What Hammy to the Angels Means for the M's

[Guillen ()]

我覺得是許多篇護航文中，較為持平的一篇。文章又短又簡單，大家參考參考。

http://sodomojo.com/2012/12/13/what-hamilton-to-the-angels-means-for-the-ms/

JJ Keller
I am sure all of you heard the news about Josh Hamilton agreeing to a 5 year,
$125 million contract with the AL West rival Angels. This is bad news for not
only the Hamilton-or-busters, but really for every Mariner fan. Even if you
did not find Hamilton enticing, you cannot like seeing him sign with a rival,
especially one who was already a very good team.

Hamilton轉戰天使是個壞消息，不僅是對抱持著『給我漢米其餘免談』立場的球迷而言，
基本上對所有水手球迷都是，天使現在如虎添翼。

I, personally, was somewhere in the middle. I was not all in on Josh as some
were, but I did like him for the right price. I might have even given him the
deal that LA did, but I have a feeling we would have had to beat that offer
by quite a bit. Playing for an 89 win team with the likes of Albert Pujols
and Mike Trout is a little more attractive than coming to a young team with a
lot of question marks in a pitchers park.

我應該算是『中間選民』，沒那麼愛他但是能夠用好價格得到他也很棒，甚至我願意開
給他天使開出的價碼，但天使是高富帥，我們要得到他得多出一點才行。

Now many of you may be thinking the Ms absolutely need to sign Nick Swisher
or someone comparable so we can try to match what the Angels did, and I
understand where you are coming from. But I strongly disagree.

現在許多球迷開始喊正妹Swisher非簽不可，但我不那麼想。

In my opinion, the Mariners have two options at this point.

They can either sit tight and maybe make a few smaller additions such as
Jason Kubel or Mike Morse to at least stay relevant, but not go after a big
time free agent, or

They can go all out and bring in 3-4 big time players like Swisher, Justin
Upton, Michael Bourn and a pitcher.

在我看來水手現在有兩個方向可以做：

1) 不追FA，做一些例如 Kubel 或是 Morse 鳳還巢這類的小型補強。

2) 梭哈買下Swisher + Upton + Bourn + 一名投手。

Let me explain what some people may think of as crazy.

Option one makes sense because they aren’t going to compete in this
division, even if they bring in one big name bat like many hoped for. 3.5 –
 4 WAR Nick Swisher does not get us anywhere but 3rd place at best. He
probably never would have instantly brought the Ms to contention, but now
there is almost no chance. No one or two players are going to be able to
catch the Angels, at least for the next few years.

That’s why it makes sense to stay put for now, and reassess next year or the
year after. Then we can bring in a bat that will still be around when the
Angels are old and the Ms have a chance to win. Bringing in Swisher on a 4-5
year deal when they won’t compete until the last two years of the deal, when
Swisher is most likely no more than an average player, does not help.
Wait it out, then make your big splash in 2014 or 2015.

水手根本就還沒有什麼競爭力，補一個WAR 3.5-4 的正妹，頂多只能把我們拉到第三名
，只補一兩個好手，至少在未來幾年都沒辦法拉近我們跟天使的差距。

所以繼續觀望的策略就變得有點道理了，晚點再補進一個可以長留到天使老去水兵奮起時
的棒子。給正妹4-5 年約，然後等到水手有競爭力時，他已經變成一個普通人了，這對水
手毫無幫助。

等待，然後在14'或15'好好灑錢。

As for option two, it is the only chance the Ms have at competing in the next
year or two. They are way behind the Angels now, and it would take multiple
top players to stay with them. I’m talking signing Swisher, Bourn and Edwin
Jackson, no matter what it takes. Trading for Upton no matter what it takes.
Doing whatever is needed to get the players that will keep you in the hunt.
Unfortunately, I think option one is much more likely for this team.

第二方案就是一步登天，不計一切代價拿到好幾個好球員。但不幸的是，第一方案比較有
可能發生。

Ownership has not shown a huge desire to win, and I don’t expect that to
change.

這句我就不翻了，高層甲賽。

I see Jack trading for a 2nd or 3rd tier guy like Mike Morse or Jason
Kubel, and waiting the rest out. As hard as it is to admit, that may be the
best option for this current Mariner team.

