Re: Why I Wouldn’t Have Signed Matt Cain

[hunterqiji (hunter)]

翻譯一下關鍵部分
※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
: http://tinyurl.com/7wykqlv
: A couple of hours ago, the Giants announced that they reached an agreement
: with Matt Cain on a five year deal worth just over $110 million. Wendy Thurm
: has already recapped the contract and why this is probably fair market value
: for a quality pitcher with no health problems headed into his age 27 season.
: And, she’s probably right – if the Giants wanted to keep Cain, they weren’
: t going to be able to do it for less than this. This isn’t a situation where
: they just overpaid irrationally. Their options were either to sign him for
: this price or watch him get more money from another team next winter. They
: chose the former.
老人和Cain達成超過$110M的新合約。事實上﹐巨人基本不可能以更低的約綁住Cain.
其實這不是非理性的overpay, 他們要麼現在簽﹐要不下個冬天看他以更高的價格簽約
其他球隊。老人選擇了前者﹐但我(作者)寧願選擇後者。
: I would have chosen the latter.
: Matt Cain is a good pitcher. How good he’d perform in another set of
: circumstances – different ballpark, different division, different pitching
: coach, etc… – isn’t quite as well determined, but we’ve got a pretty good
: idea that Cain is good at preventing runs in the context he’s currently in.
: Over the last six years, he’s thrown 1,300 innings and posted an ERA- of 80,
: meaning that he prevented runs at a rate of 20 percent above average.
: Quantity and quality is a good package. It just doesn’t predict future
: success as well as you might think.
: Starting in 2002, here are some rolling six year windows where pitchers threw
: at least 1,000 innings, the examples of pitchers around Cain’s age that
: performed in a similar manner, and how they did going forward.
: 2002-2007
: Carlos Zambrano, ages 21-26: 1,186 IP, 75 ERA-, 87 FIP-, 92 xFIP-
: While Cain has better command than Zambrano, both got significantly better
: results than their BB/K/GB rates would have suggested for a long period of
: time. Like Cain, Zambrano was extremely durable, and had shouldered heavy
: workloads while still taking the mound every five days. However, 2007 was the
: last year that Zambrano managed 200 innings in a season, and he’s been a
: significant disappointment ever since.
: Jake Peavy, ages 21-26: 1,087 IP, 83 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 82 xFIP-
: Peavy and Cain have a lot in common. Lots of success in pitchers parks in the
: NL West, got better as they aged, and showed a strong track record heading
: into their age 27 seasons. 2007 was Peavy’s best year, and marked the third
: consecutive year he’d topped the 200 inning level. He hasn’t gotten over
: 174 since, struggling with both health issues and diminished performance.
: Mark Buehrle, ages 23-28: 1,357 IP, 83 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 95 xFIP-
: Finally, some good news. Buehrle’s another guy who has consistently beat his
: peripherals and showed extreme durability early in his career. That hasn’t
: changed at all in the last four years, as he’s still the exact same 200
: inning workhorse he’s always been.
: 2003-2008
: CC Sabathia, ages 22-27: 1,269 IP, 78 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 84 xFIP-
: Sabathia was another young workhorse who has managed to both stay healthy and
: stay excellent, but it’s worth noting that he succeeded with a more
: traditional skillset of limiting walks and getting a ton of strikeouts. He’s
: always been excellent at the three things a pitcher has the most control
: over, so for him, it was more of a question of staying healthy rather than
: sustaining abnormal run prevention skills. He stayed healthy and has been
: fantastic since.
: Josh Beckett, ages 23-28: 1,057 IP, 86 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 82 xFIP-
: Beckett couldn’t match Cain’s track record for health and durability, but
: he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in his mid-20s, and strung
: together four consecutive seasons with at least 175 innings pitched. Yet, his
: three years since have brought declined in performance and durability, and he
: ’s regressed somewhat from his prior form.
