Is Robinson Cano … overrated?

[abc12812 ()]

http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/10/is-robinson-cano-overrated-35970

Stephen Rhoads at RAB scooped me Thursday. My intention had been to write a
post investigating how much money Robinson Cano might be in a position to get
once he hits free agency. Rhoads beat me to the punch, forcing me to change
my focus. Fortunately for me, I came across another idea while researching my
Cano salary post.

Rhoads was elaborating upon a rumor that Scott Boras has approached the
Yankees about renegotiating Cano’s current contract. Stephen concluded that
Robbie may be in a position to get a six year, $100 million deal from the
Yankees. He linked to a Mike Axisa post from the summer that suggested Cano
may be due for a six year, $120 million pay out. Those contract numbers
represent serious bank for Robbie, but Cano is a steal at those prices
because he’s one of the best players in baseball … right? Right?

Robinson is an immensely talented baseball player. He’s tantalized fans and
scouts alike with his natural ability since he burst onto the scene in 2005
to replace an injured (and awful) Tony Womack. He locked up his reputation as
one of the best players in the entire sport in 2010, when he had his best
season to date. He reinforced his reputation as one of the game’s best with
a stellar 2011 season.

An annual salary of $17 to $20 million would make Robinson Cano one of
baseball’s twenty highest paid players. That isn’t such a big deal, given
Cano’s reputation as being one of the game’s twenty best players. The dirty
little secret, however, is that, as good as Robbie is, the operative word in
these last two paragraphs is reputation. Robbie may have a reputation as
being one of the game’s best, but the numbers don’t back that up.

In terms of WAR, wOBA, Home Runs, SLG and OBP — reputation too — 2010 was
far and away Robinson’s best season in baseball. He had an amazing year,
posting 6.5 fWAR, a .389 wOBA, 29 homers, a .534 SLG and  a .381 OBP. That
was an amazing season, an All Star season to say the least. It wasn’t,
however, a top ten season in baseball that year.

Cano’s fWAR of 6.5 ranked 11th in the game in 2010 among position players.
That’s amazing, but it isn’t as amazing as the hype surrounding that season
would suggest. His wOBA rates similarly. Cano placed 12th in all of baseball
in 2010, which is truly phenomenal, but to hear people talk about it you’d
think Robbie was one of the top five hitters in the game. He wasn’t. His
.389 2010 wOBA was tied with Ryan Zimmerman‘s mark, and just .001 points
ahead of Shin-Soo Choo. Both of those guys are excellent ball players, but
neither’s 2010 season was as hyped as Cano’s.

2011 tells a similar story. Once again, Robbie had a great season. He posted
5.6 fWAR with a .375 wOBA, 28 homers, a .533 SLG and a .349 OBP. That was an
All Star caliber season, but it wasn’t one of the top seasons in all of
baseball. In 2010 he came close to having one of the top seasons in baseball.
He didn’t come close in 2011. His fWAR ranked 22nd in the entire game while
his wOBA was 27th in all of baseball. He placed just ahead of Aramis Ramirez.
Is anyone talking about giving Aramis $100 million?

This raises three questions. Is Robbie overrated, as my title implies? If so,
why is he overrated? And, regardless, given that he’s critical to the Yankees
’ long-term success and will soon be a free-agent, should he be as highly
paid as Stephen and Mike at RAB suggest? I’ll tackle these in order.

Bluntly put, Robbie is overrated. Don’t get me wrong. Robbie is great. He’s
phenomenal. I never want to see him in another uniform for the rest of his
career. But, just about everyone who follows baseball, professional and
amateur alike, talks about Cano as though he’s been one of the game’s
single best players for the last couple of seasons. That’s simply not true.
He’s been one of the top fifteen to twenty position players in the last two
seasons, but he hasn’t been as good as the hype. Perhaps this is a cruel
application of the definition of overrated, but the facts are when someone is
not as good as we claim, he is overrated.

