[情報] Yu Darvish Scouting Report

[abc12812 ()]

http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/11/08/yu-darvish-scouting-report

Life is filled with difficult, vague, and unknowable questions. Yet
occasionally you get an easy one like 'who's the best pitching prospect in
Japan?' Answering anyone other than Yu Darvish is like saying another flavor
of Tic-Tac is better than orange. It's technically just an opinion, but any
other opinion is wrong.

It's possible someone like Hisashi Iwakuma outperforms Darvish stateside,
just like it's possible the reason Zooey Deschanel split with the dude from
Death Cab is she stumbled upon my writing and fell in love with me via my
word magic. There's a parallel universe where it'll happen, but it probably
won't be this one.

Yu Darvish is good, on that we can all agree. The question of just how good,
requires a little more insight and is, presumably, the reason you came here.

Darvish's last start came versus the Saiama Seibu Lions, a perennial
powerhouse in Nippon Professional Baseball. Through the magic of the
interwebs you can watch it here (http://www.justin.tv/asdfg585/b/298631204).
This start provided my first extended look at one of the planet's most hyped
prospects.

My previous exposure to Darvish, came via short stints in the World Baseball
Classic and YouTube videos, had left me kind of lukewarm on his prospect
status. But the more I see him, the more I bullish I become.

Basic Info

The half-Iranian Darvish towers over most of his Japanese rivals. His lanky
6-foot-5 frame could easily add 15 pounds of muscle without sacrificing any
of his excellent athleticism.

Darvish has been a truly dominant force in Japan for several season now. A
four-time All Star, Darvish is in the midst of a five year run posting
sub-2.00 ERA's (a NPB record) and thrice has had a WHIP of 0.90 or lower
while twice being named the league's MVP. Over his four full seasons as a
starter he has maintained a K:BB ratio of nearly 4.4:1 while whiffing over a
batter per inning.

There's no way to meaningfully splice the numbers in which Darvish doesn't
come out as one of the handful of greatest pitchers in Japanese history. If
he isn't the best of all time at his age (24), he's at least on the Mount
Rushmore.

Stuff

The righthander works with a deep array of pitches, common for top Japanese
hurlers. He throws four-seam, two-seam and cut fastballs and compliments them
with at least three different breaking balls. I've also seen reports of
Darvish mixing in a change-up and the ever elusive shuuto, often referred to
as a 'gyroball' in the US, where the batter sees a dot and thus reads
breaking ball but the pitch actually stays straight -- think of it like a
backup slider.

Darvish has well-above-average arm strength. His fastball sat 151-155 km/h or
93-95 MPH for you non-metric types out there. Able to hit his spots around
the knees while occasionally going upstairs for effect, Darvish has advanced
control of his fastball coupled with the ability to sink, cut, or run the
ball inside. His fastball doesn't move a ton, but it does move and move late.
Everything Darvish throws off his fastball is heavy. Guys like him keep bat
makers in business; Darvish will leave many big leaguers with toothpicks in
their hands.

A couple different forms of slider are evident in Darvish's arsenal; one with
more horizontal break, one vertical. He showed very good control, able to
throw sliders for strikes, utilizing them most often early in the count.
Occasionally he would sharpen the break and throw the pitch out of zone with
two-strikes. When he did, the results were nasty.

He'll work in a very slow curve ball in the low 60 MPH range, just to keep
batters off-balance. If you're squaring off against Darvish, you have to be
ready for the ball to come in at pretty much any speed.

I didn't see a below-average pitch from Darvish. He doesn't have super, elite
stuff like a Verlander but everything is good. I'd grade his fastball a 65,
he seemed to have the most confidence in it. He probably has four or five
other pitches that are 50-55 grades on the scouting scale to go along with
60+ command.

Assorted Thoughts

    His pitch sequencing impressed me. Darvish seems to have a real plan off
attack. It's an aggressive plan. He mixes speeds very well, especially early
in the count then goes for the kill by running a fastball at your knuckles.
He didn't pitch around guys, but wasn't reckless. There were a few fastballs
in the Seibu game that hung over the middle that he might not be able to get
away with at the MLB level but he seems like the kind of pitcher who'll
figure out what works quickly and adapt.
    Darvish is a really excellent fielder. A two-time Gold Glove winner in
the NPB he'd immediately be on of the best fielding pitchers in the bigs upon
his arrival.
    There's a good amount of functional deception in his delivery. By that I
mean, he seems to hide the ball well without killing all efficiency in his
mechanics.
    He utilizes his lower half very well, excellent hip rotation. If we've
taught you nothing else about baseball mechanics it should be that hip
rotation IS power.
    I could nitpick a few small things in his delivery, but I don't see the
point. He grew up in a different culture, with a different way of teaching
mechanics. It's all about what works for you, this is what works for his
body. He's young, healthy, durable. He repeats well. He's athletic.
    Darvish's statistical profile is awfully similar to Daisuke Matsuzaka.
While Dice-K's struggles in recent years may taint that comparison in the
minds of some, don't forget that Matsuzaka was worth 7.2 WAR over his first
two seasons in Boston.

