May be time to trade Felix Hernandez

[abc12812 ()]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/19137/may-be-time-to-trade-felix-hernandez



In 2011, the Seattle Mariners finished 29 wins behind the Texas Rangers. They
finished 19 wins behind the Los Angeles Angels.

Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik has adamantly refused to listen to
offers for ace right-hander Felix Hernandez, no matter the desire of the New
York media to stir up trade rumors.

But that was B.A. -- Before Albert.

"It certainly creates a challenge in our division, no doubt," Zduriencik said
Thursday after the Angels reached terms with Albert Pujols. "A bigger
challenge than had already been there."

Besides Pujols and fellow free agent signee C.J. Wilson, the Angels have
young stud Mike Trout ready to make a big impact on the win column. They have
Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo still making close to the league minimum salary
while providing solid production and likely improvement. They may get Kendrys
Morales back. With Wilson, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, their rotation now
possesses three of the American League's top-10 starting pitchers of 2011.

In other words, the Angels are going to be extremely tough for at least a
couple years, before Haren is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season,
before Pujols perhaps starts declining, and before the young players start
requiring contracts that will eat up larger chunks of the team budget.

Meanwhile, the Rangers appear ready to absorb the loss of Wilson -- they'll
move Neftali Feliz into the rotation, and they still have a core of players
in their primes in Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Elvis
Andrus. They have money to spend, although some of that will have to go
signing Hamilton and Kinsler to extensions. Still, don't be surprised if they
win the rights to Yu Darvish, as they seek an ace to replace Wilson.

Add it up and you have to do a lot of funny math to make the Mariners
contenders in 2012 or '13, even if they sign Prince Fielder.

That takes us to 2014 -- the final year of Hernandez's contract. At that
point, facing years of losing and poor run support in his rear-view mirror,
what are the odds Hernandez would sign an extension with the Mariners? He'd
still be turning just 29 years old early in the 2015 season, meaning he'd be
ripe for a mega-contract before that season from one of the usual big-market
franchises (which includes the Angels and Rangers).

The future of the Mariners sits with 2011 rookie gem Michael Pineda, plus
pitching prospects Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, all of
whom have top-of-the-rotation potential. Outside of second baseman Dustin
Ackley, however, the position players don't rate as high, and the guys who do
have a chance to impact the major league level (Nick Franklin, Alex Liddi,
Vinnie Catricala) need more time in the minors.

That means, realistically, the Mariners are aiming for 2014 at the earliest.
By then, Hernandez's trade value won't be as high; and if they are
competitive by then, it would be because Pineda, Hultzen, Paxton and Walker
are in the rotation ... which, in theory, would make King Felix more
expendable.

So do you trade Hernandez now, when his value his highest and his arm
healthy? I'm not a fan of advocating trading a superstar, since those trades
rarely work out (see: the Indians and Phillies trading Cliff Lee). But
sometimes they do, such as when the Rangers acquired Andrus, Feliz and Matt
Harrison for Mark Teixeira. None of those players were actually that close to
the majors, so the Rangers took a big risk that paid off. If the Mariners
would be willing to trade Hernandez, they would want at least one bat that is
major league ready with big-time power potential ... plus a lot more.

So, yes, to fan the fire: Jesus Montero, Brett Gardner, Manny Banuelos and
another prospect could get Zduriencik thinking, no?