雖然很不想承認，但補進幾個次級品應該是目前最好的選擇。

-----

個人意見：高層爛成這樣，什麼都喊假的，2014也不用想砸錢補強。
          很愛說天使之後會變老人戰隊，但人家就是願意花錢，漢
          米普神老到不行時還是願意花50M 把這兩隻按在板凳上，
          然後再花50M簽兩隻巨星，根本就沒有什麼『對水手來說
          可以一較高下的時機』，人家會一直保持在追不上的狀態。

          任天堂快把球隊賣一賣吧，沒錢花就只能玩沙。

          JZ問題也很大，如果老闆不給錢，那就認真一點走光芒模式
          啊，每個層級的農場都顧好（現在除了三小強還有富蘭克林
          ，其實根本就很荒蕪），好好找尋5-8M年薪的功能性球員，
          一開始可以去談LaRoche或是認真交易Morse，要補外野Ross
          也不錯啊，結果跑去跟豪門湊熱鬧純粹浪費時間。

          結果現在我們得到些什麼？Bay，還有Boesch與Ibanez的乳摸
          ，幹這些連次級品都稱不上好嗎？

          省錢有省錢的玩法，可能一百年都拿不到冠軍，但是還是有機
          會進季後賽啊，現在能摸個邊拿個外卡二大家就爽死了，總比
          現在這種沒盼望的鳥樣還要好吧？

          在我看來，水手今年真正的補強是補進休士頓太空人。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 71.227.175.76
推 okinawa8:rumor看看就好, Boesch除非真的換了否則我只覺得是笑話
→ okinawa8:我不認為JZ目前的做法有太大問題  只是成績沒出來就是
→ okinawa8:這幾年我感覺造成水兵積弱不振的原因其一是一堆新秀在MLB
→ okinawa8:卡關 這一點JZ其實也滿無辜的..AAA>MLB會發生什麼事情根
→ okinawa8:本天知道  其二是JZ在砂礫撈珍珠這點上做得不夠多  這幾
→ okinawa8:年來真的有補強到的便宜品大概就不拉娘, 阿斯馬, Guti(後
→ okinawa8:來壞了)和Jaso之類的 但是不管質或量都不夠...
推 okinawa8:和花不花錢沒什麼大關係...就像國民也不是靠Werth
→ okinawa8:再有耐心看一年吧 要棒子不是也搞來耶穌了嗎 他的棒子在
→ okinawa8:小聯盟還不夠大根嗎  他也才23歲
→ okinawa8:最後我還是認為水手離有競爭力沒那麼遠  就像去年第一個
→ okinawa8:月Smoak扛下打線的時候戰績就起來了  就像教士打線只靠A-
→ okinawa8:Gon還是能打一樣  打線只要有一個人出來扛得住水手就會很
→ okinawa8:不一樣
推 blackdevil:有一個打出來就能扛住不就更該追Hamilton?
→ blackdevil:話說我覺得能在這分區從四跳到三就是很大的進步....
推 hunterqiji:水手補進太空人﹐但美西其他對手也在補進啊...
→ hunterqiji:條子猴子綠帽三個隊拼不過﹐外卡也是沒戲
推 Pennyjr:我們明年最大的進步就是從分區墊底進步到分區倒數第二
→ Guillen:樓上說的就是我的意思。
→ Guillen:看到一則消息，水手開出的合約是4/100加連第5、6年option
→ Guillen:如果是真的話，那代表老闆不小氣跟JZ沒有過於謹慎。
推 shoting:Phillies Claim Mauricio Robles
→ shoting:結果還是沒養起來
→ skalt:老揮啊跟洋基簽了13M/2year，要2015才能回來退休了(?)
推 cd12631:我也有看到10M/4y那則消息 如果那是真的 我覺得還比較釋懷
→ cd12631:比較怕的就是完全是對外喊一喊 喊爽的
推 cd12631:Dicky交易案進行中 條子到底會不會崩潰亂換哩
推 l60km:會不會漢米自己不太想來？
推 pjharper:是安慰球迷的假消息嗎？XD
推 cd12631:如果是100/4 那合約內容和天使差沒多少 選天使也滿合理
→ lovejeely:有人要對Trumbo下手了，趁亂衝一把吧
→ lovejeely:我是覺得天使應該不會這麼腦殘換掉Trumbo
→ lovejeely:不過既然有傳言，問一問也不用錢，混水摸魚探探風向XD
→ larksong:水手有籌碼去換 Trumbo嗎 ? 這位能換到的話隊打線有幫助.
推 Purekim:同區肯定被打槍吧
推 Nocturnecat:就像玩LOL一樣~從前期的裝就是高你一階,一路壓到後期
→ Nocturnecat:還沒等到一較高下的機會出現的時候都不知道GG幾年了..