Re: [情報] WAR is the answer

[tlchen (台灣加油)]

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
: sport, like the world, is messy. But the bottom line is that WAR works. In
: 2012 the correlation between Baseball Prospectus' WAR and team victories was
: 0.86 (where 1.0 would have meant a perfect correlation). The correlation
: between batting average and victories was 0.27. Teams with more WAR win more
: games. Teams with better batting averages don't.

Sure. WAR is a better statistic than the batting average. I do not
think that many people disagree. You can check the correlation between
victories and the differences of the runs forced and the runs allowed.
It would give you a higher correlation. Does that mean R+RBI is a better
statistic for offensive players? Furthermore, WPA (win probability added)
would give you a perfect correlation to victories. Would you consider it?

There is no doubt that WAR is a good answer. But is it THE answer?
Could be, but little support from your long arguments.

: at a certain point, the question in any debate against science is: What are
: you really fighting and why?

You should ask this to yourself, and answer it seriously.

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→ GuyPearce:context
→ searoar:wut
→ searoar:runs scored minus allowed has higher correlation??
→ searoar:even if it's true, wut is that to say about R+RBI??
→ searoar:WPA has a perfect correlation? have you done teh math?
→ tlchen:For the same season (2012), Corr(RS-RA, W)=0.947
→ tlchen:You wont believe that Corr(R+RBI, W)is about the same?
→ tlchen:I said for offensive player, so I roughly divide each
→ tlchen:run to the player scores, and that the player drives in
→ tlchen:Now, for the WPA, do you know the definition? Even if
→ tlchen:you do not know, how about taking the total WPA of any
→ tlchen:team to see if W=81+WPA? If you still do not believe
→ tlchen:that correlation=1, you can check with any calculator
→ tlchen:Sorry, I did not mean to say Corr(R+RBI,W), I meant
→ tlchen:Corr(R+RBI,RS) is nearly 1, so I use it to evaluate the
→ tlchen:offensive performance
→ tlchen:I was not going to argue that R+RBI is better. I want
→ tlchen:to say that it is better by the logic of the author
→ searoar:http://tinyurl.com/a37ngwx not the nats but the giants
→ tlchen:are you sure that you added both batting and pitching?
→ searoar:R=RS and RBI≒R I am not sure wut u goona proof here
→ searoar:OK, my bad, so u know the def of WPA
→ searoar:but don't know wut it designed to answer?
→ tlchen:I don't know what makes you think so. Anyway, whether I
→ tlchen:I know or not is irrelvant. I just follow the author's
→ tlchen:logic to present WPA as a superior statistic
→ tlchen:For R&RBI, as I mentioned above, it would also be a
→ tlchen:better statistic from his logic.
→ Parazicecum:my dick is so big
→ star01:mom, i am here