The terrific Eno Sarris over at FanGraphs points out an important difference
between the two Japanese hurlers:

     "Darvish has avoided the notorious overwork that plagued Matsuzaka’s
amateur and early pro careers. Like Matsuzaka’s teenage years, young Darvish
pitched at Koshien, Japan’s national high school baseball tournament. Unlike
Matsuzaka, he doesn’t quite have a 250-pitch, 17-inning complete game on his
resume. Darvish’s longest outing was a 166-pitch game that he lost on a
walk-off home run in the 10th inning. Also, unlike Matsuzaka, Darvish was
eased into his pro career: he threw 94.1 innings and 149.2 innings in his
first two pro years. Matsuzaka, by contrast, threw 180 innings as an 18
year-old rookie — 347.2 in his first two seasons — and set a career high
with 240.1 innings in his third. In essence, Darvish has fired fewer bullets."

Conclusion

I don't see Yu Darvish as an ace. I think the upgrade in competition will
knock him off that vaunted perch. That said, I think he's going to be a
really good MLB pitcher. I'd peg him as a 4.0 WAR starter for next season,
and there's certainly potential for him to exceed those numbers. I see a
well-above-average all around starter, a No. 2 guy on a first-division club.
I'd be displeased if my favorite club committed nine-figures to procure his
services but he has age, production, stuff, command, and poise on his side to
score a major deal.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 140.112.25.133
推 ckuforever:恩恩  果然跟我想的一樣
→ AvriLavigne:對阿
→ s955346:   同意1樓+1
推 chuyoung929:看來沒有到很好  少了美式的STUFF跟頂尖球種~~~
推 pikachu123:作者預測 WAR會有4.0 人家只是說他不是ACE
推 KusoPvt:直接看最後一段比較快
推 chihwei739:球種那裏滿分是100嗎? 65會不會太低阿?
推 ColbyRasmus:分數是20-80分，65是高於平均
推 waijr:這有點矛盾 WAR4.0在聯盟足以排到前10了 又不是ACE
推 chuyoung929:65已經是大聯盟中上球種了 我記得滿分是80~~
推 chihwei739:感謝解答~
→ chuyoung929:看樣子  達爾要靠控球跟LATE MOVEMENT來玩了~~~
推 dudu5566:投了才知道 野茂當初去MLB 也沒人預測到他會那麼殺
推 externaload:WAR 4 很高了好嗎....在10幾隊都能當1號了
推 pikachu123:作者說他很不錯阿 只是怕價格炒太高
推 KusoPvt: C.C Sabathia 09-11 WAR  4.3 / 5.0 / 6.9  (BR
→ pikachu123:他是用FG的 FG的會比較高
推 ColbyRasmus:fWAR 4.0都比今年的Grienke高了
推 leomaxex:在分區強權才會是二號啊
推 jason12308:第二段看不太懂那個比喻是什麼意思？
推 ckuforever:到PHI幾號?
推 tenbear:BR上sp war 4.0是23名(Dan Haren) Ace一般泛指各隊No.1吧
→ tenbear:換言之 前32名都能叫Ace 作者邏輯上怪怪的@@(有錯請指正)
→ kyo06:我倒覺得他們所謂的ACE是真的有能力制霸MLB的強投
