[外電] How Mavs match up with potential playo

[DM24Tim (carpe diem)]

How Mavs match up with potential playoff foes

上半季結束，ESPN Dallas對小牛可能在季後賽第一輪碰上的對手做了分析


The Mavericks head into the All-Star break as one of the NBA’s hottest
teams, winning six of their last seven games, a run punctuated by beating the
big, bad Indiana Pacers in a brawl.

小牛在明星賽前的最後一場比賽漂亮的擊敗東區龍頭溜馬，最近七戰贏了六場。


As Dirk Nowitzki heads to New Orleans and his teammates scatter to sunny
vacation destinations, the Mavs sit in sixth place in the Western Conference
standings. That’s a far cry from being six games under .500 at the All-Star
break a year ago.

Dirk將前往紐澳良參加明星賽，而其他隊員們獲得短暫的休息。上半季打完小牛
暫列西區第六，比起去年低於五成勝率六場比賽，有很大的進步。


The Mavs can afford to take nothing for granted, but the math is certainly in
their favor when it comes to making the playoffs. The Hollinger Playoff Odds,
a statistical formula created by Memphis vice president of basketball
operations John Hollinger during his days as an ESPN analyst, put the Mavs’
 chances at 79.1 percent. (Hollinger’s ninth-place Grizzlies are at 39.1
percent.)

儘管小牛進季後賽的機率不低，但他們不能把這視為理所當然。Hollinger的季
後賽機率公式中，小牛的晉級機率是79.1%，目前西區第九的灰熊是39.1%。


If the playoffs started tomorrow, the Mavs would be matched up with their
Interstate 45 rival, the Houston Rockets. That sounds like a lot of fun,
pairing two high-scoring teams with the potential for some juicy off-court
banter between Mark Cuban and Dwight Howard, last summer’s heartbreaker.

如果季後賽明天開打，小牛就要對上同在德州的火箭，兩隊的進攻火力讓比賽很
好看，而Cuban跟DH之間的嘴砲也不會遜色。


But the playoff pairings could shift on a daily basis, with Houston one of
three teams who are 5 ½ games back from the first-place Oklahoma City
Thunder and the Mavs leading a pack of three teams within a half-game of each
other at the bottom of the playoff bracket. It’s a long shot that the Mavs
can climb any higher than sixth in the standings, so let’s look at how they
might match up in a playoff series with each of the teams above them.

不過這樣的順位每天都會變，火箭與快艇、拓荒者都距離龍頭雷霆五場半，後面
跟著的是小牛、太陽與勇士。西區分成三個區塊，小牛可能就在六到八名打轉，
這也代表可能遇上前五的任何一個對手，來回顧一下目前為止對上這幾隊的結果。


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
The Thunder have the league’s best record despite perennial All-Star point
guard Russell Westbrook missing much of the season due to knee surgeries.
Kevin Durant is the clear-cut MVP leader, which is remarkable considering
that LeBron James is still in his prime. Oklahoma City has won 12 of 13
meetings with Dallas since the Mavs eliminated the Thunder in the 2011 West
finals. Needless to say, the Mavs would much prefer to avoid being the eighth
seed.
Season series: Thunder, 1-0
Mavs’ shot: A Samuel Dalembert 80-footer

KD的MVP賽季讓雷霆儘管缺了Westbrook，依舊獨走西區，甚至壓過LBJ的鋒芒，
在小牛奪冠那年淘汰雷霆後，雷霆對小牛的13場比賽贏了12場，不用多說，小牛
勢必要避開第一輪就碰上雷霆。

本季對戰成績： 雷霆 1-0 小牛
小牛在季後賽能贏的機率：就像Dalembert從80呎外的跳投。


SAN ANTONIO SPURS
The Spurs’ winning streak over the Mavs stands at seven games. The average
margin of victory during that streak is 16.9 points. Gregg Popovich is
probably the only coach in the West who would have an edge over Rick
Carlisle. Tony Parker is a matchup nightmare for the Mavs’ guards. Same goes
for Tim Duncan inside. And the Spurs have several role players who have come
up big against Dallas.
Season series: Spurs, 2-0
Mavs’ shot: A contested Shawn Marion halfcourt heave

馬刺也拿到對小牛的七連勝，而且平均能贏16.9分。在西區的教練中，Popovich
應該是唯一勝過Carlisle的。Parker會是小牛後場的惡夢，Duncan則是小牛禁區
的大麻煩，而且馬刺的功能性球員總能在對小牛時發揮。

本季對戰成績：馬刺 2-0 小牛
小牛在季後賽能贏的機率：就像Marion在半場有人守的情況下的拋射。


HOUSTON ROCKETS
How about first to 120 wins each game? James Harden and Monta Ellis can’t
guard each other. The Mavs have no answer for Howard. Nor do the Rockets for
Nowitzki. The regular-season series is already over and it ended up even –
 not just in wins, but in points. This could be a really fun series between
teams that have enough bad blood (at least in the front offices) to make for
a heck of a Lone Star State rivalry.
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Mavs’ shot: A Dirk one-legged fadeaway with Howard in his face

對上火箭時，兩隊得120分似乎才是勝利的保證，Harden跟Ellis基本上是互爆，
但小牛對DH無解，而火箭對Dirk也無解。兩隊的季賽對決已經結束，各取兩勝，
而且得失分完全相同。兩隊如果在季後賽遇上了，絕對會打的血流成河，會成為
德州大戰歷史留名的一章。