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 140.112.25.133
推 lookers:!!
推 AWainwright:!!
推 qwsa1212:如果king離開水兵我就把拉掉= =
推 RobertLucas:no
推 ro054392:!!
推 mikachen:No. 用那三隻換King?
推 cena0605:================水兵GM 說過絕對不會交易他的說..======
推 ro054392:不過那幾隻也都很有潛力說
推 whalelover:No.
→ prereality:動到Gardner...
推 JacqueJones:前幾天不是看到水兵GM不會考慮交易King嗎?
推 evilAllen:Pujols is Montero like 現金人真會挑時間放話XD
→ JacqueJones:如果真的想交易 肯定不少隊會打電話吧
→ ro054392:連我這役男都想打電話過去問為什麼了
推 Zamned:紅人要衝了嗎？ 紅人可以給出整個內野野手包裹 XD
推 kevin340332:Gardner去水手? 水手是有多少個第一棒腿哥阿XD
推 ps20012001:交易他...那目的是換什麼呢..@@? 交易王牌風潮嗎..
推 GP03D:天使嚇到水兵了
→ nopo51:目的是重建。我不希望是真的
推 lsmking7219:要動到Gardner的話 現金人還是好好考慮一下吧
推 devilsky:這三隻能換到Felix $man應該不會猶豫
推 COLLA1003:那三個換一個25歲Cy 我想沒有人會猶豫吧
推 prereality:絕對會 Gardner走了沒人扛LF 如果是Nunez就沒差了
推 four5:偷笑都來不及  還要考慮啥XD
→ COLLA1003:尤其NYY那殘破的SP陣容
→ four5:外野市場隨便補都有  CY SP哪裡找
→ COLLA1003:LF市場找找一定有 腿弟也不是找不到替代品
推 steven211037:還需要考慮? 當然換了阿
推 kurtzz:好吧 再加個Figgins好了
推 show431389:每年都有幻想文-  -
推 ramirez:幻想文
推 ARod0113:換了NYY可以再用$去買OF 年輕的CY強投不可多得阿～
推 lookers:一OPS+91的LF跟FELIX比 你真的會猶豫? 猶豫啥勒
推 taker627:新萬用包
推 adam323:說不定King很想到洋基~除了打擊還有他小時候的偶像在
→ adam323:當初King選擇跟水手簽約不就是因為Garcia在水手
推 CGary:考慮的意思是: 考慮一下會不會晚上做夢會笑醒...
推 albomxx:他小時候的偶像是誰?
推 COLLA1003:Freddy Garcia
推 kennyone:免幻想...=.="
推 chawer:大白天的 做什麼夢?
推 prereality:不是Silva嗎(誤)
推 david18:說要考慮一下的是在搞笑喔~"~
→ ss184:水手要換就一次A大點吧XDD
→ ss184:水兵大概除了RF 1B之外 剩下都是洞..隨便換都有用XDD
→ Huff:引戰性很夠的幻想文
推 mcshang:的確有點幻想文，原網址下面有外國鄉民提到水兵需要的是大
→ mcshang:棒子，而開出來那幾個就連montero都沒有完整證明過自己，
推 Musiq:Montero+Nunez+Gardner for xxx(請自行代入)
→ mcshang:更不用說腿弟的打擊型態根本無法挹注強大火力給打線
推 mdfh:每年都來一次...
推 leoturkey:拿Cano來再說啦
推 steveparker:就是無法挹注砲火才能加入水手阿 不然打線就要得分了
推 JustinSmoak:那要連我也交易掉嗎
推 mcshang:steve大是說"水兵就是要維持若打線嗎?"XD
推 hankstyIe:把Nunez交易掉吧 只會E
→ miabcd199:那三隻..
推 Dimitre:不太可能 已經在重建中還交易掉他根本沒票房
推 NationalWang:有一朗和川崎宗則誰說沒票房的
推 Langerhans:覺得說出什麼動到Gardner要考慮的根本是反串 = =
推 eeqqww112233:腿弟很好阿Q^^^Q
推 BatmanII:這種文看到都想罵髒話了
推 ELF004:腿弟是不錯 去年Montero九月也很好  不過我們說的是KING
→ ELF004:閉著眼睛也要換
推 david18:推樓上~Gardner沒有不好，只是在King等級的交易中
→ david18:他也只能當配菜
推 hikaruton:神經(掛電話)
推 chawer:真要交易,不動到cano等級的是不可能的
推 DRPL:動到CANO  那就不用談了  XD
→ iluy:GGs being GGs
推 FENOR:動到Cano無疑是在NYY的二壘開大洞
推 taker627:Z大人很好，每年這樣被騷擾都沒生氣
→ FENOR:不過討論到King，年中Cashman據聞曾經提過一個包裹
→ FENOR:不過直接被打搶
→ ss184:其實也很難說 說不定KING來紐約不能適應?Montero去水手變30H
→ ss184:R打者100打點的捕手呢!!一切都未知數呀
推 ELF004:提包裹打槍又不痛不癢
推 winson543:這麼穩的投手難尋  打者花點錢買就有了
→ hikaruton:什麼都難說就別說了唄~
推 taker627:哈哈哈，水手幹麻沒事拿王牌去賭未知數，神經病
推 taker627:montero先在洋基打出30HR再來說
推 Musiq:說不定 你怎麼不說明年Nova25勝 Gardner30hr
→ j07242054:科科 漁獲豐富
推 jacky1990b:天使:
推 Purekim:.....................
推 Sechslee:( ′-`)y-～
推 prereality:結果去水手染上屍毒 30HR變30H
推 sylviehsiang:屍毒威力有那麼爛嗎? 不是300K?
→ kurtzz:先打出來再說吧 King可是已經證明過的
※ scottada2003:轉錄至看板 NY-Yankees                              12/10 16:58
→ Tukiyomi:幻想文也能釣到一堆
推 integra715:貼文讓酸民高潮狂酸,借刀殺人的功夫一流.
推 forever23:水兵頭殼如果壞掉了 就有可能換
推 micotosai:標題都MAY BE了
推 antiwash5566:幻想文還有一堆球迷以為那包多大哈哈
推 WLR:拿同花打贏full house，是賭客的夢想
推 GianniC:水手:我們用king跟你們交換主場  我們去紐約  你們
→ GianniC:跟king在西雅圖...
推 immortalqq:那包換的到Z絕對走不出西雅圖
→ minimum:每年都來一次的幻想文 自high
→ buttery:為了讓KING有希望能進季後賽玩玩，也許交易是個好選擇。
推 kwpn:king離開水手,水手還能玩啥
推 kenro:又在幻想了
推 roger744:用主場交易XDDD Good idea!!
推 Epsilon:看到水兵死也不換King，東岸媒體要崩潰了。