[外電] On Allen Craig, the Magic Man

[JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)]

On Allen Craig, the Magic Man
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/on-allen-craig-the-magic-man/
by Jeff Sullivan - August 28, 2013

Allen Craig, so far, has been one of baseball’s all-time best hitters with
runners in scoring position. Yes, as in ever. This year, he’s leading the
league in batting average in that split. Last year, he led the league in
batting average in that split. He is the leader, all-time, in such
situational batting average, and his lead isn’t small. If you sort by OPS,
Craig’s near the top of the historical leaderboard — between Albert Pujols
and Joey Votto. Either the man has a knack for delivering important hits, or
he just makes people feel that way.

Craig是目前在得點圈有人(Runners in scoring position, RISP)的情況下最好的打者
之一。在今年跟去年，他RISP的打擊率都是全聯盟第一，而且他是史上RISP打擊率最高
的男人。
如果你改用OPS搜尋，Craig成績也是在歷史排行榜的前段班--就在Pujols跟Votto之間。

The other night, Craig batted in the bottom of the seventh in a game between
the St.Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds were leading 5-4,
but the Cardinals had the bases loaded with two outs. J.J. Hoover threw Craig
a first-pitch fastball, up and away, and Craig swung and took it up and away
for a deciding grand slam. For the Cardinals, it’s been a magical season
when it comes to runners in scoring position, and no one’s had more magic
than Craig. And for him, this is just more of the same. Which leads one to
wonder: What’s going on with Allen Craig, anyway?

幾天前紅雀跟紅人大戰的七局下半，當時比數5:4紅人領先，2人出局，但紅雀攻佔滿壘，
J.J. Hoover投出第一球就被Craig送出全壘打牆之外。
對紅雀來說今年球季在RISP的打擊率相當不可思議，其中Craig更是佼佼者。
這讓我們思考到底Craig是怎麼辦到的？

Craig, of course, is simply a good hitter. Good hitters deliver good hits.
But over his career, with runners in scoring position, he’s batted .392. He’
s slugged .635, and if you put it all together, you get a 194 wRC+. Moreover,
Craig just recently passed 400 career situational plate appearances, so we’
re not talking about a one-season fluke. What Craig’s done is the kind of
thing that gets an analyst’s attention. While no firm conclusion is offered
below — I haven’t solved the Allen Craig mystery, either — this begs to be
investigated. Here are some assorted points. This is the result of a deeper
look into Craig’s career splits, born of a reluctance to just simply say he’
s going to regress.

Craig是非常棒的打擊好手，而好打者會擊出安打。但是他的生涯中RISP的打擊率
高達.392，長打率則是.635，而wRC+:194。另外他生涯剛剛在RISP突破400個打席
，所以我們不是要討論一個球季僥倖成績。Craig達成的成績讓分析家非常感興趣
，雖然下方文章並沒有提供確切的解答(我還沒解出這謎團)。

(1) The strikeouts

一、三振

When you see a split that’s unusually big, you wonder if it’s capturing
something real. When you wonder if it’s capturing something real, you look
for other indicators, signs of a changed approach or whatnot. With the bases
empty, Craig has hit grounders 42% of the time. With runners in scoring
position, he’s hit grounders 42% of the time. There’s nothing there. But
some people have already observed the difference in strikeouts. With the
bases empty, Craig has struck out 20% of the time. With runners in scoring
position, he’s struck out fewer than 13% of the time, and that’s a
significant gap. That’s an increase in balls in play, and that could be the
result of a deliberate process. The drop in strikeouts convinces some people
that Craig really is quite different.

