[討論] 讓我們再次關心鱒案

[Zamned (扎姆德)]

這篇太難喏QQ

好像是說雖然伸卡球對阿鱒管用，但是阿鱒真得太會打低球，所以常常把國王打成____。

下半季大家開始修正攻擊方式，更多的高球、更多的四縫線快速球，阿鱒沒問題嗎？

這樣有十五個字嗎？QQ


Fangraphs還有一篇V馬打壞球比喝水還容易的統計，結合黃皮耶Contact與兔肉
戰鬥力的V馬是神文章，那篇也好難，有大大能幫忙翻譯嗎？QQ

Forcing a Reason to Worry About Mike Trout, Again
http://tinyw.in/RUGp


I wrote something like this before, in the beginning of May of this season.
During an arbitrary stretch between April 19 and May 14, Mike Trout struck
out in 31% of his plate appearances, posting a .722 OPS. I identified the
strikeouts as something to pay attention to, and then from May 15 through the
All-Star break, Trout struck out in 20% of his plate appearances, posting a
1.111 OPS. So. Obviously, Trout adjusted to whatever needed to be adjusted
to, or alternatively, the randomness swung in the other direction. For a
while, it was easy to forget that Trout had ever slumped.


But now we’re back! Having learned nothing from the first go-round, I’m
here to tell you to worry just a little bit about Mike Trout’s strikeouts.
Since the All-Star break, Trout’s whiffed nearly 30% of the time, and he’s
managed an OPS under .800. He’s still been a good player. He’s still been a
terrifying player. He’s still, as of this moment, the almost certain winner
of the American League’s Most Valuable Player award. But we’re obligated by
social contract to write about Trout at any opportunity, and there are signs
pitchers are finally trying to take advantage of his vulnerabilities. You
know the ones. You’ve thought about them for hours.



Let’s summarize by splitting Trout’s season at the break. Here is what’s
happened with a few numbers:


K% – BB%: worse by 9.5 percentage points in the second half
Fly ball%: up six percentage points
Pop up%: up seven percentage points
Fastball run value: down 1.6 runs per 100 fastballs
Contact%: down three percentage points
Zone%: up four percentage points
wRC+: down 59 points


Everything kind of leads to the last bit. Trout’s made less contact, and he’
s put more balls in the air, generally more weakly. So while he’s still been
a good hitter the last couple months, he hasn’t been the terror he
previously was. Now pay extra attention to that part about fastball run
value. Trout, against non-fastballs, has mostly been fine in the second half.
But fastballs have given him fits. And now we get to talk about that
vulnerability we’ve pointed out here before.


Trout might be the game’s premier low-ball hitter. My theory is that’s why
he’s had so much success against Felix Hernandez. Felix has tried to pitch
to Trout right around where Trout likes to be pitched. This year Trout has
slugged .664 against pitches no more than 2.5 feet off the ground, and .682
against pitches no more than 2 feet off the ground. Meanwhile, he’s slugged
.353 against pitches at least 2.5 feet off the ground, and .104 against
pitches at least 3 feet off the ground. Trout, probably, isn’t as extreme as
those splits suggest, but he’s got the swing to destroy pitches around the
knees, and that can leave him open against stuff by the belt.


So how has Trout been pitched in the second half? Some numbers, from Brooks
Baseball:


First half: 39% four-seamers
Second half: 49%


First half: 23% sinkers
Second half: 16%

Trout has one of baseball’s biggest increases in four-seamer rate, and those
are pitches you tend to find more up in the zone. He’s had a similar but
smaller drop in sinker rate, and sinkers, of course, hang around the bottom
of the zone when thrown properly. Those numbers hint at something; these
numbers demonstrate something. From Baseball Savant:

First half: 42.5% pitches at least 2.5 feet off the ground
Second half: 49.0%

It’s not the very biggest increase in baseball, but it’s among them.
Pitchers have been more willing to challenge Trout up, and in the meantime he
hasn’t quite been himself. Or he’s been exactly himself, only against a
different array of pitches than he’s used to. In the first half, he saw 38%
four-seamers with two strikes. In the second half, he’s seen 50%. Those
pitches are more often up, and they’re also a little more often away, just
to try to keep Trout from pulling the ball like he likes.


This isn’t an easy thing to see pitch-to-pitch, especially since there’s a
difference between pitch idea and pitch execution. Just because a pitch went
up or down doesn’t mean that’s what was supposed to happen. But just as a
maybe-example, here’s an at-bat between Trout and Colby Lewis from the first
half of the season:


http://tinyw.in/groO

Everything down, but for a mistake slider middle-middle. Here’s Trout
against Lewis in the second half, in the same ballpark with the same catcher:

http://tinyw.in/Delg

Fastballs up. Four of ‘em. Colby Lewis doesn’t have a spectacular fastball,
but everything looks faster high and tight, and Trout couldn’t catch up.
This is one example that might not even be one good example, but the numbers
speak for themselves. Trout’s been pitched more often in just the way it
seemed like would be a good idea a few months ago.