: John Lackey, ages 24-29: 1,216 IP, 86 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 90 xFIP-
: Like Cain, Lackey’s value was built through quantity rather than just sheer
: dominance, and he provided the Angels with a long run of solid but
: unspectacular performances. His last three years have been a weird mix of
: good, bad, and ugly, and now he’s going to spend the 2012 season rehabbing
: from Tommy John surgery.
: Brandon Webb, ages 24-29: 1,315 IP, 71 ERA-, 75 FIP-, 75 xFIP-
: Webb was the total package, combining elite performance with the ability to
: throw 200 innings year in and year out. He was in the running for the title
: of the best pitcher in baseball. Then, he blew out his arm, and he’s thrown
: just four innings in the Major Leagues over the last three years. His career,
: at this point, appears to be over.
: 2004-2009
: Dan Haren, ages 23-28: 1,154 IP, 80 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 81 xFIP-
: Another success story, and another guy with a lot of similarities to Cain –
:  extreme durability, began as more of a good innings eater, and then steadily
: improved into a legitimate frontline guy. He’s sustained his excellence even
: after moving back to the American League, but like Sabathia, it’s been built
: on a foundation of low walks and high strikeouts.
: These eight guys represent a pretty mixed bag of future performance after
: being identified as durable, quality starters early in their careers. Haren,
: Sabathia, and Buehrle all show that Cain isn’t destined to turn into a
: pumpkin, but Zambrano, Peavy, Webb, Lackey, and Beckett suggest that past
: success doesn’t guarantee future success either.
以上列舉了8投手的很多方面﹐耐久力﹐優質先發等等。Haren,CC,Buehrle, 表明Cain不是
注定成為南瓜(應該是假貨的寓意)﹐但大Z,Peavy, Webb, 發球機﹐北極則暗示過去的好
成績並不能保証未來的成功。
: In reality, Cain’s future is something of a coin flip. He may or may not
: stay healthy. He may or may not continue to prevent hits on balls in play.
: History is littered with similar pitchers who have gone either way, and when
: you’re betting $100+ million on a guy, you should get better than 50-50 odds
: that he’ll continue to perform reasonably well going forward.
事實上﹐Cain的未來成功的概率就像扔硬幣一樣﹐50-50. 但球隊在你身上投資$100+m,你
應該比50%成功可能更好才對。
: At $22 million per year over the next five years, Matt Cain essentially needs
: to avoid all problems and continue to pitch as well as he has previously. He
: might do just that, but there’s a real risk that his arm is going to fall or
: that his performance will head the wrong way sooner than later. There’s just
: too much risk here for a team like the Giants to take on this kind of
: contract, especially with so many other pressing needs in the organization.
每年$22m﹐Cain需要表現的和過去一樣好﹐但卻是有一定的風險他的手臂不行了。
: The Giants have a built-in pitching factory with AT&T Park and Dave Righetti
: in place, and given that they’ve had a lot of success maximizing the returns
: they get on importing pitchers from other organizations, they’re in a unique
: position to avoid paying market rates for pitching and instead invest that
: capital in getting some quality position players instead. It might not have
: been the popular thing to do, but letting Cain walk at the end of the year
: and throwing $22 million at a guy who swings the bat for a living may have
: been a better use of fund.
老人處在一個獨特的位置, 可以避免用市場價簽下一個投手而簽一些其他位置的優秀球
員。也許讓Cain在賽季末離開﹐而用$22m去簽下其他打者才是更好的利用球隊的資金。

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 128.252.20.193
※ 編輯: hunterqiji      來自: 128.252.20.193       (04/03 09:39)
※ 編輯: hunterqiji      來自: 128.252.20.193       (04/03 09:40)
※ 編輯: hunterqiji      來自: 128.252.20.193       (04/03 09:41)
推 nolander:哪裡有說他手臂不行了?
→ hunterqiji:there’s a real risk that his arm is going to fall
推 OoyaoO:要簽長約每條手臂都嘛有壞掉的風險 但是以他連續5年200IP
→ OoyaoO:的成績 講價錢的時候談這個只會被打槍吧
推 didilala:我還是覺得這各約值得.CAIN真的很穩定.在各隊也都是前2號
推 noahlin:真的進FA也很難簽到比22M更高的價碼了吧...