當你看到其中一項分項成績相當不尋常，你就會猜想是不是真的有獲取到真實的事情，
當你想是不是有獲取到真的事情，你會去找尋其他指標。

當壘包上沒人，Craig擊出42%的滾地球，當RISP時，他也擊出42%的滾地球，其實沒有差距
，但眼尖的人已經發現他的三振比例不一樣了。當壘包空的時候，他三振20%，RISP的時候
下降到13%以下，這下降的幅度相當大，也讓某些人相信Craig是真的不太一樣。

I’m not going to argue passionately otherwise, but I’ll note that Craig’s
strikeout split isn’t unprecedented. I looked at all the active players with
at least 250 plate appearances with the bases empty and with runners in
scoring position. I calculated their split strikeout rates, and the
correlation between them is .92. Here are the top five guys with the biggest
strikeout-rate reductions, in percentage points:

Craig的三振差別性成績並沒沒有先例，我在現役打者在壘上無人跟RISP都至少250個打席
的調查中，上述2種情境的三振%的相關係數是0.92，另外也找出了三振%差距最大的5個人

Travis Ishikawa, -7.4 percentage points with runners in scoring position (K%)
Allen Craig, -7.1
Travis Snider, -6.9
Jonny Gomes, -5.6
Wilson Valdez, -5.5

Jeff Mathis ranks sixth. I don’t know what this list is telling me, if it’s
telling me anything at all. For most players, strikeout rates with runners in
scoring position look a lot like strikeout rates with the bases empty. Craig’
s been different, but Travis Ishikawa has been just as different. (And do we
have any particular opinions about Travis Ishikawa?)

Mathis排名第六。對大部分的球員來說，在RISP的情況下三振是更多的，但Craig不同。

This is a point neither for nor against sustainability. Craig isn’t the
first player to trim his strikeouts when there are runners to drive in.

(2) The sample

二、樣本

Let’s just put this out there: This is Craig’s fourth season in the majors.
When a guy has been showing a trend over four seasons in the majors, one is
inclined to believe in it. After all, four years is a lot, right? Sure, but we
’re not looking at overall performance — we’re looking at splits, and
Craig just passed 400 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. He
has the equivalent of a fraction of one whole year in that split, so we can
read into it only so much. Over a stretch of 393 plate appearances between
2011 and 2012, Craig posted a .979 OPS. Over his next 416 plate appearances,
he posted a .770 OPS. The cliche is that baseball analysts are always talking
about fluctuation and randomness. Fluctuation is real, and it’s important
for us to understand and appreciate.

(簡單說作者認為生涯有400個RISP打席的樣本 相當夠了)

(3) The complication

三、複雜度
(這段有點難翻 )
Over more than 400 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Craig’
s batted .392. That is, of course, extraordinary. If one were to look for
explanations, maybe Craig’s gotten easier pitches to hit. Maybe he thrives
against pitchers working out of the stretch, and maybe he’s fond of
different defensive alignments. Maybe Craig just mentally bears down when
there’s someone else to bring home.

But then there’s this: Craig has batted 268 times with a runner on first. He
’s hit .254, with a .710 OPS. His strikeout rate is the same as it is with
nobody on. If there’s something about different pitches, we don’t see it
here. If there’s something about pitchers working out of the stretch, we don
’t see it here. Hitting with a runner on first doesn’t have the same
feeling as hitting with runners in scoring position, so this leaves open the
psychological possibilities. But Craig’s been worse with a man on first than
he’s been with no men on. That’s difficult to reconcile with a belief that
we’re not observing interesting randomness.

當1壘有人時，Craig打擊率.254、OPS:0.710，三振率也跟壘上無人時一樣。

(4) The clutch factor

四、關鍵時刻因素

Read that a guy does well with runners in scoring position, and you’re going
to see him as clutch. You might want to believe he’s just able to focus
extra hard when the pressure is on, that he can achieve a higher level.
According to FanGraphs, Craig owns a 140 career wRC+ in high-leverage
situations, and a 136 wRC+ in the other situations. According to
Baseball-Reference, Craig owns an .879 career OPS in high-leverage
situations, and an .849 OPS in the other situations. Those differences are,
basically, too small to worry about. To whatever extent Craig’s performance
with runners in scoring position has to do with his being clutch, by other
measures he hasn’t been particularly clutch or unclutch. By WPA, his career
Clutch score is actually slightly negative, not that that’s something we
talk about often.

