[外電] Allen Craig: Ignominious League Leader

[JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)]

Allen Craig: Ignominious League Leader
by Jeff Sullivan - July 18, 2013
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/allen-craig-ignominious-league-leader/

光速簡單翻譯 有興趣再看全文  另外圖可以進去看看 滿有趣的

1.Craig的打擊真的很猛 他是目前現役選手中 "得點圈有人"打擊率最高的選手

對照: Craig .396   (上述打席在250個以上)
      Votto .347
      Mauer .334

2.他這季的跑壘真的是...........很慘  不過不是SB 他這季SB 2-2
  Craig跑壘目前是 -5.7run (對照組:Ellsbury +8.7run)

  目前Craig跑壘比Konerko,V-Mart還悲劇  甚至低於小王子+楊大猛

  那是哪裡出問題???  答案是本壘出局.......

  這季有13位球員3次在本壘出局   Didi是4次
  Craig是驚人的7次

  喔 對了 去年最多的人也才8次  然後他讓Y.Molina少了3RBI

Allen Craig‘s a really good player, mostly because he’s a really good
hitter. He just ranked No. 40 in Dave’s Trade Value series. Allen Craig has
a lot of good things going on, and here’s one of them: he’s been the league
’s best hitter with runners in scoring position. According to
Baseball-Reference, 334 active players have at least 250 career plate
appearances with runners in scoring position. By batting average in the
split, Joe Mauer is third, at .338. Joey Votto is second, at .347. Allen
Craig is first, at .396. Not only is Craig in first; to drop into a tie with
Votto, he’d have to go hitless in his next 43 such at-bats. I’m not
claiming that Craig is unusually clutch, but so far, he’s hit at the right
times, and his category lead is remarkable.

So we have to acknowledge that Craig is good. We have to do this, before
discussing a way in which he’s been bad. A way in which he’s been worse
than everyone else. Allen Craig is a league leader in multiple categories,
and the one explored below isn’t something Craig is going to want to hear
about.

The least-considered component of WAR, seems to me, is base-running. Which
makes sense, because it’s also the least significant, in terms of
variability around average. And to whatever extent people talk about
base-running, a lot of the focus is put on stolen bases. Less consideration
is given to guys who take extra bases, and guys who don’t. Only so much
baseball can be discussed at a time, and base-running usually just isn’t
impactful enough.

But it can be significant at the extremes. According to our metrics, Jacoby
Ellsbury has already been worth +8.7 runs this year on the bases. That is,
basically, a full win. A lot of that has to do with steals; a lot of that
does not. Meanwhile, Allen Craig has already been worth -5.7 runs this year
on the bases. That’s the lowest mark in baseball, lower than Paul Konerko,
lower than Victor Martinez, lower than Prince Fielder plus Delmon Young. This
isn’t about steals. Craig is 2-for-2 in stealing success. This is about
other stuff, and Craig’s a league leader by a lot in another category.

By Baseball-Reference, this year there have been 294 base-running outs at
home. That doesn’t count force plays. These are outs by runners trying to
score from second on singles, or from first on doubles, or from third on fly
balls, or what have you. There are 13 players who have made three such outs
at home. There’s one player — Didi Gregorius — who’s made four. And then
there’s Allen Craig, who’s already made seven. Seven times, Craig has run
into an out at home, which is as many times as could be said for the Reds and
Orioles. That’s more times than could be said for the Yankees, Blue Jays,
Mets, and Royals. Last year’s league leader had eight. The year before, six.
The year before that, seven. Craig, on his own, is responsible for 2.4% of
these outs.

Outs on the bases hurt, and outs at home hurt a little more. Before this
year, Craig had made only four total outs at home, and seven outs on the
bases in all. This is what’s driving that -5.7, and for all the things that’
ve gone right for Craig and the Cardinals, this has been a peculiar negative.
In my way, I thought we’d go ahead and review all seven of Craig’s 2013
outs at home. I didn’t go to the video looking for anything in particular,
but sometimes things stand out that I didn’t expect. So, now, footage of
Allen Craig making somewhat costly outs, at the base that’s weirder than the
other bases and isn’t referred to as a base.

*1
April 14
Craig on first
Thrown out on Yadier Molina double

http://ppt.cc/ce7c

Let’s see that again, shall we?
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/craig2.png

Why, Craig was safe! He was not deserving of this out! But Craig took it all
in stride:
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/craig1.png

So far, we’ve reviewed one Allen Craig out at home, and it wasn’t a
legitimate out at home. It was just ruled that way, but we didn’t learn
anything bad about Allen Craig. Bad break, is all

*2
May 3
Craig on first
Thrown out on Yadier Molina double

http://ppt.cc/RVTU

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/craig3.png

This time, Craig was out, very barely. Open up an Internet stopwatch and
click start and stop as fast as you can. You’ll end up with a time of a
fraction of a second, maybe somewhere around 0.1 or 0.2. That’s about as
fast as you could click. That’s by about how much Allen Craig was thrown
out. In situations like this you don’t even necessarily need to be safe —
 you just need to be close enough to be called safe.