There are two reasons why Robbie is (just a little) overrated. First, he
plays in New York. He’s succeeding on the world’s biggest stage. That will
make any star burn brighter. Second, Robbie looks so good playing baseball
that we think he’s better than he is. Cano is one of the most graceful,
exciting baseball players I’ve ever seen in a lifetime of watching this
game. When he does something good on the field, its often something
astounding, and he executes with pizazz. Whether its running down a ball in
the gap and making an impossible throw to first across his body or dropping
his bat and briefly admiring a ball that he’s just hit into the
stratosphere, Robbie does a lot of things in baseball that no one else can
do. The problem is that he does many near-impossible things so well that we
forget to notice all the essential things that he does badly, like take
pitches. We overrate Cano because he’s so much fun to watch play baseball
that we naturally think he’s better than he is.

All that said, even if we say Robbie is a top five player when he is not, he
is still a top twenty player who will be a free agent after the 2013 season
at the latest, which would be just his age 30 season. Should the Yankees make
him not just one of the top twenty highest paid position players in the game,
but one of the top twenty highest paid players, period? I vote yes,
resoundingly, slightly overrated or not (and I emphasize slightly, because
Robbie is obviously an elite player).

Since 2009 Robbie has accumulated 16.4 fWAR, while hitting .314/.361/.529,
for a .378 wOBA. That may not make him a top ten position player, but it does
rank 13th in the game during that time. Among second basemen only Ben Zobrist
and Chase Utley have been better during that stretch, and not by much.
Setting defense aside, Robbie’s .378 wOBA during that stretch is 14th in the
game and tops among all second basemen. Having turned 29 this October, Robbie
figures to be one of the game’s elite second basemen for the next five or
six years. He figures to be worth at least $18 million a season to the
Yankees. The team should pay him fairly and lock him up for a few more
seasons if it can. He is, after all, perhaps the game’s best second basemen,
even if he’s not perhaps its best player.

