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Heat-Celtics Preview
The NBA Playoffs are here. No longer will the best athletes in the world take
plays off and turn it on when they want to. Every possession matters now and
intensity is at an all time high. It’s win or go home. Let’s break down
this intriguing Celtics-Heat match-up.
Point Guard
Carlos Arroyo has proven to be a highly effective lead guard for Miami after
taking over mid-season. He knows how to control the pace of a game and when
to pick his spots.
He has a brutal first round matchup with Rajon Rondo, arguably the quickest
guard in the league. Look for Mario Chalmers to see plenty of minutes as he
is more gifted athletically giving him a better chance at defending Rondo.
Don’t be surpised to see Wade at point guard if Arroyo really struggles
defensively.
Edge: Boston
Shooting Guard
Dwyane Wade will by far be the best player on the court in this series. Wade
is more important to his team than any other player in the league. Ray Allen
has been killing it from three in April (47% 3FG) and when he’s on the
Celtics are dangerous.
When Allen’s off they often don’t get the job done (30% 3FG in losses).
Allen is going to have his hands full with Flash and look for reserve Tony
Allen to get big minutes attempting to defend Wade.
Edge: Miami
Small Forward
Paul Pierce has been sensational this year shooting a career high 41.4 % from
three. He is still Boston’s go-to-guy in crunch time and ultimately the
leader of this team. Quentin Richardson has been deadly from three this
season as well (40 %), but it’s his defense that has improved drastically.
Pierce is still a force with so many ways he can hurt you. Dorell Wright will
also see some minutes and his versatile ability to score should get him some
quality minutes.
Edge: Boston
Power Forward
It’s by far the most interesting matchup. Miami’s two-headed dog of Michael
Beasley and Udonis Haslem going up against future hall-of-famer Kevin
Garnett. Beasley will have to provide consistent offense to help alleviate
the pressure off Wade. If he’s off, which is the case half the time, he’ll
be superglued to the bench. Rasheed Wallace has been horrific this year and
the Heat hope he gets big minutes.
Neutralizing Garnett is going to be critical and that’s why Haslem will get
a majority of the minutes here. He is the heart and soul of this team and he
will set the tone with his overwhelming physicality. The Haslem/Garnett
battle is going to get ugly.
Edge: Even
Center
Kendrick Perkins was second in the league this year behind Dwight Howard in
field goal percentage (60%) so it will important to keep him out of the
paint. Jermaine O’Neal has had on and off injuries but with his current time
off should be close to 100%.
O’Neal’s offense is important in keeping the defense honest. When he’s
hitting that 15-footer the Heat are a different team. This one’s a wash.
Edge: Even
Bench
Playoff rotations figure to have no more than four guys typically. For Miami
that means Haslem, Wright, Joel Anthony, and Chalmers. For Boston they will
likely throw out a group that includes Wallace, Glen Davis, Allen, and then
maybe Nate Robinson.
Boston’s bench and maybe chance of surviving will be based on a large part
on which Rasheed Wallace comes out to play. “Fat suit Sheed” who rarely
crosses either foul line or “Big shot Sheed”? Miami has the best player off
the bench in Haslem, who is basically a sixth starter.
The Heat will lose when…Dwyane Wade is smothered by that Boston defense and
his teammates are not knocking down shots. He then would press the issue even
more out of frustration, hurting his team
Boston will lose when…Rondo loses focus and doesn’t play in attack mode. He
defers to the “big three” too much when he is easily their most explosive
player. Rasheed Wallace shoots them out of the playoffs.
When Miami has the ball…Obviously Wade is the focal point. Boston is going
to pack the lane tight to keep him as far from the basket as possible.
Richardson, Beasley, and Wright have got to hit their open shots from the
perimeter to open up the floor for Wade. If Wade isn’t hitting from outside
(18-20 feet) Miami could be in trouble because Boston doesn’t give up much
in the paint.
When Boston has the ball…Boston is certainly a half court team that revolves
heavily on Pierce and Rondo creating looks for Garnett and Allen. Look for
Rondo to push the ball in certain spots to keep Miami off balanced. Rondo’s
aggressiveness might be the key to Boston winning. He owns this matchup, but
will he step up into the spotlight?
Miami has been hot lately winning 12 of 13 entering the playoffs. Boston has
been ice cold winning a mere 4 games out of their last 13.
Boston is banged up as Garnett and Pierce have had nagging injuries all
season. If Wade smells blood (sees weakness in Boston’s fragility), he will
go in for the kill early and take over every game of this series.
I’m thinking that the D-Wade from 06′ makes his glorious return. If that
happens Boston will have no prayer. Maybe Wade will even bring back his
unstoppable 15-foot bank shot. Remember that? Why did it ever go? That thing
was lethal.
Look for Miami to steal one of the first two in Boston and take both games at
home. By the time Boston gets their act together it will be too late.
Wade-Lebron here we come.
Prediction: Heat in 6
Boston Celtics(50-32) vs. Miami Heat(47-35)
105.4 Off.Eff 104.5
101.1 Def.Eff 100.9
93.8 Pace 91.9
99.2 PPG 96.5
95.6 Opp.PPG 94.2
38.6 RPG 41.8
40.1 Opp.RPG 40.7
23.5 APG 18.9
19.3 Opp.APG 18.8
.483 FG% .458
.451 Opp FG% .439
.348 3PT% .346
.342 Opp 3PT% .342
.746 FT% .755
http://0rz.tw/7jAPm
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※ 編輯: UdonisHaslem 來自: 114.45.67.249 (04/17 21:35)