[情報] Playoff Odds

[Homura (虎斑街貓˙悼月)]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/


雙外卡新制實行的第一年，到目前為止的playoff odds~


     Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct

NYY       .581         96.0     66.0    97.1%   2.5%     99.6%
TBR       .529         86.6     75.4     2.5%  53.1%     55.6%
BAL       .427         82.3     79.7     0.2%  11.1%     11.3%
BOS       .536         80.6     81.4     0.2%   5.7%      5.9%
TOR       .453         75.6     86.4     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%


     Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct

CHW       .548         88.9     73.1    61.2%  22.3%     83.5%
DET       .546         87.8     74.2    38.7%  32.7%     71.4%
CLE       .469         74.9     87.1     0.1%   0.1%      0.2%
MIN       .436         69.9     92.1     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
KCR       .424         69.4     92.6     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%


     Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct

TEX       .586         94.9     67.1    94.0%   5.2%     99.2%
LAA       .566         86.3     75.7     5.0%  49.8%     54.8%
OAK       .474         82.9     79.1     1.0%  17.4%     18.4%
SEA       .446         74.0     88.0     0.0%   0.1%      0.1%


     Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct

WAS       .571         97.6     64.4    80.8%  18.6%     99.4%
ATL       .560         92.7     69.3    19.2%  69.8%     89.0%
NYM       .506         78.9     83.1     0.0%   0.1%      0.1%
PHI       .503         76.8     85.2     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
MIA       .412         70.3     91.7     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%


     Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct

CIN       .553         95.9     66.1    89.8%   7.9%     97.7%
STL       .584         89.6     72.4     8.0%  54.0%     62.0%
PIT       .507         87.5     74.5     2.2%  33.3%     35.5%
CHC       .399         64.4     97.6     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
MIL       .513         76.0     86.0     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
HOU       .372         55.4    106.6     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%


     Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct

SFG       .545         88.6     73.4    53.2%   7.3%     60.5%
LAD       .525         87.1     74.9    36.4%   6.6%     43.0%
ARI       .539         83.6     78.4    10.4%   2.4%     12.8%
COL       .425         63.8     98.2     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
SDP       .466         71.9     90.1     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%

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◆ From: 114.36.140.141
推 force5566:這讓我想到去年紅襪XD
推 glthe1:CUB 0.0%
→ glthe1:記得開季的時候PHI不是這樣的
推 farst:wc pct是?
※ 編輯: Homura          來自: 114.36.140.141       (08/16 01:03)
推 yamatai:WILD CARD
推 jacky1990b:99.9
推 JACKIAM:勝率 和勝負場數對不太起來= =
推 Danielly:金鶯被預測勝率比較低，可是為什麼季後賽機率較紅襪高@@?
→ Herlin:我猜他的expected winning pct 是預測餘下比賽的勝率
→ Herlin:大概類似Pythagorean 由得失分推測之類
推 skittles:我覺得expected winning%是球季開打前估算的
→ Sechslee:不可能 誰球季開打前會給PHI估.503
→ Herlin:BAL 會.427 是因為現在它得分還比失分少..
推 mrkey:有誰有去年9/1的 playoff odds?
推 lookers:有去年紅襪的前車之鑑之後...
推 bluewind18:給樓樓上 #1EW_eYTo這篇下方有部分的
推 kee32:可以直接教我們怎麼押保證賺嗎?(<--求明牌推文)
→ KusoPvt:天使補成這樣要是沒進真的很悶XD
推 nolander:真要說的話 條子沒進才是真的會幹到死...
推 chiky:去年這時候光芒根本還看不到紅襪的車尾燈~ 差了快十場勝差吧