看到一位打者在RISP上表現相當好，你會把他視為關鍵打者。你可能會相信這類打者
有能力在壓力情況下更專注、可以達成更高的打擊水平。
根據Fangraphs，Craig生涯在高強度的情況 wRC+是140，其他情況是136。根據Baseball-
Reference，Craig生涯在高強度的情況OPS:.879，其他情況是.849
這些差異，基本上來說都太小了。而從一個分析方法(WPA)來檢視Craig的關鍵表現，
Clutch score甚至還是些微的負數，並非我們看到的情況。

(5) The spray chart

五、打擊落點圖

As you can imagine, Allen Craig has been asked about Allen Craig, before. Here
’s an article from the USA Today from not too far back. Said Craig:

Craig曾被USA Today訪問過，以下是他所說的：

“The name of the game is giving yourself the best chance to succeed,” he
says. “If you’re trying to pull the ball in that (RISP) situation, you
leave yourself susceptible to anything away. It’s always good to keep the
ball in the middle of the field. That’s not to stay I never try to pull the
ball with runners in scoring position, but for the most part, it’s trying to
hit the ball hard on a line somewhere.”

如果你打算在RISP的時候強拉，會容易被吊外角，而把球打在球場中間一直是
件好事，但我不是說我不會在RISP的時候強拉，但是大部份我都是試著把球打的強勁。

According to Baseball-Reference, with the bases empty, Craig has hit 56% of
his balls in play up the middle. With runners in scoring position, that jumps
to 64%. That supports the idea that Craig has just been looking to make
contact and spray the ball. The strikeout rates also support the same idea.
More confusing: Craig hits for more power with runners in scoring position.
So if he’s cut down his swing, he hasn’t hit like it. Craig hasn’t traded
power for contact and spraying. He’s gained contact and power and spraying.

根據BR的資料，Craig在壘上無人時，球在中間的落點是56%，壘上有人升高至64%。
這支持了Craig之前訪問中的談話(增加contact和把球打的強勁)，前面提到的三振率
也同樣支持了這個論點。
奇怪的是Craig在RISP中呈現更大的擊球力道，可是在降低了揮棒速度是不可能達到的。
Craig並沒有把他的炮瓦跟contact做交換，他同時提升了contact跟炮瓦。

To get back to the main point, what we see here is the slightest hint of the
idea that something is different in Craig’s head when there are runners on
second and/or third. So that could be a thing.

(6) The words

六、文字

On the other hand, from the same article:

“I feel like I have the same focus every time,” says Cardinals All-Star
slugger Allen Craig, the game’s best hitter with RISP. “I’ve just had a
lot of opportunities with runners on base this year. It’s nothing I try to
explain.”

Craig說：我每次打擊都是一樣專注，我只是有很多RISP的打擊機會。

And the Cardinals’ general manager, John Mozeliak, speaking not specifically
about Craig, but about his team:

“At some point, you typically expect some regression to the mean or some
normalcy,” says Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak, who is among the
new breed of GMs who place great value on analyzing statistics. “Having it
be sustained year in and year out isn’t a good strategy. But it could defy
and be a one-year outlier.”
[...]
“I don’t think from a statistical approach you can say this is sustainable
for additional years,” Mozeliak says. “For us, enjoy the ride as we take it.
”
John Mozeliak說：有時候你會預期到回歸平均值或是正常；我不覺得從統計上來看這
可以持續，但對我們而言，就在有這種表現下繼續享受吧。

Craig doesn’t think he’s a different hitter with runners in scoring
position. The guy in charge of the Cardinals figures this’ll eventually all
balance out. He didn’t even try to suggest this is part of some
organizational plan. Mozeliak spoke of his own team like a FanGraphs writer,
and you figure he wouldn’t have done so if he believed even a little bit
that this situational success is sustainable. Presumably, the Cardinals have
investigated, being the team responsible for all this statistical confusion.
Ask them and they’ll shrug their shoulders.