本季對戰成績：火箭 2-2 小牛
小牛在季後賽能贏的機率：就像Dirk在Howard防守的狀態下的單腳後仰跳投。


LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
The Clippers pulled off a couple of jaw-dropping comebacks over Dallas with
Mavs castoff Darren Collison playing point guard. That doesn’t exactly
inspire confidence if a healthy Chris Paul is running the show for Lob City
and setting up athletic freaks Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. Clippers
small forward Matt Barnes, who has faced the Mavs in memorable playoff series
with the Warriors and Lakers, used to get under Dallas’ skin as much as
anybody. That dishonor might go to Griffin now.
Season series: Clippers, 2-0
Mavs’ shot: An off-the-dribble 30-footer by Monta Ellis

快艇今年兩次在最後逆轉打敗小牛，一次還是被小牛不要的Darren Collison
打爆，小牛要是碰上健康的CP3+BG+Jordan組合，肯定會被他們的運動能力玩
死。快艇的Matt Barnes曾經在勇士與湖人時在季後賽與小牛交手，常常惹小
牛的球員不爽，而最近BG也讓小牛球員有相同的感覺。

本季對戰成績：快艇 2-0 小牛
小牛在季後賽能贏的機率：就像Monta Ellis在30呎外的騎馬射箭。


PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
The first-round matchup with the Blazers ended up being the Mavs’ toughest
challenge en route to the 2011 Finals. LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and
Wesley Matthews are the only players left from that Portland roster. Nowitzki
and Marion are the only championship pieces left on the Dallas roster. The
Mavs would have a puncher’s chance in this series because the Blazers aren’
t any better than Dallas defensively. In fact, Portland is the only team that
would make the playoffs at this point that ranks lower than the Mavs in
defensive rating.
Season series: Tied, 1-1
Mavs’ shot: A Vince Carter 3-pointer

2011年小牛的奪冠之旅中，第一輪碰上拓荒者或許是小牛最頭大的對手。AGG、
Batum、Matthews是從當年的拓荒者到現在還在隊上的成員，而小牛在奪冠之後
也只留下Dirk跟Marion。小牛會有機會與拓荒者一搏，因為兩隊的防守都很糟，
事實上，拓荒者是目前西區前八當中，唯一在防守表現比小牛還差的球隊。

http://0rz.tw/OXeeZ


網頁還有投票  大家可以投最想看小牛跟誰打

我是覺得作者有點太小看拓荒者了  上個月還被巴假的
倒是對火箭是真的最有機會  比喻的也蠻好的  Howard守Dirk  各有機會
而對上雷霆 馬刺 快艇  真的是很難打啊...

總之  目前小牛應該頂多就6~8了  除非上面有球隊掉下來
要打誰還很難說  像現在這樣排名剛好打火箭應該是不太可能XD
希望大家在休息之後的下半季繼續加油啦~~
目前的勝率大概能拿到48勝  希望能以50勝為目標!!

Let's Go Mavs!!

--
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◆ From: 111.248.178.240
※ 編輯: DM24Tim         來自: 111.248.178.240      (02/14 17:33)
推 accjm2440   :加油!
推 bugchen     :Let's Go Mavs!!
推 Kay731      :我想看小牛首輪把火箭掃出局
推 bibby0414   :推樓上,那個比喻Dirk會吧草莓射爆吧
推 feafow5221  :八十呎投籃超好笑的比喻
推 Ellis0919   :Let's Go Mavs!!!!!!!!!
推 ripmelo     :小牛火箭一定是很精彩的飆分戰
推 jardon      :如果想打阿拓那就只能期望他們打上去 西南區是上不去
→ jardon      :了 緊繃就是拿到西區第五 其實都沒有主場優勢
→ jardon      :5-8名其實相差不大 但要挑第一輪對手 那就阿拓和火箭
推 chrisyanglom:打火箭要看到一堆酸酸的討論有點煩
推 Skycrane    :打爆火箭+1，就像打爆11的湖人一樣
推 MadokaSama  :感覺都不好打呀w  話說勝率比喻的滿有趣的xD
推 osra        :草莓近況不差, 遇到了...也算硬仗@@
推 febulous2011:推~對拓荒者是VC三分球欸xD
推 febulous2011:最近big sam的表現延續下去感覺會比文章說的更有希
→ febulous2011:望，香妹+big sam的防線應該只有碰到KD真的完全無解
推 dmdjjj      :其實火箭小牛再怎麼血流成河也沒有06年牛馬大戰來得
→ dmdjjj      :刺激
推 nagisanoff  :第七戰尤其刺激
→ nagisanoff  :Dirk吃包溫再加上Manu腦衝犯規
推 thomas52    :希望別碰到雷霆啊...KD打小牛很順手
推 yugowolf    :那年殺到第7戰以為要輸了 想不到司機and1 進延長賽
→ yugowolf    :真的是打到最後一刻才分勝負 再下一輪對太陽也滿感人
→ yugowolf    :因為那也是Nash在太陽等好久的機會
推 lineage01000:那年就只有總冠軍賽毀了一切 我哥國王迷我小牛迷
→ lineage01000:都不再相信裁判了
→ popstarkirby:小牛還好...至少最後有冠軍..國王就...就算過了西冠
→ popstarkirby:也難保會奪冠呀....
→ popstarkirby:就算講那時西強東弱，跟小牛狀態還是有差
推 arno162000  :過了西冠 對手是籃網欸XDD
→ popstarkirby:假設會在冠軍賽有好表現，跟已經在冠軍賽...本質上
→ popstarkirby:是有差的..