--
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◆ From: 140.112.25.133
推 bearisgod:還好 現在NY會被認為是overrated應該是A-Rod
推 jagr:作者說被高估是因為Cano不是聯盟最頂尖球員之一，但又同時認
→ jagr:為他是前15~20的野手，還可能是最好的二壘手，不禁讓人想問
→ jagr:那被高估的比較點是甚麼?有很多人或共識Cano是前十的野手嗎?
推 Connec:看薪水吧
推 bearisgod:薪水跟身手的比較吧
推 fakejacy:Is NY Yankees overrated?
推 bonoo:overrate 和overpay不一樣吧
推 ultratimes:Jeter如果不論效益單論場上表現那也是...
推 pikachu123:CANO 才14M哪裡Overrated...
推 wmp12linux:今天風浪小 天氣好 KIZAKULA浮標準備好了
→ pikachu123:Cano要說的話就是防守不夠好 加上都不選球 其他都很OK
推 charlie01:I Don'T Care. 反正他的實績.態度和目前合約都讓人滿意
→ charlie01:就這樣
→ charlie01:噢 還有他的防守其實不差 至少已經是中上了 XD
推 Connec:對不起我看錯了 看成overpay XDDD
→ j07242054:yes yes of course he is
推 TMAC20916:樓上能說得這麼斬釘截鐵?
推 douglas56:CANO防守很不錯的...
推 jason12308:中南美球員的守備有它的獨到之處...
推 chancewen:重點是他沒聽到痛痛的消息吧:D
→ j07242054:to TMAC 因為在洋基阿
→ x24627785:overrated跟overpaid沒關係阿
→ alexarod:完全不懂1F在說什麼..A-Rod overrated?? 別鬧了..
推 jagr:我只是覺得說一個球員overrated，倒底評斷標準在哪?
推 yuuyee:Cano防守不夠好?? 我差點噴飯
推 fatoilyo:Cano防守不好...真懷疑你有看過MLB嗎?
推 asdfzx:Cano已經沒得挑了 拜託
推 iluy:XDDDDD
→ abc12812:UZR給Cano的生涯總分是-39.9，不知道是真的很差還怎樣?
推 s33202627:真得很好奇有這種砲瓦 防守也比CANO好的球員有幾個0.0
→ abc12812:是說也有很多外國球探認為以他身材最後要移防1B就是了
→ austincold:是因為捧過頭嗎?之前Utley打更好時好像沒被這樣評過
推 pikachu123:他UZR是負的 防守說不上好 但我沒說他爛 要跳針也不是
→ pikachu123:這樣
→ pikachu123:因為Utley 生涯UZR +88.5 找不到地方挑骨頭
推 Tampa:說cano防守不夠好 是說瞎上身嗎
推 charlie01:我不是說他很好 不過uzr這數據的片面與謎樣應該不用多說
→ charlie01:同一個人同一年光是兩個網站算出來的可能就有不小差距
→ charlie01:更不用說大幅變動是家常便飯 以他自己來說
→ charlie01:06是-8.3 07變成+7.5(這可是前幾名的成績) 08又變-11.2
→ charlie01:而且-39.9是生涯7年加起來的數字不是平均 這是因為生涯
→ charlie01:7年中有2年加起來就達到-33 包括新人年
→ charlie01:被說守備變好的近三年 數字都在-3以內
推 pikachu123:但就是不夠好不是嗎 有進步但是跟一些神級的還是有明
→ pikachu123:顯差距 以Utley來說他沒有一年是負的 Cano Range有點小
推 SlamKai:Utley:二壘很難嗎 ( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ
→ charlie01:所以我第一句就是說他現在"其實不差"."也算中上"這樣
→ abc12812:TZ給Cano分數倒是不錯，不過近兩年有退化跡象
→ charlie01:除了range 綜合看他現在傳球順暢度反應能力等等
→ abc12812:Brandon Phillips剛好相反，UZR很好TZ很差
→ charlie01:我自認為那句話是還可以 至於討論中另有板友語氣比較激
→ charlie01:或者針對皮卡丘你那句 那就和我無關了 XD
推 pikachu123:當然就是因為Cano很優秀才拿Utley出來比 隨便哪個人就
→ charlie01:另外也只是補充一下abc那敘述 因為一開始唯一只丟一個
→ charlie01:-39.9 很容易看起來就馬上覺得糟得非常可怕 XD
→ pikachu123:可以出來比Utley嗎
→ pikachu123:這應該常有的事 像鐵爺 TZ跟UZR就有點差
→ charlie01:唔 你一開始說他不夠好可能是愛深責切 不過反正對我來說
→ charlie01:球隊現在2B有這樣的人站先發各方面我都很滿意了就是了XD
→ charlie01:攻擊數字年紀健康狀態合約都沒什麼好挑剔的
推 tsming:防守數據很謎的,二壘砲貴一點我覺得可以接受
推 tsming:何況第二名第三名輸第一名也很正常吧XD
推 dwyanelin:Cano根本是強&帥的完美合體
→ x24627785:看推文就知道一堆YESPN養出的球迷
推 porten812:都給你們說就好了啊
推 dp44:講得他好爛的樣子 事實上就整體而言 比CANO好的 也沒幾個-.-
推 PlusP:綜合全大聯盟二壘手來說,Cano已經沒啥好挑剔了
→ PlusP:身體健康,有POWER,打擊技巧也全面,防守中上...
推 dp44:除了選球:)
推 frakx:contact好，比較不愛選
推 yeah8466:雖然不愛選球至少打得不錯啊...以2B來說Cano真的很不錯了
推 flyintmtc:不愛選但他也不是風扇阿~
推 dp44:如果還有選球就太全面了XD
推 TMAC20916:沒選球 打擊率還是三成阿 至少不是盲打XD
推 brighton16:以二壘砲來說算物有所值.再有選球眼的話就不是這種價錢
推 animos:Cuz UZR is a piece of shit
→ waderu:葛雷諾: 如果挖地瓜都可以開HR, 選球要來幹嘛?
推 jimmihg:Cano這種2B你還奢求什麼?不然還要誰?又不是每隊都有阿特力
推 burdette:Cano已經是目前大聯盟最強的二壘手之一 至少是排行前三