→ kyo06:簡單說ACE絕對不會有20幾個....
→ kyo06:因為不是每隊的一號先發都有能力當ACE
→ LupinVI:他的ace可能是指true ace的定義 那種CY stuff等級的
→ kyo06:當然一隻球隊也不一定只有一個投手是ACE(轉頭望向費城人)
→ LupinVI:就是威力有到北極.king那種
推 SlamKai:一個ACE 兩個ACE 三個ACE  第四個有傷  第五個初生之犢
→ Herlin:看你的定義囉 有些人是以"可以進季後賽的球隊"
→ payton00045:投球機1 投球機2 投球機3 投球機4.....
→ Herlin:的NO.1 當做true ace 的標準 這就嚴格多了
→ Herlin:畢竟理論上組隊的最終目的就是要進季後賽拿冠軍
→ Herlin:如果你的NO.1 是聯盟第23好的SP 不能說你就一定進不了
→ Herlin:但確實進季後賽的球隊大概九成以上NO.1 都會比你好...
推 tenbear:我覺得ace的定義比較像不確定的概念 wiki上pitcher的定義
推 yamatai:今年進季後賽球隊裡面最弱的ACE是哪個?
→ tenbear:就是一隊最好的投手(相當於No.1吧) 一些棒球專欄作家主張
→ tenbear:要"綜合判斷" 列了一堆標準 我就不特別提了
推 Pujols5:今年WSC的ace只有3.7
推 Pujols5:最低的是酒鬼的Marcum 3.3
→ Herlin:NYY: Sabathia 6.9 TEX: Wilson 5.0 DET: Verlander 8.5
→ Herlin:TBR: Shields 6.1 PHI: Halladay 7.4 ARZ: Kennedy 5.5
→ Herlin:其他幾隊 當然本次季後賽最大特徵就是紙上看來SP越強的球隊
→ Herlin:被淘汰的越快 XU
推 gdntust:書僮不列嗎??  畢竟是最有機會奪下賽揚的人
推 usapie:不認同樓上 比較看好達比修拿賽揚..
推 GDBS:"a No. 2 guy on a first-division club."
→ GDBS:美國派出現...
推 luckyboy1800:跪求翻譯- -
推 ahiru:我剛剛看完他今年的三振集，這篇球探報告看起來還挺符合的
推 QWE55874:達比修國內王呀.在日本威很意外嗎.可見日職是投手稱霸
推 true0422:我覺得所有東西都建立於要身體健康.....0rz 松坂.....
推 QWE55874:2008年奧運對古巴先發投四局就掉4分,2009經典賽對南韓
→ QWE55874:冠軍戰出來救援,投2局失1分,要不是1郎安打,他是那場戰犯
→ jojo2147:樓上這種論調就像是季後賽爆炸的投手就不強一樣
→ jojo2147:畢竟這種國際賽場次還不算太多，是不是國內王倒是另外一
→ jojo2147:回事
推 QWE55874:我的論調他是國內王,還沒上大聯盟就把他捧的跟什麼一樣
→ QWE55874:松阪當初要上大聯盟也是被捧成會投魔球跟神一樣投手
→ QWE55874:結果也是威兩年而已.事實並沒有在日本那樣鬼神成績
→ jojo2147:那這跟在MiLB的潛力選手一樣阿，沒上去之前都不知道
→ jojo2147:你那個完全就是結果論。
→ QWE55874:還沒上去就一推人捧跟神一樣,我才會拿他國內王的事實
→ QWE55874:提醒.日職成績只能參考.畢竟日職打者怎麼跟大聯盟打者比
推 LewisHuang:國內王？不知道在腦補啥....
→ LewisHuang:要拿國際賽說嘴你直接說npb>mlb好了 經典賽日本連2冠
推 Bearcome:XDD
推 QWE55874:只在日本威過 不是國內王? 那是什麼王 他是上大聯盟了沒
→ ricky158207:這幾個討論的又不只參考NPB成績而已 投球內容也嘛有在
→ Bearcome:他當初就是NPB最強啊 不捧他捧誰 還是你在5年前就知道
推 mess0706:有的人就是迫不及待出來當大師啊，等他上了再酸就來不及
→ Bearcome:黑田比松坂不國內王啊 科科
推 pikachu123:除了這個沒別的可以說了嗎 還是你以為球探只看他日本
→ ricky158207:講 Darvish就是STUFF擺在那邊
→ pikachu123:成績 大師來點會的好嗎
→ rookiebear:所以說~未上MLB都是小聯盟王~大家都別去關注了~了解!!
→ LewisHuang:上大聯盟很難嗎？對他來說只是"想不想"而不是"行不行"
→ jojo2147:同意 stuff那段再去看一下再來說
推 NationalWang:達比休打大聯盟成績應該跟全盛期的王民建差不多
→ NationalWang:但是三振應該大勝
→ kikielle:王民建是哪號人物?
→ LewisHuang:建民、王
→ jojo2147:打名字也要打對好嗎= =
推 Tukiyomi:一鴿壘系
→ sarspieya521:看到王民建我笑了
推 awano:65不只是高於平均  是比等級稍微差一點  70是頂級 80是整個
→ awano:MLB用一隻手數得出來的人數才有
→ awano:另外這種球探報告是見仁見智  一個禮拜以前另外一篇就認為
→ awano:他是TORP
→ awano:                   "比頂級稍微差一點"  = =
