[外電] 火靈哥看熱火-老賽

[kart (=\)]

        火靈哥的看法跟我上一篇大致雷同，但是當然解釋的更清楚


    Yep, Boston beat Miami again. So what's it all mean?
        對的，老賽又打敗熱火了，所以這代表什麼呢？

    First, the big picture. As far as statement games go, home team
    winning by three isn't exactly a fist pounding the table. Further,
     one can easily rationalize the Celtics' 3-0 mark against the Heat
     -- the wins were by eight, five and three points, and if Miami
    wins the final meeting on its home turf in March, this may seem
    like much ado about nothing.
        第一，我們要看遠些。即使這是一場下定論的比賽，
        主場小贏三分其實並不能說如何的擲地有聲。再說，老賽這三場比賽
        分別小贏8, 5, 3分，而如果熱火最後一場贏了，那好像
        也不能代表太多意義。

    I'm not buying the injury-riddled-Celtics line, either -- not when
     they knew the stakes and, as a result, played their top six
    players virtually the entire game. Any minutes from Shaquille
    O'Neal, Delonte West or Marquis Daniels would have come at the
    expense of one of their top six players or of Von Wafer, who
    scored 10 points in 14 minutes.
        接下來我也不苟同所謂老賽傷兵論。至少在他們知道這場比賽的重要性，
        而用了他們本季最重要的六人輪轉打完大部分的比賽。
        這些時間不管是大歐、West或是Daniels打，你都要想說這是會把
        這場比賽最重要的六人的時間分散掉，還包括Wafer那14分鐘內得的10分。
        所以這場比賽來看，這不是重點。

    Finally, although Boston won the game and clinched the tiebreaker,
     there remains a strong possibility that a conference finals
    meeting between these two teams would open in Miami. Monday's
    Playoff Odds project the Heat to finish with 59 wins and the
    Celtics with 58.
        最後，雖然老賽拿到了對熱火的絕對優勢，但是當季後賽相遇時，
        熱火還是有不小的可能性是從主場開打，至少就我的推算熱火還是
        最有可能拿下東區第一種子。

    With all that said, this game did not bode well for Miami in the
    playoffs. So instead of focusing on all the small stuff -- that
    Mike Miller actually took a shot, for instance, or the
    under-reported fact that Dwyane Wade absolutely torpedoed the much
     larger Glen Davis off the ball on the final play -- let's look
    back at the big picture of the three meetings between these teams
    and explain why.
        但是即使這樣，這場比賽展現出來的風貌讓我對熱火的季後賽
        堪慮。所以與其花時間討論小地方--MM其實投出了最後一擊啦，或是
        Wade其實最後一球單擋Davis的可能性犯規啦都不重要。
        讓我們從大處來分析這三場比賽的異同。

    In the three meetings, what stands out is how Boston's defense
    continues to make Miami's offense -- and, by extension, any
    iso-heavy offense -- look positively awful. I think this is the
    most important takeaway from Sunday, much more important than the
    big to-do about Miami's 1-6 mark against the team with the best
    record. (A top team struggling against other elite teams seems as
    though it should be important, but every shred of evidence
    suggests it isn't. Heat fans will be familiar with this concept,
    as their team won a title in 2006 despite losing to virtually
    every good team in the regular season.)
        這三場比賽最明顯的共通點就是熱火引以自豪的單打戰術對老賽的防守
        毫無吃香之處。我想這是你們應該要注意到的。
        這一點的重要性比熱火對上聯盟其他三強戰績是1w-6l更來的重要許多。
        （事實上強隊對上其他列強戰績不佳是很常見的，也不需要過多擔心，
        問問2006年的熱火就知道。）

    To me, the Miami offense versus Boston defense matchup is the
    major roadblock between the Heat and a championship. At full
    strength, I would take Miami in a seven-game series against every
    other team in the league, even the Lakers or San Antonio. Against
    Boston? It's hard to endorse the Heat when they can't score.
        對我來說，熱火的茅與老賽的盾才是觀戰重點，也是熱火與冠軍間
        最重要的難處。如果熱火夠健康，我認為在7戰4勝的季後賽裡
        熱火可以幾乎打敗任何球隊，包括馬刺和湖人。但是對老賽？
        我覺得在無法得分的狀況下很難替他們背書。

    If you're handicapping the race for the title, it also sets up a
    rock-paper-scissors situation among the contenders. I think Boston
     likes playing Miami more than trying to handle L.A. or San
    Antonio. I think Miami would much rather face L.A. or San Antonio
    than Boston. And I think L.A. or San Antonio would much rather
    face Boston than see Miami in the Finals.
        如果你來看這些有機會拿冠軍的球隊之間，又出現了相攻相剋的關係。
        我認為老賽會更喜歡打熱火勝於打湖人或馬刺。熱火會更喜歡打
        湖人和馬刺勝於打老賽。而我認為湖人和馬刺會更喜歡打老賽也不願意打熱火。

