Fw: [翻譯] Gerrit Cole 2017展望

[kelpiejo (開啤酒)]

※ [本文轉錄自 Pirates 看板 #1OyGGHYr ]

作者: kelpiejo (開啤酒) 看板: Pirates
標題: [翻譯] Gerrit Cole 2017展望
時間: Sat Apr 15 01:17:02 2017

等著2:20的比賽，快速翻譯一下幫Cole集氣

https://cannonballcorner.com/2017/04/13/gerrit-coles-2017-outlook/

Gerrit Cole entered 2016 as the Pirates ace and left 2016 as an injury risk
and a guy who struggled to hold a sub 4.00 ERA.

Now that Taillon has looks great on the mound, the conversation has shifted
away from how good Cole is to who is the true ace in Pittsburgh.

It is unfortunate that fans need to make a competition out of everything.
This year the Pirates have a real chance to have a great young rotation, and
all that can be discussed is if Taillon is the player that the fans want Cole
to be.

2016年開季，Cole在海盜扮演了王牌的角色，球季結束，卻變成一個傷勢纏身，掙扎著
把ERA控制在4邊緣的凡人。

Taillon現在看起來表現很好，大家的話題不再是「Cole有多棒」，而是「誰才是匹茲堡
真王牌」。

不幸地，球迷就是凡事都愛比較。今年海盜很可能會有一個很棒的年輕輪值，而討論重點
就是，Taillon會不會成為球迷都希望Cole成為的王牌呢？


Is Gerrit Cole still an ace? Well, you can decide for yourself. I think he
is, but it all comes down to how you want to define what an ‘ace’ is.
Either way, Gerrit Cole was not an ace in 2016.  And him being an ace is
pivotal towards the Pirates success. Neal Huntington even said this past
offseason that “There’s no coincidence that we were good when Gerrit was
good.” But, will he be an ace in 2017?

No matter how you break it down, Gerrit Cole’s 2016 was definitely not that
of an ace. A 3.88 ERA is absolutely not what you want from your ‘ace’
 pitcher. However, he is still just 26 years old. A bad season at 25 in which
he was injured throughout, should not be enough to have your status as an ace
thrown out.

Cole還是個王牌嗎？每個人都各有各自的答案。我覺得他是啊，不過終究是要看你要怎麼
定義「王牌」這個詞。不管如何，2016的Cole並不是王牌。投出王牌水準的Cole對海盜的
成功絕對是關鍵，就連GM Huntington都說，「Gerrit投得好的時候，我們就打得好，這
才不是巧合哩。」好，那Cole在2017會是王牌嗎？

不管怎麼看，2016的Cole絕對不是王牌，你不會說一個防禦率3.88的投手是王牌的。但不
管怎樣，他才26歲，在25歲球季因為傷病的關係投得不好，不應該就讓我們把他的王牌標
籤丟掉。

So why was 2016 so much different than 2015? In 2016 Cole had made 3 trips to
the disabled list, and his first injury occurred in spring. It is likely he
was never fully healthy at any point in the season. In the spring, he was
suffering from inflammation in his ribs, and then over the course of the
regular season he was placed on the disabled list twice for inflammation in
his right elbow and once for a strained triceps.

Elbow inflammation is a scary thing. Jameson Taillon started with elbow
inflammation before it progressed to Tommy John surgery. Elbow inflammation
doesn’t always end in Tommy John surgery, but it is a scary sign that the
worst is yet to come. Hopefully, for Gerrit Cole’s and the Pirates sake, his
elbow is completely healed and he won’t have to go under the needle in 2017.

Gerrit Cole can touch high 90s with his fastball. Last year he had the 8th
fastest fastball in the league for a starter at 95.2 mph. But, what turns him
from a flamethrower into an ace, is his slider. In 2015, Cole’s slider was
responsible for 41% of his strikeouts, and opponents hit just .200 against
it. In 2016, that dipped to 31.6% and .275 respectively.

