別用WAR看MVP票選吧

[abc12812 ()]

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120921/OPINION03/209210445

Detroit — You wanna talk about WAR, fine. Let's chat.

Personally, Wins Above Replacement, an advanced stat that attempts to measure
how many more victories a player is worth than if he were replaced on the
team by a minor league or bench-level player, is far from perfect. It's
simply not the end-all.

If it was, Alan Trammell, not Ozzie Smith, would've been the first-ballot
Hall of Famer.

如果WAR有用的話 那第一次就入選名人堂的就會是Alan Trammell而非Ozzie Smith了

Now tell me, is Miguel Cabrera seriously worth fewer than seven victories
compared to if a Mud Hens-caliber player had been playing instead of him for
the Tigers this season?

Cabrera對老虎的貢獻不到七勝???

Because, folks, that's what WAR suggests.

這就是WAR告訴我們的

And to me, that's ludicrous, regardless of how limited Cabrera's range is at
third base.

WAR also tells us Angels center fielder Mike Trout, 21, the sexy pick for AL
Most Valuable Player by most in the national media, is worth at least two
more wins to his team than Cabrera is worth to his Tigers. Never mind that
Trout didn't even join the Angels until an April 28 promotion from the minor
leagues.

Trout場次少不少 WAR卻高了超過兩勝

WAR gives the edge to Trout, of course, because of his league-leading 46
stolen bases and 118 runs, and his Gold Glove-caliber defense. In turn, WAR
doesn't seem to care much that Cabrera is making a historic pursuit for a
Triple Crown, leading the league with a .333 batting average and 130 RBIs,
while running second, by one, with 41 home runs.

因為46次盜壘 118得分和金手套 WAR給了Trout優勢
但WAR卻不在乎史詩般的三冠王

I've had folks tell me lately that even if Cabrera wins baseball's first
Triple Crown since 1967, Trout remains the MVP pick. My apologies. I simply
cannot comprehend that.

1967後首次三冠王還拿不到MVP? 我無法理解

But fans of Sabermetrics, these new-age stats that attempt to give you an
all-around worth of a player, actually will tell you — and with a straight
face! — that batting average and RBIs are irrelevant today.

但賽八的粉絲總是告訴你 打擊率和打點沒用

There might — might — be the case with batting average, because that
doesn't necessarily tell you how clutch or how much of a run producer a
player is. There were some in Seattle who thought Ichiro Suzuki could have
hit many more home runs, but didn't because he wanted his batting average to
stay sky high.

打擊率 或許是吧

But RBIs? Really? Irrelevant? The critics like to say that's only a
measurement of how often guys get on ahead of you. Well, to that I have a
two-word response: Delmon Young.

但打點是靠隊友??? 我只能給你兩個字: Delmon Young

Trout, to be fair, is a leadoff hitter. He's guaranteed to come up at least
once a game with nobody on in front of him. Cabrera bats third — and with
the year Austin Jackson has had — and gets plenty of shots with runners on,
regardless of the black hole that has been the Tigers' No. 2 slot.

So to compare Trout and Cabrera, you must be a little more creative.

Here's what I came up with. Cabrera drives in a run 37.8 percent of the time
with runners on, and 50.6 percent with runners in scoring position. Trout, by
comparison, is at 35.5 percent and 48.1 percent.

壘上有人時 Cabrera有37.8%的機率打回分數 RISP時是50.6%
Trout則分別是35.5%和48.1%

And let's talk about what the player means to his team. For starters, the
Angels are more likely to miss the playoffs than the Tigers. That matters.
But let's look past that. In terms of runs and RBIs, Cabrera has accounted
for 28.2 percent of all Detroit's runs; Trout, meanwhile, is at 23.5 percent.
And even had Trout been up on Opening Day, it would've taken an historic
April to be beating Cabrera there.

Cabrera貢獻了老虎28.2%的分數 而Trout只有23.5%

There are other advanced metrics that Saber fans cite, including wRC+, or
runs created. There, per FanGraphs, Trout actually edges Cabrera by two runs,
171-169. They are baseball's leaders. Of course, Cabrera wins in other areas
Tigers manager Jim Leyland might call "geek" stats, including on-base
percentage (.398-.392) and slugging percentage (.613-.551), and thus OPS
(1.011-.943).

Cabrera在宅宅數據-上壘率/長打率/OPS 也都領先

Then there's what a player's meant to his team when it matters — in crunch
time.

關鍵時刻更是如此

In August and September, with the Tigers clawing to stay in the American
League Central race, Cabrera is batting .360 with 16 homers and 45 RBIs in 44
games. Trout had an OK August (.284, seven homers and 19 RBIs), but he's darn
near disappeared in September (.257, two homers, three RBIs).

Cabrera在八九月大殺四方 反觀Trout
八月還可以 九月就烙賽了

What does that mean? If the Tigers make the playoffs — and it's very
possible, considering the White Sox tough closing schedule — it'll be
because of Cabrera.

如果老虎進季後賽 這都是Cabrera的功勞

And if the Angels miss the playoffs — a very likely scenario — it'll be, in
part, because of Trout.

而如果天使沒進季後賽 - 非常有可能 - 則是因為Trout的過錯

Now, I ask you, is that an MVP? That's for 28 of my peers to decide; I don't
have an MVP vote this year.

這樣算是MVP嗎? 這得交給28位票選者來決定 我今年沒有選票

But if that is an MVP, then let me say this: Voters better be consistent and
make Tigers ace Justin Verlander the Cy Young winner for a second straight
year, because he leads the major leagues in WAR, too, not contenders Felix
Hernandez or David Price.