Craig並不認為他在RISP中是不同的球員。而紅雀GM則認為這些數據終究會趨近平衡，
他甚至不認為這是球隊組織的計畫，他的回答方式就像FanGraphs的作家，而且他也不
會這樣作，甚至在目前情況下是可持續的。
我推測紅雀球團有團隊負責這些統計工作，但如果你問他們他們大概都只會聳聳肩。

—–

This is the part I hate writing: Allen Craig has a really interesting career
split. It’s my belief that, over time, things will balance out. That’s such
a stereotypical analyst perspective, but the fact is that most things
regress, and regression spoils a lot of would-be fascinating stories. Craig,
for his part, denies his approach changes much depending on the situation.
The guy who gave Craig his contract doesn’t think there’s more to good
hitting than good hitting. The only reason to believe something’s different
is what the numbers say, and the numbers are based on limited samples. And so
on and so forth — you know this part by heart.

Allen Craig, at least, has made a lot of people curious. Allen Craig, at
least, has caused people to notice. Allen Craig, at least, has left me not
completely certain he’s going to regress all the way. I don’t know if there
’s really something about Craig, but I do know that I don’t know that. And
that has to count for something.

(作者最後相信Craig的成績終究會趨近平衡，但他不確定是不是真的會這樣)

===
其實下方討論很有趣，美國鄉民認為是紅雀2B跑者 偷暗號XDDDD

--
9/13/12 http://rays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24737137&c_id=mlb
Lew Ford       K
Adam Jones     K
Chris Davis    K    strikes out the side

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 114.25.233.105
推 traurigkeit:為RISP打擊而生的男人！！
推 nolander:推偷暗號XD
推 ck3300511:RBI Machine
→ ck3300511:可以借轉憤怒鳥板嗎嗎
→ JakeMcGee:請轉阿XDD 但是翻譯的不是很好 哈哈
→ searoar:還有個影片在討論壘上有人你想要Craig還是Votto
推 pray7th:
推 Kobelephants:新世代無冕王誕生了
→ lowPHkiller:...剛好發了一篇Votto  XDD
推 Narancia:還以為你們說好的
→ lowPHkiller:如果是季後賽 當然選桂格 打點進來比較重要
※ ck3300511:轉錄至看板 Cardinals                                  08/29 11:52
推 seeyou1002:Craig 因為等等他會死在本壘前
→ JakeMcGee:seeyou1002大 你有看上次的文章齁XDD
→ EEERRIICC:跑壘GG
推 mrkey:偷暗號沒什麼好說的吧 這也是"基本功"之一
推 Pujols5:不止Craig 壘上有人OPS國聯前十名有四個是紅雀的
→ Pujols5:然後總共有六個人在三十名內 這根本中邪阿
→ JakeMcGee:所以國外鄉民才說紅雀整隊狂偷暗號阿XDD
推 Ybrother:合理懷疑偷暗號!!!
推 mika0730:好文 推!
推 evilvens:
推 ck3300511:這篇跟下面的人氣差好多 桂格果然低調
推 Hans14:leave yourself susceptible to anything away 易被吊外角
→ JakeMcGee:感謝Hans14大補充
※ 編輯: JakeMcGee       來自: 114.25.233.105       (08/29 13:28)
推 subaruband:King of RISP！
→ catsondbs:推偷暗號  xddddddd
推 TSbb:紅鳥，不意外。
推 JeffMathis:...
推 jardon:紅鳥的1B沒一個是好惹的
→ CGary:這樣是說Pujols離開後沒有暗號了嘛？XD
→ iso903306:Power up
推 ben101068:最後一句恍然大悟!?　（大誤
推 Sparksfly:Push
推 kusami:最後一句順便解釋Pujols去天使的表現XD?