Trading ace Hernandez would benefit M’s

[abc12812 ()]

http://tinyurl.com/7eyk5xp

Jack Zduriencik knew why I had called before I even asked a question.

Depending upon your perspective, it’s either good or bad that Jack Z is
reading my mind.

I say good, because Jack Z is always pleasant about it, and maybe he and I
can one day take our act on the road.

“Trade Felix,” I say.

“No,” Jack Z replies.

Now before Mariners fans get all upset with me again for suggesting to their
GM that he trade right-hander Felix Hernandez, allow me to cite two recent
developments:

‧ The Padres’ boffo return for right-hander Mat Latos, a pitcher who isn’t
nearly as good as Hernandez (who is?).

‧ The Athletics’ strong return for left-hander Gio Gonzalez, another
pitcher who isn’t nearly as good as Hernandez.

‧ The stunning offseason additions of the Rangers and Angels, who no longer
are simply the best teams in the AL West, but perhaps the best in the
American League.

The Mariners, even if they somehow sign free-agent first baseman Prince
Fielder, aren’t going to make the playoffs next season, and probably wouldn’
t qualify in 2013, either.

I understand the fan opposition to trading Hernandez, but the goal is not to
destroy the M’s, it’s to make them better.

The Yankees, as I wrote in March, are a logical trade partner, deep in young
talent and strong enough financially to absorb the $58 million left on the
final three years of Hernandez’s contract. For King Felix, other teams would
jump, too.

Zduriencik, though, says that he doesn’t want to hear it, that his plan is
to keep Hernandez and make him the anchor for the team’s emerging rotation.

I get that — the Mariners’ young starting pitchers, if everything breaks
right, might rank among the best in the game in two or three years.

But here’s the problem:

Hernandez, 25, is under contract only through 2014. And if the Mariners don’
t turn it around during that time, he will not stay in Seattle out of the
goodness of his heart.

He’ll be gone.

As Yankees GM Brian Cashman advised reporters last season when judging A.J.
Burnett, it’s time for the Mariners to “smoke the objective pipe.”

As the Rays have shown in the AL East, the only way to compete with
high-revenue behemoths is to assemble a large number of high-end young
players and have them hit at once.

That was the Padres’ motivation for trading Latos, the Royals’ motivation
for trading Zack Greinke. Granted, Hernandez is at a different level.
Granted, the M’s can support much higher payrolls. But why not commit fully
to rebuilding?

OK, Jack, your turn:

“I still say, as I’ve said all along, we’ve still got the best young
pitcher in the game, and that’s pretty darned good,” Zduriencik said,
referring to Hernandez.

“One thing we have here — what we’re really excited about — is young
pitching. You take Felix and (Michael) Pineda. We think James Paxton is going
to be really good. We’ll give him a chance in spring training. Same with
(Danny) Hultzen. We’ve got a young kid, Taijuan Walker, who might be the
best of them all. Erasmo Ramirez . . .

“We’re a year or less from having some of these really good arms sitting on
our ballclub. It’s kind of what we’re hanging our hats on right now. All of
us are excited about what’s going to happen in the next year or two.”

And Jack, I’d be right there with you, if only the Mariners could hit.

The M’s last season scored 556 runs, ranking last in the majors for the
second straight year. The Padres — playing in cavernous Petco Park, without
the benefit of a DH, in their first season without Adrian Gonzalez — scored
593.

Even if the Mariners could get Fielder — and I’m highly skeptical that he
would choose them over a team with a more realistic chance of contending soon
— how much of a difference would he actually make?

The M’s seem to believe that the effect would be exponential, that they
would get not just Fielder’s 120 RBI, but benefit from his ripple effect
throughout the lineup. Fielder would absorb the middle-of-the-order pressure.
Younger hitters such as Mike Carp, Justin Smoak and Kyle Seager would be free
to be themselves.

Makes sense in theory, but Fielder might walk 200 times in such a lineup.
Opponents would have little incentive to pitch to him, preferring to attack
younger hitters instead.

More to the point, what happens if the M’s don’t get Fielder? Catcher John
Jaso currently stands as their big addition. And it’s too late in the
offseason for them to make other moves of consequence.

No, better to go the other way.

Not all of the Mariners’ young pitchers and hitters are going to develop in
the way that club officials anticipate. The more prospects a team collects,
the greater the chances that it will succeed.

Zduriencik had the right idea last summer, sacrificing wins to acquire a
strong return for right-hander Doug Fister and a lesser one for lefty Erik
Bedard.

