美聯MVP競賽已經結束了

[abc12812 ()]

http://tinyurl.com/8nuwomq

Hey guys (gender inclusive)? Guys. I hate to interrupt. But listen for a
second.

Look, I know that Miguel Cabrera is an awesome baseball player, and I know he
had a huge game last night, and that he's currently two homers back of Josh
Hamilton from being in a position to win the first Triple Crown since 1967
(as I write this, he appears to be about five points up over Trout in the
batting race, and six RsBI over Hamilton). That'd be a pretty amazing
accomplishment, and I know that it's gotta be tempting to go around touting
his MVP credentials.

我知道肥卡布是很了不起的球員 即將挑戰1967年後首次三冠王 (注: 已經達成了)
這是了不起的成就

Here's the thing, though, guys: there's no AL MVP discussion this year. That
was canceled. I'm sorry, I thought you'd heard. It's Mike Trout. They made
the announcement, like, two months ago. I don't know what rumors you've heard
or whatever, but nope, that hasn't changed. It's still off.

但美聯MVP非Mike Trout莫屬

The various Wins Above Replacement measures break it down like this (through
Tuesday; they'll tick a bit in Miggy's favor when the numbers are updated
tomorrow):

                WARP    fWAR    rWAR
Miguel Cabrera  5.2     6.3     6.1
Mike Trout      8.0     9.3     10.2

WAR(P) shouldn't be taken as gospel -- any one of them, or even, I guess, in
cases like this in which they all strongly point in one direction -- but
that's a pretty huge difference. When three very different groups of smart
people take smart approaches to trying to assign value to ballplayers and
they all come out the same way by a huge margin, if you want to argue that
the one they all agree is less valuable is actually more valuable, I think
you've got a pretty steep hill to climb.

從WAR可看的出來 Tourt壓倒性的勝利
如果你想辯解說價值低的那位其實更有價值 那恐怕很費功夫

And (as usual), if you take the numbers apart into their components, I think
they make a ton of sense. You've got hitting, which is obviously Cabrera's
strongest (some might say only) quality. After the huge night last night,
Cabrera's hitting .333/.396/.612; Trout is hitting .328/.395/.559. Slight
edge to Cabrera based on raw numbers (almost all on slugging percentage), but
it turns out that the Big A has been playing as a pitcher's park over the
past several years, Comerica as a slight hitter's park, while Trout has also
had the cavernous Safeco and
whatever-the-hell-they-call-the-Athletics-park-now to contend with.
Accordingly, Trout came into Tuesday with the lead in OPS+, 169 to 165; I
imagine they're roughly tied today, or that Cabrera moved slightly ahead.
(wRC+ probably tells this story better, but that includes other things I want
to break out separately.)

打擊上 修正球場效應後 兩人差距不多

OPS+ doesn't capture all of offense, though. It doesn't tell you, for
instance, that Cabrera has grounded into 28 double plays, leading the Majors
by five, while Trout's had just seven of those. Part of that is opportunity,
of course, Trout being a leadoff hitter and all, but it has certainly
impacted their values, and a lot of it is the vast difference in speed. That
speed has value in other ways, of course. FanGraphs calculates that Trout's
baserunning in ways independent of all the stolen bases -- advancing from
first to third, avoiding running into outs, etc. -- has been worth 6.1 runs
to his team to date, while Cabrera's has cost his team 2.9. Knowing what you
know about their abilities -- just about what they look like running the
bases -- doesn't that sound right to you, or maybe even a little
Miggy-friendly? It sure does to me.

Trout的搶壘能力幫天使多拿下6.1分 而Cabrera則倒扣2.9分

Then there are the steals. SB value is bound up in FanGraphs' wOBA
calculation, but extrapolating from the wOBA formula, it looks like Trout's
incredible 46steals at a 92% success rate has added about 9.5 runs, while
Cabrera's 4-for-5 has added a half run. Doesn't that seem about right, too,
intuitively? SBs get derided a lot (and rightly so, I think), but if you do
it a lot and are almost never caught, you're certainly creating more runs.
This suggests that for about every five steals, factoring in those four CSes,
Trout's gotten the Angels an extra run they wouldn't have had if he stayed
put. I'd buy that.

