作者qazpoi753 (草間雨)
站內Math
標題[機統] 應該是條件機率的問題
時間Mon Feb 14 23:31:25 2011
現在確定有65%的把握確定這個嫌犯有犯案。在審辦的過程中,一個證人出面指證
嫌犯有85%的機會是左撇子。假設有23%的人口數都是左撇子,而嫌犯也是左撇子
請問在獲得證人的資訊後,嫌犯犯案的機率變成多少?
因為怕自己翻譯的不對,所以題目原文也貼上來
A judge is 65% sure that a suspect has committed a crime. During the course of
the trial a witness convinces the judge that there is an 85% chance that the
criminal is left-handed. If 23% of the population is left-handed and the
suspect is also left-handed, with this new information, how certain should
the judge be of the guilt of the suspect?
請各位板友幫我解決這個問題
謝謝
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