Best Big Game Pitcher

作者FreeFly ( )

站內MLB

標題Best Big Game Pitcher

時間Thu Feb 13 19:51:05 2014

這是一篇求檔文..... Bill James最近出了一系列的Big Game Pithers ... 這個話題永遠是戰意滿點 XDD 不過大師發表模型了還是想拜一下 http://www.billjamesonline.com/ 但是要錢 XDD 有沒有神通廣大的大大有原文的 -- 其實是有看到一些人寫的片段所以才注意到 ESPN專欄 http://tinyurl.com/nyfs75t 裡面說到大師有一個模型先去定義甚麼是Big Game 不過他定義的Big Game是以季賽為主(??) 參數有比賽的時間[季末強度越高] ; 區(外卡)排名狀況 ; 對手強度去計算出big game score 超過310分的就列為big game Data從1952年開始分析簡單的說在強隊而且常常在季末陷入膠著的球隊王牌就會在越多的big game先發然後透露內文有幾個點... 1. Pettitte是先發過最多big game的投手 [82場] Jim Palmer and Roger Clemens排名第二 [81場] 2. 生涯先發遭遇big game比例最高的是Sandy Koufax, Johnny Podres和Jon Lester 3. 先發最多但是從來沒投過big game的是Zach Duke [169]場 4. Bill James列出Top 11 最強的不告訴你第2名是Bob Gibson ; 第11名是Mike Mussina -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 所以第一名是........?? Roy Oswalt Gibson’s won-lost record in regular-season Big Games was 36-14; Oswalt's is 37-9. Gibson's teams were 40-17; Oswalt's were 46-12. Think about it: 46-12 in Big Games. Gibson's ERA was 2.26; Oswalt's was 2.63. When you adjust for context, I suspect that Oswalt wins that one. Oswalt pitched 80 fewer innings than Gibson, but struck out almost as many batters (341 to 352) and walked half as many (73 to 144). Roy Oswalt won a tremendous number of Big Games for the Astros in the mid-2000s, but when there are six pennant races to follow and two Wild Cards, things get lost in the shuffle. Oswalt's constant drumbeat of Big Wins late in the season didn't have the impact of Bob Gibson winning 7 games in September of '64. But ... just the facts. Oswalt has won 80% of his Big Games. Wow. http://tinyurl.com/kec23px 又是這個專欄作家原來第一篇不寫就是在來騙一篇專欄 XD -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.142.13.11

推 SlamKai:\推土機/ 02/13 20:04

推 jason12308:推土機沒冠軍命 02/13 20:11

推 mksykcntdnrr:推Oswalt 02/13 20:14

→ charlie01:如果列入季後賽又會是另一番名單 02/13 20:15

推 HankJiang:推文不需理由 02/13 20:18

推 sonnyissonny:季後賽Big Game Pitcher不知為何我會第一個想到席林 02/13 20:36

→ sonnyissonny:季賽的話還真是沒頭緒~@@ 02/13 20:36

→ FreeFly:大概大師認為季後賽都是big game不需要模型吧 XD 02/13 20:43

→ FreeFly:不過看不到原文所以不知道針對季後賽有沒有納入或是看法 02/13 20:47

→ FreeFly:他的系列文總共有10篇看看有沒有大德可以分享了 02/13 20:48

推 bestteam:說到大賽型第一個是想到schilling耶 02/13 21:26

推 cowew:和樓上一樣+1 02/13 21:34

推 albertlaw:近年的話想到的第一個是V中除了12年WS G1.... 02/13 22:21

推 nati:季後賽大投手一定要推席林生涯11-2 era2.23 大賽型投手無誤 02/13 22:56

推 cowking520:我想到木匠..... 02/14 00:23

推 colin79813:Cliff Lee跟哈大夫也是 02/14 00:29

→ sysstat:還有史莫茲阿 02/14 00:30

推 zunino:80%......以棒球這運動來看滿可怕的 02/14 00:59

推 JessicaA1ba: V中有被功夫熊貓慘電的汙點....... 02/14 01:01

推 atriple:我想到Pettitte 02/14 01:27

推 jasongo:莫忘C.Schilling!! 02/14 08:55

推 peterqlin:推Kaufax 02/14 19:24

推 cshepower:老虎韋蘭德+1 運動家連兩年輸他打包回家 02/15 11:29