推 Rubymiddle:推推~~ 11/20 19:46
Bosh因隨著上場時間與投籃次數的下降，使得其表面上的數據有所下滑，
但是其得分效益卻是上升，他對球隊的貢獻度並沒有下降，失誤率甚至降至生涯最低。
Bosh的打法也與在多倫多時相差無幾，唯一詬病的就是其籃板掌控能力的下降。
總之，Bosh並不是大問題，他還是個能讓球隊贏球關鍵的角色，並隨著球季進展會更好。
Keeping Score: Bosh Is Not the Problem in Miami
By JUSTIN KUBATKO http://goo.gl/4TXWX
The season is only three weeks old, but the compelling chemistry experiment
known as the Miami Heat is struggling, at least in the eyes of some
observers. Miami’s 7-4 record puts it third in the Southeast Division, and
the knee-jerk reaction by many has been to look for someone to blame. That
person, based on numerous critical columns in the past week, is apparently
Chris Bosh. But is Bosh really failing to live up to expectations? And is the
Heat really struggling?
Those who expected Bosh to continue to put up 20 points and 10 rebounds per
game with the Heat did not properly consider the effect that reduced
opportunities would have on his statistics. With the Raptors, Bosh averaged
37.0 minutes and 17.7 scoring attempts per game, but with the Heat those
figures are 32.1 and 13.9, respectively.
Coming into this season, a reasonable prediction for Bosh’s scoring
efficiency would have been 1.14 points per scoring attempt, which was his
average in Toronto. Given his current rate of 13.9 scoring attempts per game,
that works out to a scoring average of 15.8 points per game. Bosh is actually
averaging 16.4 points per game this season, more than a half point per game
above what we might have expected given his reduction in scoring
opportunities.
Bosh has been criticized for not being an offensive presence in the post for
the Heat, but a look at his shot chart indicates that he never was that type
of player:
Chris Bosh : shooting range
0-6feet 7-14feet 15to3-point 3-point&out
Toronto 41% 23% 34% 2%
Miami 41% 19% 38% 2%
Bosh’s shot distribution in Miami is very similar to his shot distribution
in Toronto, with a majority of his attempts coming on mid- to long-range jump
shots. Those who expected Bosh to come to Miami and take 75 percent of his
shots from close range (as Dwight Howard does) simply did not look at his
history in Toronto.
Although no one seems to have noticed, Bosh has shown a remarkable ability to
avoid turnovers so far with the Heat. Bosh turned the ball over on
approximately 11.1 percent of his plays with Toronto, a solid but
unremarkable figure. But this season his turnover rate has plummeted to 4.4
percent, a figure that, if it stands, would be one of the lowest in N.B.A.
history.
If Bosh has had any weakness so far, it’s his rebounding. Bosh was solid on
the boards in Toronto, nabbing approximately 14.9 percent of all available
rebounds. With the Heat, though, his rebound rate has dropped to 11.1
percent. This cannot be explained by Bosh’s reduced playing time, as rebound
rate is adjusted for a player’s time on the court. But how much has this
hurt Miami? A rough estimate is that the decrease in Bosh’s rebound rate has
a value of minus-23 points, a number that cannot be ignored. However, the
reduction in Bosh’s turnover rate (plus-13 points) and the increase in his
scoring efficiency (+6 points) all but offset the negative effect of his
rebounding.
A closer look at the numbers reveals that the shots directed toward Bosh are
misplaced. In fact, despite the four losses, an argument can be made that the
Heat is not really struggling. Through Wednesday’s victory over Phoenix,
Miami is outscoring its opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game, a
mark that over a full season would be the fifth best in N.B.A. history. Yes,
the Heat has struggled against some opponents, but that’s not entirely
surprising given the unprecedented overhaul of their roster.
On the occasions when Miami has been hitting on all cylinders the team has
been incredibly good. The bad news for the rest of the league is that those
occasions will probably become more common as the season progresses, and when
that happens, it’s a safe bet that Bosh will be one of the key reasons why.
Basketball statistics : A different look
Assist Percentage Leaders Total Rebound Pct. Leaders
for 2010-11 [1] for 2010-11 [2]
Player Tm Ast% Player Tm TRB%
Rajon Rondo BOS 53.3 Reggie Evans TOR 25.4
Chris Paul NOH 52.1 Kevin Love MIN 24.3
Steve Nash PHO 44.8 Marcus Camby POR 22.2
LeBron James MIA 43.9 Joakim Noah CHI 19.7
Deron Williams UTA 43.7 Dwight Howard ORL 19.5
Jason Kidd DAL 43.4 Ben Wallace DET 19.2
Derrick Rose CHI 43.1 Udonis Haslem MIA 19.2
Devin Harris NJN 42.7 Tim Duncan SAS 19.1
John Wall WAS 42.3 Roy Hibbert IND 18.9
R.Westbrook OKC 39 Kevin Garnett BOS 18.9
Simple Rating System Leaders Win Shares Leaders
for 2010-11 [3] for 2010-11 [4]
Team W L SRS Player Tm WS
MIA 7 4 12.1 Pau Gasol LAL 2.5
NOH 9 1 11.1 Chris Paul NOH 2.3
BOS 9 2 8.6 Paul Millsap UTA 2.3
LAL 10 2 7.6 Al Horford ATL 2.1
SA 9 1 7.2 Kobe Bryant LAL 1.8
DAL 7 3 6.7 Chris Bosh MIA 1.8
ORL 7 3 5.1 Deron Williams UTA 1.7
DEN 6 5 3.8 Paul Pierce BOS 1.7
MIL 5 6 3.5 Rudy Gay MEM 1.7
CHI 6 4 3 LeBron James MIA 1.7
POR 7 5 1.8
PHX 6 5 1.6
UTAH 8 4 1.4
ATL 8 4 0.6
IND 4 5 0.2
OKC 7 4 -0.5
HOU 3 8 -1.1
MEM 4 8 -2
GS 7 4 -2.7
CHA 4 7 -2.9
NJ 4 7 -3
NYK 4 8 -4
PHI 2 10 -4.5
TOR 3 9 -4.7
CLE 5 5 -5.5
DET 4 8 -5.6
LAC 1 11 -6.8
WAS 3 7 -8.7
SAS 3 7 -9
MIN 4 9 -9.2
[1] Assist Percentage; an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals
a player assisted while he was on the floor.
[2] Total Rebound Percentage; an estimate of the percentage of available
rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.
[3] Simple Rating System; a team rating that takes into account average point
differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points
above/below average, where zero is average.
[4] Win Shares; an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player.
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