Re: [閒聊] Swanson算是成功的狀元嗎?

[rainmangay (Rainman)]

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
:                  PA    HR  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS+  WAR
: Dansby Swanson   1697  40 .246 .317 .390   85   4.0
: Swanson當年被魯蛇第一指名選進 不久後被交易到勇士
: 被當作是未來勇士基石而早早就升上大聯盟
: 不過到目前為止 累積了三個完整球季的成績只能說是普普通通
: 算是比雜魚板凳好一些但低於平均的表現
: 以狀元的標準來看 這樣的成績算及格嗎?
: 還是當初太早升被rush到了?

https://reurl.cc/ZnOgNV
用這篇文章回應一下，算是稍微幫天鵝哥平反一下。
稍微簡述一下內容，
重點就是告訴你為什麼認為他有很大的進步而且打出身價，裡面用一種衡量方式，wOBA，
來衡量，這個指標算是衡量這顆球打出去成為全壘打或安打的期望值，算是衡量擊
球技巧跟力量的指標。
Swanson連續幾年都一直在進步，而且文章寫的時候的2019超越了Harper, Goldschmidt,
Hoskins, 是Bellinger之外進步最多的。
自己認為：一個狀元除了要打得好，以棒球這樣長期培養的運動型態，能在大聯盟等級持
續一直成長也是球員的價值所在吧？
底下附上最主要的論述段落：
Swanson is ...

Striking out less: 20.4 percent, down from 22.9 percent

Walking more: 9.3 percent, up from 8.3 percent

Hitting harder: 46 percent, up from 34 percent

Hitting fewer grounders: 39 percent, down from 44 percent

More importantly, when he hits the ball in the air (flies and liners), he's hi
tting it harder. In 2017-18, his hard-hit rate on balls in the air was just 40
 percent. This year, it's up to 57 percent. It's where damage is found.

Those are all good things. But how do you combine them into one number?

The way we get to that is through Expected Weighted On-Base Average, which acc
ounts for quality of contact as well as amount of contact, in an attempt to re
move the effects of park and defense. (For example, when Swanson crushed a bal
l at 103.2 MPH and a 30 degree launch angle in the third inning on Sunday, we
give him credit for the fact that such a ball is a hit 80 percent of the time
and a homer 74 percent of the time, not that Ketel Marte tracked it down for a
n out in the deepest part of Chase Field.)

In 2017, Swanson's expected wOBA was .297, or in the 10th percentile. In '18,
it was .278, or in the sixth percentile. (The Major League average in '17-18 w
as .320.) So far in '19, Swanson is up to .373 -- better than Bryce Harper, Pa
ul Goldschmidt, or Rhys Hoskins -- and that jump of nearly 100 points puts him
 up at the top of the "most improved" list, right behind Bellinger.

Biggest improvements in Expected wOBA, 2018-19, Min. 100 PA each season

+.177 -- Cody Bellinger, LAD

+.095 -- Dansby Swanson, ATL (from .278 to .373)

+.088 -- Hunter Dozier, KC

+.087 -- George Springer, HOU

+.083 -- Josh Bell, PIT

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 110.28.170.118 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1568009619.A.3D3.html
※ 編輯: rainmangay (110.28.170.118 臺灣), 09/09/2019 14:14:36
噓 jeff1013: 他今年是有進步啦 但拿這篇這數據來講也太怪
→ jeff1013: 這篇到現在都多久了
→ jeff1013: Swanson現在本季wOBA也降到.323了
推 littlebonnie: abc一定看得懂這個 單純只是蛇蛇最近很猛 不知道看
→ littlebonnie: 了哪個新聞 發廢文的動力增加了而已吧
推 turkeyma: Swanson 在最熱的時候(對費城雙響砲)扭到腰  休息幾天
→ turkeyma: 勉強回來就冷回去了 這是上半季末的事
→ turkeyma: 下半季打了10場對KC傷到腳踝  又被隊醫錯誤評估傷勢
→ turkeyma: 結果傷停了一整個月
→ turkeyma: 因為勇士急著需要他的手套，所以他復健賽不算太完整
→ turkeyma: 回來之後的揮棒彷彿又回到他2017-2018 年的狀態了
→ turkeyma: 以上半季來講他進步很大  以傷停後回來這些場次來看
→ turkeyma: 好像那些進步又縮回去了
→ turkeyma: 不過他今年運氣一直很不好 babip 很低是真的
→ jeff1013: 他的babip哪有特別低
→ jeff1013: 跟他自己前兩年的Babip幾乎一樣好嗎= =
推 turkeyma: 跟平均.300 比就是偏低啊... 每天看球都可以看到他常常
→ turkeyma: 強勁的line drive被截殺 或 強襲滾地球被守下來
推 sarserror: 他上半季擊球數據很不錯 Babip低就是運氣差啊
推 aikotoba: 棒球是結果論 沒打出去沒打穿就是一個出局 管你擊球初速
→ JustinIdiot: 打者的BABIP不會修正回平均…
→ JustinIdiot: 投手的比較可能 我是說聯盟平均
→ sdiaa: 平飛被截殺強襲滾地球被守下來 一堆被佈陣的都這樣啊~
→ sarserror: 你不管可以乖乖看熱鬧
推 Rodriguez: 捲毛本季根本是地獄倒楣鬼...天天看勇士比賽的都知道
→ Rodriguez: 比起前兩年.進步很巨大
推 bravefan: 各數據的解釋度可以討論 但直接說棒球是結果論 那吃藥也
→ bravefan: 不用打星號了 這版上多數討論也可廢了 就貼貼戰績表吧
→ Costco5566: 就是葛草包還想平反阿
→ Jo: 讓我重選，我會選Alex Bregman啦
推 turkeyma: Dansby Swanson has certainly struggled since coming
→ turkeyma:  back, but he's also running into some terrible luck
→ turkeyma:  when he puts the ball in play. His hard-hit percent
→ turkeyma: age on FanGraphs is really high at 43.3 and he has a
→ turkeyma:  BABIP of .233 since returning.
→ turkeyma: 提供上述訊息供大家參考
推 turkeyma: 今年成長被受傷打斷了 明年再重新觀察他的狀況來評斷吧
→ turkeyma: 不過說起來他也連續兩年有缺席一整個月的傷了....