*3
May 3
Craig on second
Thrown out on Pete Kozma single

http://ppt.cc/wKGp

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/allen-craig-ignominious-league-leader/craig4/

Out again, this time more easily, although the throw from the outfield was
just about a direct strike. You’ll notice this happened in the same game.
Within a few innings, Allen Craig made two outs at home on hits by teammates.
The Cardinals won by five.

*4
May 11
Craig on third
Thrown out on fielder’s choice

http://ppt.cc/U-Ai

Craig did help to prevent a would-be double play. But he didn’t stay in a
rundown long enough to allow the runners to reach the corners. Technically,
this is an out at home, even though Craig was tagged much closer to third.

*5
May 29
Craig on second
Thrown out on Yadier Molina single

http://ppt.cc/aNFm

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/craig5.png

That’s three Yadier Molina RBI. Three RBI that Molina doesn’t have to his
name because Allen Craig made outs at home plate. Molina delivered his hits
in the right situations, but they still didn’t score enough runs, and maybe
this’ll matter since Molina should end up in the running for the National
League Most Valuable Player award. But, probably, it won’t matter, because
voters love Molina and have moved somewhat beyond the RBI, at least as far as
catchers are concerned. Molina’s never going to lead the league in that
category. Craig has just lent that fact greater certainty.

*6
June 21
Craig on third
Thrown out on fielder’s choice

http://ppt.cc/32s7

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/craig6.png

Craig was easily out, but only based on the result; the actual process wasn’
t easy, as Adrian Beltre had to make a difficult throw just over Craig’s
head, to A.J. Pierzynski. I don’t know how more of those throws don’t drill
base-runners in brain stems. It’s probably because professional baseball
players are uniformly amazing. And Beltre is one of the greatest defensive
third basemen in the history of the whole entire world

*7
July 7
Craig on second
Thrown out on Tony Cruz single

http://ppt.cc/3K13

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/craig8.png

An out by Allen Craig is actually a hell of a play by Jeff Mathis, as
Giancarlo Stanton‘s throw was up the line. Craig couldn’t avoid the tag,
but Mathis didn’t give him much of a window, so this was just a calculated
risk gone wrong. I can’t speak to the break that Craig got off second base,
given that there were two outs. If the first time Craig was thrown out at
home was funny, by this point he was getting rather sick of the trend:

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/craig7.png

What we’ve learned from all this isn’t much. One of Craig’s outs at home
was the wrong call, although it’s possible Craig has also benefited from a
wrong call in the opposite direction. Maybe he was called safe once or twice
when he was actually out. Some of his outs have been close, some of them haven
’t been, and I wouldn’t say any of this is predictive. Craig’s the league
leader right now, by a good margin, but I don’t think that reveals anything
in the way of “true talent,” so to speak, so maybe it’s hardly worth an
examination. Craig probably isn’t unusually prone to running into outs at
home. It’s probably just looked that way for a few months of one year.

But, seven of ‘em. Before this year, Craig had a total base-running value of
-0.8 runs. Already he’s at -5.7, which is the worst mark in baseball. If you
were wondering why that is, here’s most of the explanation. Craig probably
hasn’t become a way worse base-runner. He’s just been caught in some
circumstances.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 114.25.235.111
※ 編輯: JakeMcGee       來自: 114.25.235.111       (07/19 09:47)
推 ps20012001:就是個第6棒最佳人選...
→ JakeMcGee:這是什麼推論....Craig打6棒....
推 yeah8466:我覺得Craig還不錯啊...@@
推 ck3300511:為啥是第六棒= = 桂格超猛耶
推 ps20012001:就 發揮清壘包的最強功用 後面的棒次有無都可這樣..
推 Guerrieri:清壘包超強 但是沒打算自己回來XDDD
→ ck3300511:將近四成的得點圈打擊..
→ ps20012001:反正紅雀前段打線夠強..能這樣放
推 bensn101:後面幾棒少了7分打點....(誤
推 Levelmax99:他才幾歲而已   拿Konerko來比= =
推 larcqoo:壘包清光了可是自己回不來XD
推 Carmelo3:紅綠燈遇到他都壞掉嗎?
推 EndlessJazz:原文下面有分析他每次本壘出局 超XD
推 jayhang:這樣才能突顯出自己清壘包的能力       (誤
推 hooliya:清壘包連自己都順便清
噓 koil:去年季後賽大烙賽 沒用
推 dapouchi:今年這樣打下去  穩穩過120分打點  有點猛 @_@
推 mistletoej:其實去年季後賽他對國民3/4/5 只有對巨人的時候低潮...
推 Kobelephants:天使表示:
推 azure0920:文章講生涯得點圈打擊率，今年更可怕
→ azure0920:在上半季最後一場比賽前，Craig得點圈打擊率 .483!
→ azure0920:這才是驚天地泣鬼神的成績啊
推 lingjj:除非跑者自己亂跑 不然本壘出局不是三壘指的責任比較大?
推 evilvens:BABIP.407...
推 rayallen1009:低調的強者
推 ben101068:第六棒XD
推 shadowshaikh:桂格成長奶粉? 麥片?
推 chopinlee:桂格也算慢慢磨上來，在Pujols走了以後撐起火力