那2016和2015有什麼不一樣？2016球季Cole進了三次DL，而且他第一次受傷是在春訓，所
以有可能整個賽季他都沒有完全健康過。春訓時他的肋骨發炎，季中兩次因為手肘發炎進
DL，還有一次是扭傷的三頭肌。

手肘發炎是很可怕的。Taillon在動TJ手術之前也是從手肘發炎開始的。手肘發炎跟動TJ
手術並不能畫上等號，但是還是很可怕，表示著可能有更嚴重的事情會發生。為了Cole和
海盜好，希望Cole的手肘已經醫好，而且2017不用動刀。

Cole的速球可以丟到97mph以上，去年在全聯盟先發投手，他速球球速95.2mph排行第八。
不過，能讓他成為王牌而不只是火球男的，是他的滑球。2015年，Cole的三振次數有41%
是被滑球K掉的，對手打滑球只有兩成打擊率。2016年，三振次數只有31.6%是滑球貢獻的
，對手打擊率也上升到0.275。

Last season, Cole’s biggest problem was getting out lefties. He allowed a
.371 wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) to lefties last season, where as in 2015
he limited them to a .266 wOBA. To help put that into perspective, last year
the league average wOBA was .318. So Cole went from about 50 points above
average to 50 points below average in one year. This has never been an issue
in the past. Cole has always been great against both lefties and righties,
but now he has seemed to have developed quite an issue with lefties.

Cole’s slider was his biggest issue against lefties last year. As you can
see in the image below, his slider remained elite against righties but took a
big hit against lefties.

上一季Cole最大的問題就是解決不了左打。2016左打的wOBA是0.371，2015則只有0.266。
2016全聯盟平均wOBA是0.318，所以兩季相比，Cole從優於聯盟平均0.05變成劣於聯盟平
均0.05。以前這不是問題，Cole對左打右打都很棒，不過現在他看起來對左打有不小的隱
憂。而他的滑球是對左打最大的問題。以下圖表可以看出來，滑球對右打依然犀利，但是
被左打打得咪咪帽帽。

https://goo.gl/7K9hgv

The image above shows his issues with the pitch last year. In 2015 Cole’s
slider was responsible for a .151 AVG against lefties and almost doubled to a
.294 average in 2016. That’s like going from facing Gerrit Cole as a batter
to Starling Marte.

上圖秀出了他的滑球在2016的問題。2015年Cole的滑球讓左打的打擊率只有0.151，但是
到了2016幾乎倍增到了0.294。感覺就像是打擊區本來是Gerrit Cole本人，但是後來換
成了Starling Marte一樣。

https://goo.gl/8QoJaT

The GIF above shows swings against Gerrit Cole’s slider. In 2015, the
heatmap shows he had more swings in the bottom of the strike zone. In 2016,
hitters started to swing at his slider when it was more in the middle of the
plate, probably due to the fact that he threw it more in the middle of the
plate. Not a good combination.

His slider has also lost movement. His slider would more often break inside
on hitters, but in 2016 it stayed out of the middle of the plate. That is
concerning, but I think at least some of that can be disregarded as just side
effects of not being healthy. Still, it is important that he gets his
movement back on his slider or hitters will be able to crush it like in 2016.

這張GIF是對Cole的滑球揮擊的樣態。2015的時候打者大多在低角度揮擊他的滑球，但是
2016的heatmap往好球帶中央偏移了，或許是因為他的滑球在2016投得比較紅中，這不是
什麼好事。

滑球的變化也不見了。原來他的滑球會往打者內側轉，但是2016年卻停在紅球帶中央。
這值得留意，但我覺得可以先不用討論，因為或許只是不夠健康的關係。不過把滑球的
變化找回來還是很重要，不然打者跟2016一樣可是會重擊他的。

https://goo.gl/rzsIoP

Here is another GIF that shows how often lefties swung at his slider. As you
can see, they had a much easier time laying off of it down out of the strike
zone in 2016 than they did in 2015.

這張GIF是另一個左打者打Cole滑球的呈現。看得出來，2016的打者對他的滑球比起2015
年更容易放掉了。

https://goo.gl/PNACyV

This GIF shows the percentage of times that left handed hitters swung and
missed at a pitch in the zone. As you can clearly see, in 2015 down and in
was a huge issue for hitters. In 2016, they were able to lay off everything.

這張GIF秀的是左打者揮空滑球的比例。可以清楚地看出來，2015內角偏低的角度讓左打
很痛苦，但是2016年，幾乎什麼角度的滑球左打者都打得到。

Sliders are not typically meant to be used as an out pitch against lefties.
But it has worked for him in the past, so there was no need to change it. A
good third pitch to neutralize lefties, like a changeup, would certainly help
propel Cole back to being an elite pitcher.