Trout的盜壘多拿下9.5分 Cabrera 0.5分

Then of course there's defense. Cabrera has been less of a disaster than I
thought he'd be at third base, but he's been bad. The metrics disagree on how
bad -- BP says -3.4 runs, Baseball Reference -4, FanGraphs -9.4. They
similarly agree that Trout has been phenomenal in the outfield, and disagree
wildly on how much: BP +4.6, B-Ref +25(!), FG +13. Cabrera then gets a run
and a half back, somewhat surprisingly, because CF and 3B are viewed as of
equal importance, and Trout has spent more time at the less important LF than
Cabrera has at the much less important DH and 1B. Taking the averages of the
fielding metrics, because why not, Cabrera has cost his team 5.6 runs, Trout
has given his 14.2. Even with the positional adjustment, that's an 18.3-run
advantage for Trout.

Trout防守完爆Cabrera 修正守位後兩人的手套差距有18.3分

If you think Cabrera deserves the MVP, and think you can argue that the
systems and I are way off on any one of those factors (not just that we can't
be 100% certain about the exact numbers, but that it's seriously off for some
reason), please do. Otherwise, that's what we've got: they've been
essentially equal with bats in their hands, and Trout has been much, much
better in every other aspect. The baserunning, basestealing and defense alone
adds up to about a 36-run advantage for Trout; I think the GIDPs could add
another ten or more, but I'm frankly undecided about how to handle that, so I
won't (I don't think it's necessary). 36 runs is a huge number; WAR says, for
example, that Prince Fielder, who has been really, really good, has been
worth about that much over the course of the entire season vis-a-vis a random
replacement-level player. So, basically: Mike Trout has been one whole Prince
Fielder better than Miguel Cabrera.

Trout比Cabrera好上36分 (還沒加上雙殺打的差距)
36分有多少? 大概就是一個Prince Fielder那麼大
簡單來說 Trout = Cabrera+Fielder

Well, almost. Of course, Cabrera has played all but one of his team's games,
while Trout (thanks mostly to his late call-up) has missed 22 of the Angels'.
That certainly has value...but not even close to 36 runs of value, which
would be 1.7 runs for each extra game played. Nobody's ever done that, ever
(the all-time single season runs created leader is Barry Bonds, whose 230 in
2001 came out to 1.5 per game played). Cabrera clearly gets a slight
advantage with the bat, based almost entirely on playing time (as evidenced
by the fact that B-Ref's and FanGraphs' batting runs for the two players are
roughly even, despite including stolen bases). But they certainly don't think
Cabrera's playing time has pushed him that far ahead. You can disagree, but
you've got a lot of arguing and proving stuff to do. It's very hard for me to
see an argument that puts Cabrera ahead of Trout, or even particularly close.

怎麼看Trout都完勝Cabrera 連接近都說不上

So then what else is there? Winning the Triple Crown would be awesome, but it
can't be used to somehow increase Cabrera's value. I assume for these
purposes that most people reading this understand why the batting average and
RBI themselves don't actually add value, but worth noting: (a) per Baseball
Reference (see here and here) the park-adjusted league batting average is
.247 for Trout and .259 for Cabrera; and (b) the RBI, as usual, are mostly a
function of opportunity -- per this, while Cabrera's having driven in 20.3%
of the runners on base for him is good for 3rd in the AL, Trout's 18.3% is
14th (and very close to 10th). Most of the difference is that Cabrera has
batted with 136 more runners on base than Trout has, including 71 more in
scoring position. Also worth noting, if you're caring about those stats, is
that Trout has scored 18 more runs in those 21 fewer games.

三冠王是很了不起的成就 但這頭銜並不能增加Cabrera的價值

And that's about it. If you care about whether or not the MVP comes from a
contending team (which you shouldn't at all, but now is really not the time),
that's a push (Coolstandings gives both teams between a 21% and 23% chance of
making the postseason; BPro gives the Tigers 21% and the Angels 29%). I can't
think of anything else (if you want to argue leadership or something like
that, knock yourself out, you're on your own). It all comes down to Cabrera
having really pretty, and potentially historically interesting, raw batting
numbers, and Tigers fans being very vocal and protective of their guys.
That's all there is. Trout's still running away with this thing.

兩隊季後賽機會也差不多

So, again, sorry guys. I know we're used to having these discussions at this
time of year. And we've still got a lot of great talk out there for you to
enjoy -- the NL MVP is pretty wide open, for instance, and both Cy Youngs,
and we're still technically open for the NL ROY (it's totally Harper's, but
we'll hear you out). The AL MVP and ROY are closed up for the season, though.
Nothing to see here. Hey, try again next year!