推 notmuchmoney:前2號要花到22M來綁 不一定值得...
推 Alexander13:可惜歷年勝場數比較悲情 不然會更搶手
推 vg175:更新消息,最後一年選擇權如果Cain因手肘或肩膀傷勢進入DL並
→ vg175:結束球季,選擇權將不被執行
推 JakeMcGee:there's a real risk那句話不是說Cain的手臂不行
→ JakeMcGee:只是說投下每年22M 是很有風險的 這是綁長約必然要承擔
→ JakeMcGee:因為作者是以"你現在沒傷 不代表以後都沒傷"的角度來看
推 armyguy:你現在沒傷 不代表以後都沒傷這個論點真是毫無意義,對每個
→ armyguy:人都嘛一樣,誰知道將來的事,投資一定有風險,但以cain連5年
→ armyguy:200IP,平均ERA+125以上等級,5年後也只是31歲來說我覺得很
→ armyguy:合理,至於每年平均22M就見人見智,其實他的成績絕對可當1號
→ chiz2:老人要擔心的是怎麼讓打線多打幾分出來,你看那精美的林盲腸
→ chiz2:去年莫名其妙吞了多少敗
推 taiwanrules:Cain 應該是整聯盟前15的投手 放到很多隊都可以當ACE
→ taiwanrules:如果要像作者這樣評論 那只能一年一簽 問題是簽的下嗎
推 danny789:"你現在沒傷 不代表以後都沒傷"=沒說
→ PlayStation3:其實每個人並不一樣。
推 maikxz:簽約然後說以後會傷 是件很奇怪的事 那大家都一年一簽就好
→ maikxz:可以照過往評估他是不是風險高的人來決定要給多大的約
→ PlayStation3:有些人你就是知道他簽長的風險會更大，譬如發球機。
→ PlayStation3:但是Cain簽常約反而會覺得還好。
→ PlayStation3:             *長
→ maikxz:對 能夠批評的就是這種約 是一個能拿出 ACE 身手 過往又沒
→ maikxz:有傷痛 又怎能預測他會受傷
→ PlayStation3:而且這種例子其實很多阿，看看光芒抓誰放誰都可尋。
→ ckevint:又來了 講到投手必提的隊伍是吧 呵呵
→ PlayStation3:其實就算是發球姬也有預料他會傷肘才有附帶條件。
→ PlayStation3:而且簽約前的傷病史跟年紀也會是評估條件。
→ PlayStation3:並不是說他一定機率這就是廢話，這有高有低不是嘛?
推 maikxz:發球姬我個人是覺得是長度問題 17M 倒還好
→ maxspeed150:所以發球機的約才有個很特殊的條款啊
推 eon4:要用長約綁球員一定要冒點風險啊 況且Matt這幾年貢獻約25 WAR
→ eon4:也不過拿16M而已 (by B-R)
推 abc12812:發球基離隊前兩年都有肘傷困擾，和Cain不能比吧
推 jimmihg:Cain近年無傷病疑慮,又有近ACE的成績,拿這約不過份吧?
推 ajdjg:推發球機…哈哈
推 yeng1217:這成績在NYY每年至少20w = =
→ PlayStation3:所以簽約本來就是不一樣狀況阿？有問題嘛..
推 jardon:我沒記錯1WAR=4M吧 只有去年的5.2WAR(FG)達成 無論如何
→ jardon:他都夠穩定 至於是不是overpay 恩... 反正付錢的是老人
推 ultratimes:去費城人，可能連3號都未必有XD
推 jimmihg:沒有多少投手去費城人進的了前三號的XD
推 KevinLiou:Hamles的確比Cain還值錢一點點 .....
推 azlbf:反正不會比Zito更糟了
→ rayven:費城人前三號先發需滿足以下任一條件：1、賽揚 2、長得夠帥