Keith Law's farm system ranking

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1. San Diego Padres

Without Anthony Rizzo, they no longer have a top-25 prospect in their system,
but in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant
roles in the big leagues, they're ahead of everyone else. Some of these
players, especially from the 2011 draft, will develop into stars. But there
are so many prospects here with high floors, players who would be top-10 or
top-five in other systems but are 11-20 here (such as Robbie Erlin or Edinson
Rincon), that they are well-positioned to compete even with modest major
league payrolls during the next five to six years. Fans who were upset at the
sudden departures of GM Jed Hoyer and assistant GM Jason McLeod for the Cubs
should find solace in the fact that the prospects they helped bring into the
system (along with many other scouts and execs, including Chris Gwynn, now
with Seattle, and Jaron Madison and Randy Smith, still in San Diego) remain
in place.

2. Tampa Bay Rays

If you favor ceiling over probability, you could make a strong argument for
having the Rays ahead of the Padres, based on the fact that this system could
quite easily produce six to eight players who end up as grade-60 players or
better in the majors. After that first tier, however, there's a lot less
probability here than there was a year or two ago, and several executives
from other clubs pointed out that the Rays have a gap in their prospect
pipeline coming up that will be filled only if some of their 2011 draft picks
move faster than anticipated.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

One of the many reasons criticism of Rogers Communications, the owner of the
Blue Jays, for being stingy with free agents is so ignorant is that the club
has spent aggressively in the amateur markets during the past three years,
grabbing high-ceiling high school players and Latin American prospects by
stockpiling picks and paying whatever it took to sign those players. They are
the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter.

4. St. Louis Cardinals

They've drafted very well in the past few years, which has to be heartening
to Astros fans, as Houston just hired Jeff Luhnow, who oversaw the Cards'
recent drafts, as GM. St. Louis also has done an excellent job of developing
the players it's drafted. I really like how the Cards are set up to contend
continuously during the next five years.

5. Kansas City Royals

Despite some major losses via promotion (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny
Duffy) and injury (John Lamb), the system remains extremely deep and still
has two high-ceiling prospects at the top, Bubba Starling and Wil Myers.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks

Those two picks in the top 10 in June certainly helped, but the Diamondbacks
also have added a few strong arms through trades and are seeing progress from
their 2008 draft crop.

7. Texas Rangers

The Rangers have ranked highly the past few years -- including No. 1 once --
because of depth and ceiling, but they're now more about the latter than the
former. (Note that I don't consider Yu Darvish or any player with Nippon
Professional Baseball experience a "prospect" for the purpose of this ranking
or the top 100.)

8. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates' top tier of prospects is very strong, but there's surprisingly
little depth given how high they've drafted and how much they've spent on
amateur talent.

9. Oakland Athletics

This was a bottom-10 system, maybe bottom-five, when the offseason began, but
the A's restocked with the trades of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew
Bailey. They're still pitching-heavy for a major league club that has
struggled to find bats.

10. New York Yankees

I might be jumping the gun here, but I see a lot of star potential on their
bottom few affiliates, including new acquisition Jose Campos from Seattle, to
go with the two power arms from their Scranton club (Manny Banuelos and
Dellin Betances). The flaw in the system is the lack of near-in talent,
especially position players, who could either help the big club soon or
provide more fodder for trades.

11. Seattle Mariners

What I said about the Pirates applies with the Mariners as well: It's a great
front five -- led by 2011 top pick Danny Hultzen and the recently acquired
Jesus Montero -- but the gap between No. 5 and No. 10 in their system is huge.

12. Los Angeles Dodgers

If pitching wins championships, the Dodgers are in pretty good shape going
forward, as their system is loaded with power arms but is relatively light on
position players.

13. Colorado Rockies

This is an underrated system, maybe even here by me. I like systems in which
the prospects in the No. 8-12 range are just as interesting (if not as
high-upside or high-probability) as the prospects in the No. 1-4 range, and
the Rockies' lack of a complex-league team can make some of their youngest
prospects look less advanced than they are when they jump right to the
Pioneer League.

14. Minnesota Twins

I pick on these guys for taking low-ceiling college arms with great control,
but they have quietly mixed in some interesting high school bats and added a
few high-impact Latin American prospects.

15. Los Angeles Angels

There's only one real sure thing in the system (Mike Trout), but the Angels
have a number of guys who are one major adjustment away from becoming impact
prospects.

16. Atlanta Braves

They have reaped as little from the draft the past two years as anyone,
taking low-ceiling college guys with early picks, staying at or under MLB's
bonus recommendations and having less luck on the international market. It's
telling that the major question on every position-player prospect in their
top 10 is whether he'll hit.

17. Baltimore Orioles

I see two likely superstars, one more potential superstar with lower
probability … and after about seven or eight names, it goes off a cliff.

18. Boston Red Sox

This system is terribly thin up top given the money the Red Sox have spent in
the past few years on amateur players. I do see a large group of prospects
from low Class A and below that should produce a couple of breakout prospects
in 2012, including Brandon Jacobs, Garin Cecchini, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes
and Sean Coyle.

19. Cincinnati Reds

I would have ranked the Reds several spots higher before the Mat Latos trade,
probably top 10. Outside of Devin Mesoraco, every guy with high ceiling in
this system played in low Class A or below in 2011, and they're all quite
high risk to go with the high reward.

20. Chicago Cubs

An unfairly maligned system, in my opinion -- not a great system, but not a
disastrous one. And I say that as someone who's relatively bearish on some of
the Cubs' more famous prospects.

21. Washington Nationals

This was potentially a top-10 system before the Gio Gonzalez trade, no worse
than top 15. But after dealing A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock and Derek Norris --
probably three of the Nats' top 10 guys before the Gio swap -- this system
lacks depth.

22. New York Mets

It's actually getting better here, but rebuilding a system takes years, and
the Mets have really just begun to inject higher-upside talent into the
system.

23. Milwaukee Brewers

A strong 2011 draft class with a few breakout performers from within the
system gets them out of the bottom spot. The Brewers are in better position
to reload the parent club after their 2012 free agents leave next winter.

24. Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have less depth than the Phillies (ranked below here) but have two
potential stars (Nick Castellanos and Jacob Turner) with pretty good
probability up top.

25. Philadelphia Phillies

Philly has a ton of athleticism at the lower levels, but the upper levels
were wiped out by trades the past few years. New farm director Joe Jordan,
the Orioles' former scouting director, has a ton of raw material to work with
but no finished or even nearly finished products.

26. San Francisco Giants

The Giants don't go much over MLB's recommended draft bonuses, never seem to
acquire any prospects in trades and haven't had success on the international
front yet. Their amateur staff has done a great job finding value in later
rounds without going over budget, including Brandon Belt and Heath Hembree.

27. Houston Astros

The Astros might have been last if they hadn't traded Hunter Pence or Michael
Bourn in July. Even though neither haul was that great, the prospects
represented a major infusion into a barren system.

28. Miami Marlins

They have one top-100 guy and only two others who would merit consideration
in the next 50 or so. The system has produced a lot of big league talent in
the past few years, including one star in Mike Stanton and another future
star in Logan Morrison, that doesn't count here.

29. Cleveland Indians

Trades and promotions have gutted this system, which now has very little
above low Class A. One of the Indians' better drafts in years last June
should help.

30. Chicago White Sox

And they're not particularly close to No. 29, either. When you don't spend
money in the draft, you're not going to fare well in anyone's organizational
rankings. The new collective bargaining agreement, which clamps down on
teams' ability to acquire premium talent in the draft through higher bonuses,
was the result of a long-standing effort by White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf,
who wanted to force other teams to play by his rules.

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