國聯MVP還有的戰 兩個賽揚獎也是 國聯ROY也可以討論
但美聯MVP和ROY競爭已經結束了 大家明年見

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 140.112.25.133
推 IE9434xx:Trout 新人王  胖卡 MVP   Price 賽揚獎
→ killer0204:整天找捧Trout的聞不累嗎0.0
→ o0991758566:上面有一篇差不多的...米糕 MVP啦!
→ IE9434xx:Harper 新人王  Ryan  MVP   GIO  賽揚獎
推 tckenny1:Trout等於米糕+肥王子會不會太誇張
→ abc12812:捧卡布的新聞不太好找 幾乎都底特律媒體
推 jshuang:怎麼感覺一堆宣傳戰.... XDDDD
推 msn12345679:Trout形象好 而且攻守俱佳 又是紐澤西人 很正常
噓 bluetory99:找一堆貶Cabrera捧Trout的文章是想引戰嗎?
→ msn12345679:米糕去年還因為酒駕失言...
→ msn12345679:不過以過去的經驗看來MVP還是米糕勝算比較大
→ Sparksfly:你在大聲什麼啦！
推 andy880036s:米糕!!!!!!!!!!
→ Sparksfly:上面那個笑笑就好 別當真 不過我覺得這些人講太早了
推 mepass:戰超大
→ Sparksfly:很期待米糕到時候打一輪這些人的巴掌
→ porten812:Trout = Cabrera+Fielder 呵呵
→ haloducks:剛看去年mvp討論，也沒多少人拿war來說，
推 maxspeed150:因為去年Verlander在WAR上根本是名列前茅
→ maxspeed150:唯一贏他的叫做Zobrist (BR版)
→ maxspeed150:而且兩人差距很有限
推 ddtcd:拿個三冠王 錯了嗎?
推 dudu5566:看war比的那麼爽 你也要看看人家投票的看不看這數據
噓 DAY1986:這些人選有人球隊進季後賽的嗎??
→ zerg1228:怎一直出現捧Trout文啊= =
推 mess0706:去年Zoby WAR竟然有這麼高啊，那他怎麼連前十名都沒份XDD
→ haloducks:那去年Braun vs Kemp vs Upton 有人比過war?
推 kikielle:投票的人會仔細去計算這個嗎?
推 goopa:今年Zobrist也貢獻滿大的
→ Sparksfly:因為同個人貼的 習慣就好
噓 rex9999:搞得好像WAR異常重要　事實上是傳統AVG RBI　老美更喜歡HR
噓 eon4:各位想入鱒魚教的信徒 入會請早! 謝謝!
→ Sparksfly:我還以為abc大聽過什麼叫作物即必反 你一天貼兩篇這種文
噓 oiyuz:下個月就被打臉了拉 米糕穩拿
噓 zyx12320:結果都沒進季後賽 基特拿MVP
推 scjh123:Zobrist的WAR也很威...不過這幾年MVP討論跟本沒人鳥他..XD
→ Sparksfly:極* 什麼意思呢？是要說你本身的立場 還是想讓我們對鳟
→ Sparksfly:魚徹底反感呢？還是說米糕哪裡惹到您？
→ haloducks:#1EWn0mBg 去年NL WAR 比較 Kemp 9.8 Braun 7.7
噓 tckenny1:來補噓一下Trout=米糕+肥王子
推 kikielle:引戰王不意外啦~Harper說Kemp是MVP的那篇也被他故意翻成
→ kikielle:Harper說Kemp贏得MVP
噓 zyx12320:看到Trout=米糕+肥王子 再噓一次
推 msn12345679:去年NL MVP怎麼看都該給Kemp啊 結果居然是Braun**
→ msn12345679:理由是因為道奇沒有進季後賽 你就知道傳統派在票選分
→ msn12345679:量有多大
噓 b85181:你說的算?
推 RBC54321:Harper那篇也沒故意翻吧  原文就那樣說的阿
噓 haloducks:看他文章都是射後不理。結果大家都被釣到，他就繼續玩
→ haloducks:他的翻譯
推 kikielle:原文看不出來有說"贏得"吧 他一開始翻成贏得 後來才改
噓 wildhog:釣魚文
推 immortalqq:Zobrist這幾年WAR穩定貢獻 非常好的打者
噓 pipi0627:看到Trout=米糕+肥王子 穩噓
→ Herlin:這問題大概可以分兩個層面看吧
→ immortalqq:外加多重守位 不過MVP的確Trout贏面滿大的
