作者gghh (GH)
看板MLB
標題Re: [討論] Joe Maddon:“the bunt is an overrated
時間Mon Apr 15 03:54:46 2013
※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之銘言：
: http://tinyurl.com/bqf3bb2
: is an overrated play.”
: Using the expected runs matrix at Baseball Prospectus (using 2012 data),
: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1122396
: runners on first and second with no outs yields 1.44 expected runs, while
: runners on second and third with one out yields 1.29 expected runs.
: 1.44>1.29 上太空的西瓜!!
: Theoretically, one would slightly reduce run expectancy by bunting. However,
: the certainty of scoring that one run goes up. Furthermore, bunting creates a
: more realistic opportunity for production than letting Loney, who posted a
: .630 OPS last season, swing away. Though I, like Maddon, think that bunting
: is overrated in many circumstances, that was not one of those situations.
: 但是給ＬＯＮＥＹ打就輸了ＧＧ
這段的重點不在Loney。
作者要表達的是，，雖然期望值較高，但變異數也大，在這種比賽最末段，
只要得一分就很關鍵的情況下，既然都能夠得一分，為什麼不選得分機率較高的bunt?
比賽前段或是打擊大戰用bunt當如不如用free swing
但也不能光用期望值就直接判斷bunt一定比較差 像比賽末段一分差決勝負
要重視的是variance rather than the expected value.
與其說西瓜上太空，不如說又看到一個亂用數據的人 ( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ
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◆ From: 35.10.151.174
※ 編輯: gghh 來自: 35.10.151.174 (04/15 03:58)
推 IanMason:cannot agree with you more 04/15 04:47
推 nolander:推 04/15 05:32
→ OoyaoO:講的好像bunt一定會成功一樣 04/15 07:26
推 nolander:哪裡有講得像bunt一定會成功一樣= =? 04/15 07:32
推 conjohn:變異數應該就已經考量bunt失敗了吧 04/15 09:59
→ conjohn:只是考量後變異數還是較小 04/15 09:59
推 searoar:重點是Loney啊 who posted a .630 OPS last season 04/15 10:13
推 searoar:如果打的人是Pujols 你根本就不會去考慮觸擊 就算他是DP王 04/15 10:16
推 RogerWaters:原文根本沒說什麼Variance的問題, 只是0出局1,2壘有人 04/15 10:37
→ RogerWaters:雖然比1出局2,3壘有人多得一點分, 但得一分的機率1出 04/15 10:37
→ RogerWaters:2,3壘有人是比較高的, 打到九局1比1得一分就贏,還想多 04/15 10:38
→ RogerWaters:得一點分, 何況還遇到上季ops只有.630的Loney 04/15 10:39
一般來說，機率高不就是因為var低嗎？
推 CGary:其實西瓜還有一個錯誤 統計數據可以廣泛應用在的結果 不可 04/15 14:07
→ CGary:直接套用單一案例(Loney)身上...很明顯這兩件事是不同的事 04/15 14:08
※ 編輯: gghh 來自: 35.10.151.174 (04/16 01:27)