但如果這也算是MVP 那票選者最好也把賽揚獎選票給Verlander
因為他是WAR領先者

By the way, here's another thing FanGraphs' WAR tells us, folks: Anibal
Sanchez (3.1) and Rick Porcello (2.9) are worth more to their team than
Angels ace Jered Weaver (2.7) is to his. Never mind that Weaver is 18-4 with
a 2.79 ERA. What do those stats matter anymore?

順便一提 FanGraphs上的WAR顯示 Anibal Sanchez (3.1)和Rick Porcello (2.9)
都比Jered Weaver (2.7)更有價值
Weaver可是18-4  2.79 ERA呢

FanGraphs, interestingly, comes up with different WARs than
Baseball-Reference.com. They arrive at the same numbers for home runs, RBIs
and average, however.

Look, I'm not saying WAR and wRC+ and other Saber stats are rubbish. Not at
all, actually. We're in the greatest technology era, with number crunching
made easier. So there absolutely is a place in baseball for evolution of
statistics.

我不是說賽八的數據是給人打臉用的

But at the expense of completely disregarding telling stats that have been
around for 100-plus years?

Let's please not go there.

但為了賽八的數據 就要放棄用了100多年的老朋友嗎?
最好不要

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 140.112.25.133
→ Sparksfly:( ′-`)y-/| <>< <>< <><  ><>
推 andy880036s:平衡報導
→ abc12812:Cabrera的文章真的比較難找
推 fatbird:......
→ haloducks:比說蝦丟臉
推 noahlin:以一個打者來說卡布比較好 不過一個守備爛的3B跟金手套CF
推 whalelover:Weaver才2.7?!
推 darksign:Yeah, the sun also revolved around Earth for over a
→ darksign:hundred years, let's not give that up either Zzz
→ msn12345679:         不用爭 美聯新人王票選早結束了
→ noahlin:考慮這個之後很難說卡布勝出
→ darksign:天使進不了季後賽這種話是Trout的錯都說的出來是哪招
推 dudu5566:mvp通常打擊看的比較重 投票者看守備價值的比重不高
→ msn12345679:天使現在還能競爭外卡幾乎是靠鱒魚哥啊
→ Sparksfly:可見外國寫手也一堆腦殘啊
推 noahlin:重點是守位 守備其次
推 Tmk:笑話，Ozzie Smith生涯WAR比Trammell高這人知不知道？
噓 wangmytsai:天使進不了季後賽是Trout的錯? lol
噓 kurtzz:是Trout的錯是滿扯的...要不是有Trout勝率會有五成以上嗎
推 OoyaoO:其實我覺得把RISP跟RBI當作MVP重要參考數據沒什麼不對的
→ OoyaoO:那是一個結果 就算那是運氣又怎樣 貢獻到就是貢獻到了
推 echomica:because of Trout比較像是說猴子沒進季後賽 是因為Trout
→ echomica:最後大烙賽的關係
→ Herlin:我還沒看到有人拿WPA 出來 也可以拿這個啊 XU
推 Stanly10:沒Trout 現在搞不好已經沒機會季後賽了
→ abc12812:WPA Trout勝過Cabrera
推 abacada:Delmon Young怎麼了@@
→ ted10:專愛挑這種很偏頗的文章是?
推 Sephiroth:那一段連著肥卡布火熱的8.9月寫下來,應該是說在球隊拼
→ Sephiroth:季後賽的關鍵時刻兩人的表現落差導致最後有沒有進季後賽
→ Sephiroth:因為現在看起來老虎機會大 天使則很危險
推 kenny781558:使進不了季後賽這種話是Trout的錯  作者....
→ kenny781558:天使
推 OoyaoO:拿楊大猛出來講是因為他這季大部分時間都打第五棒
→ OoyaoO:前面就是兩隻超會上壘的胖虎  但是他的RBI並沒有很多
推 Sephiroth:可以的話看原文吧～原po翻譯坦白說很不精準
推 dufflin:都嘛si封面作祟啦
推 Pujols5:BBWAA最近幾年也在變了 如果早個十年我覺得Miggy很穩
→ Pujols5:例子就是King拿CYA 13勝在以前根本不會被考慮
推 noahlin:很多人愛用季末表現來當作加扣分的依據 好像七月幫球隊拿
→ noahlin:到一勝只算半場 九月的算一場半似的 到底在想什麼
推 pikachu123:abc太強了 2邊各找一篇文來釣魚
→ GuyPearce:上面那篇會被噓爆 這篇會被推爆 XD
→ yankees21:Delmon Young XDDDDDDDD 這作者好酸
推 carrhung:拿大猛出來鞭真的是太賤了 XD
推 dw1012:沒有Trout天使現在就不用玩了  不過老虎也一樣啦
推 XdynamicX:看到Delmon Young我真的笑慘了XDDD
推 ddt73930:噓的人是沒有看懂嗎 9月是季後賽關鍵月 米糕依舊穩健 tro
推 ddt73930:ut此時勞賽幾乎會直接造成天使卡位關鍵
→ rahim03:WAR這麼重要的話 為什麼2008年WAR最高的Markakis一票都沒
推 Fukudome:推這篇XD
→ PTTerme:Trout的錯？沒有他天使也許連追趕的機會都沒有！
推 alex710707:rahim03請去查查08年兩個WAR差多少與今年差多少
推 rahim03:Markakis是一張MVP選票都沒有 你要我查什麼....
推 rahim03:BR版的WAR 08年MVP第二名的猛牛 差了Markakis 3.2
→ rahim03:Markakis可是連一張都沒有 該年有得到MVP票數的金鶯球員是
→ rahim03:Huff WAR 3.8  所以alex你到底要我查什麼 可以說明一下嗎
推 alex710707:抱歉 沒發現是一張票都沒有
推 white75724:中肯