→ immortalqq:但胖卡布最近真的太兇了XD
→ Herlin:一是你覺得MVP 要多看重WAR 二是你覺得選MVP 的人會多看重
→ Herlin:WAR 基本上這兩者不太一樣
→ abc12812:覺得文章論述有問題的可發一篇出來討論討論
→ Herlin:其實各項票選裏看什麼數據的傾向一直在改變
→ Herlin:比如說十年前的CY voting 和現在比 現在很明顯不那麼重視
→ Herlin:W-L record..那以後會不會越來越重視WAR 也很難說
推 Connec:結果最後MVP是Zoby (大誤
噓 allextai1992:囂張什麼啦!這麼想被打臉喔!
推 lolity:這個話題已經討論到爛掉了，反正鄉民沒有投票權，乖乖等結
推 a7v333:推
→ lolity:果出來就是了，有什麼好吵的。
噓 brock0118:引戰引的不累喔?
噓 Asia5566:
噓 JerMi:噓
→ Sparksfly:不認為一定要丟東西才能發表意見喔
噓 Asucks:這篇有夠偏頗，，作者就不要到時被打臉，就算鱒魚最後贏了
噓 JerMi:說Trout=卡布+王子 根本笑話
→ Asucks:如果票數接近，作者照樣被打臉，打擊三冠王拿不到MVP我也
噓 lucky70121:原文作者家裡辦喪事喔?  Miguel Cabrera才是MVP
→ Asucks:覺得很匪夷所思
→ LIYENNEKO:為什麼捧一個人要把另一個得成就講得跟屁一樣?
→ lucky70121:THE AUTHOR "BILL" IS  HOLY BULLSHIT
→ lucky70121:Bill  you will go to hell     Bill sucks fuck u
→ lucky70121:被水桶我他媽也要罵這個垃圾人渣原作者  幹
推 Pujols5:三冠王拿不到MVP有前例阿 其中兩個還是神獸
→ goopa:馬上水桶，等會公告。
推 Atropos0723:會這樣支持米糕 那不是因為成績 而是因為愛
→ Atropos0723:因為對米糕的偏愛所以才會如此偏執
→ Atropos0723:對兩人都沒啥愛的人來說，其實就是伯仲之間，鱒魚還
→ Atropos0723:比較有優勢呢！ 會狂支持米糕，是因為他算過去遺珠吧
推 KI780804:Tourt?
→ Sparksfly:Ted沒拿到跟成績可說幾乎無關好麼= =
→ eon4:WAR>10沒拿到MVP亦有前例 而且還不少
→ abc12812:20世紀後打出三冠王的全都進名人堂了
推 meteorhades:結果這篇最後還是釣到一堆人 哈哈哈
推 Pujols5:所以說BBWAA這組織我搞出啥結果我實在都不意外阿XD
→ K77251:越捧只會越反感= =
推 Re12345:進名人堂跟單一年度MVP意義差很多吧=.=
噓 RDclausius:如果Trout第一年的HR=米糕+王子的生涯HR數我就認同
→ RDclausius:Trout = Miguel + Prince 這句話
推 cyhung1025:我覺得MVP應該給TROUT  考慮到守位這種成績
→ oralboralb:現在不流行看守位吧  一堆人看到三冠王就嗨了 守位算啥
噓 szza2000:引戰不膩喔
推 o0991758566:推lucky70121 太勇敢了XDDD
噓 miabcd199:( ￣□￣)/喔~~喔喔~~喔喔~~喔喔~爪爪
推 flycat638:我還是挺米糕!!
推 ss184:三冠王很難拿 給三冠王吧:)個人覺得
推 kiddno56979:MVP是投票 這篇完全就用數據分勝負 想必是沒投票資格
推 Killebrew:abc一直貼搞得我以為是反串 存心要搞臭Trout喔 XDDDDDD
噓 ddt73930:喔
推 kauw:樽來瘋?
→ kauw:美國人也是有一堆瘋狂愛造神的 原來不止台灣
噓 maxtakesfive:看到Trout=米糕+肥王子 都笑了
噓 Andrew407:真的 Trout=Miguel + Prince 這主話也講得出來 哈
→ Andrew407:種
→ PTTerme:蠻有理的除了那句Trout=Miguel + Prince，老虎沒這兩隻根
→ PTTerme:本難以得分，哪是一個Trout能抵得過的，至少要連兩隻Trout
→ PTTerme:兩隻鱒魚要在壘上威脅較大，胖虎連線光在打擊區就很有威脅
推 sexyfunny:@oiyuz 就算要打臉也不是下個月  應該是11月
→ sexyfunny:但這篇作者真的太引戰了  XDDDD
噓 ForgerEames:這篇真的捧得太誇張了= =