I’ll note, also, that Trout hasn’t just struggled with four-seamers — he’
s also had issues with those sinkers. But, the usage of one pitch can have an
effect on the success of other pitches, as everything’s related. Pitchers
are more often changing Trout’s eye level. There’s also this, from Brooks
Baseball: in the second half, pitchers have thrown 26% fewer sinkers in the
zone, and 33% more sinkers in just off the plate. So you’ve got Trout seeing
more four-seamers up, and more running fastballs in on the hands. Then the
breaking balls get separated from the fastballs, as pitchers open up almost
every quadrant.


I have one odd question that might seem unusual: how much of this is because
of Trout, and how much of this is because of the pitchers the Angels have
faced? The Angels, as a team, have seen baseball’s second-highest increase
in four-seamer rate since the break, and they’ve seen baseball’s greatest
decrease in sinker rate. Trout can’t explain all of that. Maybe this is less
about preparing for Trout, and more about a run of arms more likely to throw
high fastballs. That seems like silliness — it seems like Trout would demand
particular attention — but then, pitchers hadn’t really adjusted to Trout
before, so maybe this is a fluke. It perhaps shouldn’t be a fluke, but we’
ll see how it continues.


And we’ll see how Trout performs. We know he’s been far better on low
pitches than high pitches, but maybe he’s been specifically targeting low
pitches. If he is deliberately getting pitched up more often, maybe Trout
starts to look for that, and maybe Trout starts to punish that. Maybe that
then leaves him a little more vulnerable to pitches at the bottom. Maybe Trout
’s actually able to cover all areas. Or maybe it’ll just turn out that the
best player in baseball can be exposed around the belt and the belly button.
If so, it feels like it shouldn’t have taken this long, but when you’re
told over and over to try to keep the ball down, it turns into a personal
strength, and, who would pitch away from their strengths? I mean, how good
could a hitter possibly be?

--
Gregory (Portland, Ore.)：
Does your hot sauce preference lean more Tabasco or Cholula?

Klaw(3:09 PM)：
Sriracha destroys them both like Jorge Soler murders baseballs.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.115.135.46
※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1410743376.A.0ED.html
※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.135.46), 09/15/2014 09:11:27
※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.135.46), 09/15/2014 09:12:03
→ krajicek: 阿鱒今年MVP會不會全票通過啊？
推 ckpioneer: 如果他是雙冠王+金手套 很有可能全票通過
推 Mrlegend: 阿鱒太神啦
推 GigiBuffon: 可是聽說阿鱒今年防守很爛?
推 acd51874: 呵呵  聽說     造成戰亂也不用負責任
推 kelpiejo: V馬那一篇如果晚上回家還沒有人翻我就翻
推 cacac: 那大概就是等你回家
推 wuming2: 支持阿土伯
→ o0991758566: 天使戰績那麼好  應該機會超大
推 wwww7401: 天使如果拿到全聯盟戰績最好的話 那鱒魚應該就很穩了
推 Carmelo3: 今年米糕公務員因傷消極怠工  Trout應該沒對手?
→ Zamned: .334/.403/.571 62BB/39K 31HR   V馬表示：
推 Miketroutla: MVP!!!!
推 pikachu123: V馬今年最強打者無誤 整年只被K39次... 加上31HR
→ pikachu123: 可以挑戰一下HR比SO多的紀錄XD
→ pikachu123: 上一個有人達成的那個人叫Barry Bonds...
→ pikachu123: 再往前都是195X年了..
推 pikachu123: 他這個月還沒被三振過..
推 whalelover: 今天被三振了
推 anguskenneth: V馬其實mvp也有希望吧
推 fan0226: V馬合約年?? 我記得他去年不是痛痛嗎
→ nomad51227: 剩下14場 "V-Mart" 要打 "9"轟且不被K才有可能HR>SO
→ nomad51227: 挑戰一下，果然只是一下，慶菜公共
→ nomad51227: 13場，更正
推 xw668: 好誇張啊  30幾全壘打 通常這種長打型選手三振有80以下我就
→ xw668: 覺得相當厲害了  v馬目前才40k....
推 schumi945: Abreu也滿有機會的 就戰績差了點
推 arthur6401: 阿鱒有守備，V罵只能卡DH，MVP我投阿鱒一票
→ ramiraz615: 鱒魚好歹是守CF耶 光光譜就贏DH一大段了