http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-43-49/The-High-Grade-Sleepers.html
NBA training camps are still a few weeks away, but rosters around the league
are gradually taking shape. Once David Lee, Allen Iverson and Ramon Sessions
have jobs, we'll be ready to go.
The favorites in each conference are easy to spot -- they bear a striking
resemblance to the teams that were playing on Memorial Day weekend. But which
teams are lurking beneath the surface, ready to assume the role of improbable
contender?
If they can avoid the injury bug, and the chemistry works just right, here
are three teams who could emerge as success stories come spring:
It's easy to forget just how dominant the Dallas Mavericks were when they
took the floor against the eighth-seeded Warriors on a Sunday evening in
April 2007. This was the last game of the postseason's opening weekend, a
perfunctory item of business for the Mavs en route to a conference finals
matchup against the Suns or the Spurs.
Dallas was one year removed from an NBA Finals appearance, and had just piled
up 67 wins in the regular season. Only five teams in NBA history had recorded
more Ws in a single season. Dirk Nowitzki was the presumptive MVP (and would
go on to win the award).
The Mavs' epic collapse in that first-round series against the Warriors has
been well-documented, and over the next two seasons, Dallas would descend
from their perch into the Western Conference's upper-middle class.
What's interesting about that falloff is how many of the elements of that
Mavs team remain intact today -- to say nothing of the quality pieces that
have been added since. 67 wins isn't ancient history; we're talking two
seasons ago.
Dirk Nowitzki, at 31, is the same age as Kobe Bryant. While Nowitzki is
unlikely to reproduce his 2006-07 exploits, he remains one of the league's
best players. Jason Terry has been a model of consistency for Dallas and had
arguably the most efficient season of his career as the Mavs' super sub in
2008-09. Josh Howard is only 29. When healthy, he's still one of the more
flexible swingmen in the game and a lockdown defender. In 2006-07, J.J. Barea
logged fewer than 200 minutes, but he's become a spark plug for the Mavs'
quality second unit ever since.
With Jason Kidd settling nicely into the role of veteran facilitator (and
surprisingly efficient shooter), the franchise doubled down on the bet that
their solid core could maximize what's left of Dirk Nowitzki's prime. They
landed Shawn Marion.
Like Howard, Marion is versatile, freakish, and mercurial. Defensively, he
can stay in front of speedy point guards, bother face-up power forwards,
chase spot-up shooters, and clean up on the boards. Offensively, Marion's
downward trajectory the past season and a half began the moment he left
Phoenix. Coincidence -- or evidence that his talents demand the care of a
veteran, pass-first point guard?
When you consider those assets, then throw in sensible additions like Drew
Gooden and Kris Humphries to bolster Erick Dampier on the block, defensive
stopper Quinton Ross, and a pair of intriguing rookies, and the Mavs appear
... stacked.
There is no shortage of nightmarish scenarios by which Dallas' gamble can
implode. Nowitzki, Kidd, Marion, Terry, and Dampier are all on the wrong side
of 30. Howard is accustomed to missing about 15 games a year, and being less
than 100 percent for long stretches. Dallas' best offensive lineup
(Kidd-Terry-Howard-Marion-Nowitzki) won't give them much interior defense,
and the loss of Brandon Bass makes them a less energetic bunch.
But with Kidd at the point, and a roster of flexible guys who can each serve
multiple functions on the floor, Dallas has the potential to develop into a
grizzled, selfless squad with the kind of mental edge that just might have
been the missing ingredient 28 months ago.
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