滑球一般來說不是對左打最大的武器，但是對Cole卻很有效，所以沒什麼好改變的。倒是
找到第三顆球路來對左打，可能會讓Cole重返強投之林。

One of the stats that took a huge hit in 2016 was his K-BB%. In 2016 his K%
decreased 5% and his BB% increased 1.8% compared to 2015. In total his K-BB
was 12.3%. A large drop from his 19% in 2015. He went from being in the top
15% to the bottom 40% in just one year.

K-BB%在2016衰退了很多。2016年他的K%掉了5%，BB%升高了1.8%。K-BB在2016是12.3%，
比起2015的19%是差了一大截，本來是聯盟前15%，變成了聯盟倒數40%。

There might be some room for optimism. Gerrit was likely not fully healthy at
any point last year, and that could be the reason his slider had a drop in
movement. He also had the 4th highest BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In
Play) in the league, just behind Mike Pelfrey. His slider of course had a
.393 BABIP, an increase from his .319 the previous year. Its pretty unlikely
that his BABIP will stay that high in 2017 as his career BABIP is .316.

In 2015, in 2 strike counts Cole limited hitters to a .199 OBP and struck out
hitters 46.6% and a .286 BABIP. In 2016, that moved all the way to a .302 OBP
and a 38.4% strikeout percentage and a .412 BABIP. His average exit velocity
went from 86.5% in 2015 to 87.7%. That is such a small increase that I think
its highly likely that his .412 BABIP was just a case of bad luck.

或許還是有樂觀的空間啦。Cole在2016年可能一刻是處在完全健康的狀態之下，這或許是
滑球變化不夠的原因。他是全聯盟BABIP第四高的投手，滑球當然也很高，有0.393，在
2015年可是只有0.319而已。在2017他的BABIP很難會繼續持續這麼高，畢竟他生涯平均是
0.316

2015年，兩個好球時Cole讓打者只有0.199的上壘率，三振掉了46.6%的打者，BABIP只有
0.286。在2016年這些數據都變差了。打者上壘率變成0.302，三振率降到38.4%。打者擊
中球的速度只有增加一點，所以我認為那高達0.412的BABIP只是運氣差罷了。

For Gerrit to improve in 2017, he needs to get his 2015 slider back. The 2016
version just isn’t going to cut it. If he could improve his changeup and
throw that effectively, he could be even better than he was in 2015.

Cole在2017年要進步，首先得把他2015的滑球找回來。如果他的變速球變強，而且有效
使用，他甚至有可能比2015更為優異。

Depth Charts, a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections, has him
projected at 31 games, a 3.57 ERA, 8.26 K/9, and a 2.38 BB/9. I think Gerrit
is capable of at least this. As long as he gets his slider back he should be
around a 3.00 ERA pitcher and even if he doesn’t, I think he is at worst a
3.50 ERA pitcher.

基於ZiPS和Steamer的預測，Cole今年會投31場比賽，3.57 ERA，8.26 K/9和2.38 BB/9。
我認為以Cole的能力這只是低標。如果找得回他的滑球，他的ERA應該會在3附近，就算找
不回來，我認為他還是個防禦率3.5的投手。

Gerrit will never be the ace that Pirates fans want without his slider. The
high 90s heat with a meh slider just makes him a rich mans Nathan Eovaldi. I
am optimistic that good health and Ray Searage can help Gerrit and get his
slider back and become a dominant pitcher again in 2017.

沒有好的滑球，Cole就不會是海盜球迷期待的那個王牌。火球不管再怎麼快，如果滑球很
鳥，那就頂多只是富人版的Eovaldi。2017年有健康的身體，還有投手教練Searage幫忙
找回滑球，我對於Cole再度制霸，感到很樂觀。

--
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推 a679nn: 推
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
※ 轉錄者: kelpiejo (123.192.26.154), 04/15/2017 01:43:03
推 wahaha5678: FB有選他,推
推 andy880036s: 翻譯得好!推
推 KISSFORMISS: 前面兩場還是投得不好QQ
推 e44444: 推
推 microSD: Eovaldi 拼錯囉~
→ yankees733: 今天勝投
→ loveAJB: 推 翻譯～
→ loveAJB: 希望今年輪值都很健康…
→ loveAJB: 去年太慘了
→ kelpiejo: 謝謝糾正，今天一翻就QS+W，以後FB要撿FA之前都來翻譯
※ 編輯: kelpiejo (223.137.13.170), 04/15/2017 16:03:20