Now Jack Z should go to the Yankees and demand essentially the same package I
suggested last March — catcher Jesus Montero, infielder Eduardo Nunez and
right-hander Ivan Nova plus righty Dellin Betances or lefty Manny Banuelos.

Maybe the Yankees wouldn’t budge on Nova, who went 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA last
season. Fine, tell them to include two different youngsters, make it a
5-for-1. For King Felix, the Yankees would part waters, move mountains and —
 surprise! — blow past the dreaded luxury-tax threshold yet again.

Jack?

“You get people who will throw it out there: ‘Don’t forget, if you ever
want to do something (with Hernandez), let me know,’” Zduriencik said,
without mentioning the Yankees specifically.

“It’s more of an inquiry than anything else . . . People are courteous.
They understand where we stand. We’ve been pretty strong on our desire to
keep him here.”

I know, Jack, I know.

We’ll talk again soon.

---
不過水手部落格(USS Mariner/Prospect Insider)
普遍的看法好像是比較想用Pineda當交易籌碼就是了

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 140.112.25.133
→ Tukiyomi:又要釣魚了
推 arsia:賣出去 等一朗退休 水手還要賣誰的臉
推 okinawa8:                                Ackley:
→ buttery:可以學隔壁的運動家養族譜，反正目前看來KING到這個合約結
→ buttery:束前，沒有機會進季後賽，等真的合約結束，應該也會想進FA
推 four5:又來了 zzzz........
→ abc12812:Felix明年開始可就不便宜了，我不覺得交易是很離譜的想法
→ kennyone:trade King Felix...  you think too much.....
推 tunababy:那不是一般的不便宜...所以交易困難度很高...
推 sexyfunny:現今人不衝一下嗎？雖然這必定會把Montero交易出去
→ sexyfunny:  金
推 mika0120:借轉水兵版
※ mika0120:轉錄至看板 Mariners                                    12/29 14:16
推 jason12308:除了現金人，沒人會買了...他等很久了
推 nickyang:Ptt法則一:任何人想交易King都是搶劫
推 Pennyjr:ptt法則二:球迷的交易文永遠不是搶劫，都是為了別隊好
推 j07242054:衝去被掛電話
推 aintvrdfg:yy
→ PlayStation3:怒掛一通。
推 mika0120:果然有人要上鉤了
推 qwe115109:不易外
推 KayRain:都不要賣啊 就繼續陪打吧
推 tys1231:洋基要交易到~可能要把農場通通給水兵!
推 vg175:如果剩下的薪水要洋基通吃,也不見得農場就會被清光光
推 sezna:水兵到底要重建幾年
推 jerryklu:如果說簽小王子都沒救，那賣了不是一樣在陪打?
推 mdfh:今年第二次 XD
→ j07242054:剩下的薪水是說水兵整隊剩下的薪水嗎
推 tunababy:King Felix 12:$18.5M, 13:$19.5M, 14:$20M
推 MontaEllis8:以他的身手和年紀20M還OK吧?
推 johnnynono:確實有點肥的約,當然他值得
→ johnnynono:但當你花20M養ACE球隊卻年年無緣季後賽時就有點浪費
→ johnnynono:還是看水手自己評估重建進度如何,如果覺得快好了
→ johnnynono:就不要交易了,若體質還是差那交易似乎聰明點
→ badblue:其實NYY今年還沒出手是因為在等King？Orz
推 mdfh:天使條子今年玩這麼大 可能還要等等
推 azlbf:如果約到隻錢沒辦法形成戰力 不如趁有價來搶劫
→ azlbf:如果能搶到NYY的強打+雙B 整個就大賺阿
推 magicagar:水手需要的是道長  不是KING啊  XD
→ Huff:還不到一個月,又來釣了
→ yeng1217:是說某人被劣文所以也不能發問了XD
推 tunababy:當你想要dump20M的約，而市場上大概只有洋基能吃的下時
→ tunababy:你要如何大賺？
推 tunababy:拿Latos和Gio Gonzales來比根本天差地遠...
推 immortalqq:latos跟gio的等級的確不能跟king比 但薪水也是
推 erickruklin:az大在說笑吧  整個農場給水手 還是有人會說洋基搶劫
→ erickruklin:等下被砲就不好了  還是不要說水兵大賺這種話
推 mrbioway:現金人準備好了
推 ILER:媒體崩潰完 換別人崩潰就對了= =
推 SatoTakuma:A-ROD <=> King
推 dw1012:上面那個換不到
→ PlayStation3:把AROD換回來是想看西雅圖人噓暴自家選手嘛？
推 hirdaramani:標準自爽文
噓 ppoll2:大家人真好