→ PlayStation3:還去查了一下QWE是不是ZKOW的分身。
推 jojo2147:XD 至少他沒有強調"我看日美職棒多年"
推 wfol:松坂在scouting report上有一堆plus pitches,可惜慘在command
推 wolf0531:能不能適應投一休四和國外生活 這是達爾要先面對的
推 nickyang:松坂前兩年也沒有真的很威啊...他到美國沒健康過
→ nickyang:我以為他實力最強的時候是亞錦賽殺台灣那年，其後每況愈
→ SlamKai:WBC 回來後慘不忍睹.....  >"<
推 ahiru:我是覺得他好球帶膝蓋高度的兩個角落直球沒有控的很邊邊，只
→ ahiru:有滑球進的去，這篇說他是二號我覺得很中肯
推 xiemark:Homeland
推 meier0112:變化球command不好
推 QWE55874:可以請問PlayStation3你可以提出我是是ZKOW的分身證據嗎
→ QWE55874:你不認同我打達比修是國內王觀點,我尊重你的想法.
→ QWE55874:但不代表你可以扣我帽子說我是誰的分身,有證據就拿出來
→ QWE55874:沒證據就亂放話,抹黑我是那招?
→ LewisHuang:他只是說是不是 又沒說你就是!!....
推 QWE55874:原來只要不認同對方觀點.就可以懷疑對方是不是z的分帳號
→ LewisHuang:你不也不認同達爾就懷疑他是國內王？
→ LewisHuang:連懷疑都不行了~呵呵
推 QWE55874:隨便中傷人家是誰的分身帳號,又提不出證據,這不是引戰喔
→ LewisHuang:不是!謝謝
→ QWE55874:拿出證據來懷疑呀.沒證據就亂放話,不是中傷 抹黑喔
→ LewisHuang:有證據就不叫懷疑了就直接說你是了...
→ QWE55874:不知道在腦補啥..
→ QWE55874:不認同人家觀點喔.就可以扣人家帽子,懷疑對方是誰分身喔
→ LewisHuang:你跳針的樣子和某Z很像喔^^
推 tenbear:我認為松坂也是有威過 08年war 5.1全投手第十 07年war 3.2
推 QWE55874:你跳針的樣子和某Z更像^^
→ tenbear:第42 如果比生涯的總war BR上的數字還比黑田高(FG相反)
→ QWE55874:松阪至少在國際賽都曾經威過,達比08年奧運09經典賽投的差
→ LewisHuang:有人又開始跳針國際賽了
→ tenbear:他畢竟也有過輝煌的時期...
推 QWE55874:達比本來就只在日職威過,國際賽投的差,這是事實你說跳針
→ LewisHuang:某人的論點和某z一樣 合理懷疑你就是某z
→ QWE55874:他在日職屠殺打者,國際賽確實不靈光,說他國內王,也是事實
→ QWE55874:我也覺得你論點跟z一樣 合理懷疑你就是z分身
→ LewisHuang:你繼續跳針吧~bye
推 QWE55874:某人你也繼續跳針.
推 EEERRIICC:噗 結果是開兩個分身吵架     (誤
推 FatBearInn:QWE的國文... PS3那句意思就是查了但發現不是。
→ EEERRIICC:馬上跳針
推 ffej:不是幹麻打出來? 我看了PS3打的，我會馬上懷疑Q版友是不是
→ ffej:而且達爾目前的確是國內王啊 而且國際賽也是參考之ㄧ
→ ffej:難道不能拿出來討論嗎?
推 Bearcome:XDDD
推 FatBearInn:那不過是"你的論點好爛"的曲折表達,誤會是國文問題
推 j07242054:JUMP
→ PlayStation3:如果是的話我就說是了阿，這很難懂嘛..
→ PlayStation3:不過反應跟zkow是真的蠻像的。
→ PlayStation3:松坂的壓制力絕對是有的，只是不長，同樣長期賽的
→ PlayStation3:樣本而言說Darvish可以複製甚至勝出不為過。
→ PlayStation3:雖然都有超量投球的情形，但兩人健康程度顯然不同。
→ PlayStation3:至於國際賽那種事情就不用提了吧。
推 shancko:原文滿客觀的 不懂老美球探分數的人該自己去google一下
→ shancko:Darvish只有速球是plus以上 除此之外沒有另一球種是plus
→ shancko:但他有很多球種而且控球還不錯 所以評判他到2號還滿客觀的
→ jojo2147:是不是國內王，跟有沒有未來性被高估根本就是兩碼子事情
→ jojo2147:潛力新秀不少也屠殺過Milb，只是某Q能不能舉出他到底哪邊
→ jojo2147:被高估只能當個國內王呢?
→ jojo2147:老實說會在那邊戰分身也是因為你不停打模糊戰
推 ejtch:上屆wbc Darvish era2.08 這樣叫國內王喔?
→ ejtch:那 chapman 5.68, Oswalt 5.56, Ted Lilly 5.68是什麼王?
→ ejtch:上屆wbc Matsuzaka 的 ERA, WHIP,SO也全部輸Darvish
推 LewisHuang:就酸民阿 沒得酸只能酸這個
推 viscount:NPB今年以前是看各球場用球,今年統一用球
推 airphone:國內王是高X慶的專名詞，請別亂舉例。。。
→ airphone:國際賽投得差？？？.....那樓上E大那些投手不就。。。
推 arai12367:66