    Unfortunately for the Heat, they're likely to have to go through
    Boston to get to the Lakers or Spurs. (I say this not dismissing
    Chicago or Orlando, but the most likely conference finals scenario
     is Heat-Celtics.)
        不幸的是，對熱火來說，他們必須要通過老賽才能打湖人和馬刺。
        （我這樣說並不是貶低公牛和魔術，而是目前看來老賽-熱火是最有可能
        的東區冠軍戰戲碼）

    But let's get back to the offense. In three games against the
    Celtics, the Heat have scored 80, 82 and 107 points, and even the
    107 comes with an asterisk -- Miami fell way behind thanks to a
    46-point first half in that game before turning on the jets late.
    That's been a common theme, in fact, as the Heat and Celtics have
    played virtually the same game three different times. In each,
    Boston took a double-digit lead, Miami stormed back in the fourth
    and then Boston made a few plays at the end to clinch it.
        讓我們回到進攻上。這三場比賽，熱火分別得了80,82與107分，
        107分的比賽要上星號，因為這場比賽基本上毫無懸念，只有最後
        一節熱火才追了很多分數。
        這三場比賽也有個共通現象，基本上這兩隊幾乎打了三場一樣的比賽。
        每場比賽，老賽都拿到雙位數領先，而熱火都在第四節開始追趕，
        老賽最後則執行的比較漂亮而獲得勝利。

    But all three games have been similar in another way: Wade was
    just awful.
        而這三場比賽也有另一個共通點：Wade爛透了。

    If the Heat are to beat the Celtics, this can't be the case. Wade
    is the Miami player matched up against the weakest defender in
    Boston's starting five, Ray Allen. He is the one who needs to take
     advantage of all the extra attention the Celtics pay to LeBron
    James. And he's the one most capable of putting fouls on the
    Celtics' starters and getting into their less gifted bench.
        如果熱火要擊敗老賽，Wade不能繼續爛。Wade某種程度上是對位到
        防守上相對比較弱的Ray Allen。他必須要從老賽把很大防守重心放在
        LBJ身上的模式裡取得優勢才對。而且他是最容易吸引犯規的人。
        讓老賽先發有犯規麻煩而換上板凳才對。

    Instead, he's been absolutely brutal. Wade was 6-of-17 with six
    turnovers yesterday, and it was the best game he's had against
    Boston this season. Overall he's 12-for-45 from the field --
    that's 26.7 percent if you're scoring at home -- with an amazing
    18 turnovers against just 13 assists in the first three games.
        相反的，Wade打的很糟。他6-17的命中率和六次失誤，而這已經是
        他這三場最好的一場比賽。總結三場比賽，他投45進12（26.7%），
        還有18次失誤，只有13顆助攻。

    LeBron and Chris Bosh haven't gone gangbusters, either, at least
    by their standards, and I think there's a big-picture reason for
    this involving playing styles.
        LBJ和Bosh這三場比賽也沒有爆氣（至少以他們的能力來說），而我覺得
        這就是為什麼我說從大處來看這跟熱火進攻的模式有很大關係。

    Miami's three aces are at their best going one-on-one. Wade is the
     most extreme in this regard, but James and Bosh are also most
    comfortable when they can stop the ball and size up the defense
    before attacking.
        熱火三王最強的就是他們的單打能力。Wade又為其中之最，LBJ和Bosh
        通常也對單打得心應手。

    Unfortunately, we have reams of data suggesting that one-on-one
    offense against Boston's defense doesn't work very well. There's
    too much help from the big guys, and they load up on the strong
    side too aggressively. Because that's much of what the Heat do,
    this matchup may remain a vexing one come May.
        不幸的是，我們有一大疊資料告訴我們老賽的防守體系最不怕的就是
        單打戰術。他們的大個子在強邊的協防和速度是主因。
        而問題是熱火的戰術就是這樣，所以可預見的是在五月的熱火將會受到
        這個體系的詛咒。

    In contrast, what works against Boston is the drive-kick-space
    approach. Those types of teams have seen their offensive games
    largely unaffected by going against the Celtics' normally daunting
     D. Even the bad ones -- think Toronto -- have put up decent
    offensive numbers; the Raps broke the century mark three times in
    four meetings and even beat Boston once.
        相反的，對付老賽最有用的就是切-傳-卡的戰術（按：基本上就是禁區
        要有人準備接球以及隨時卡位這種攪和型的角色）
        這類型的隊伍對上老賽基本上在進攻上是不吃虧的。即使是爛隊也是。
        就像暴龍對上老賽，四場比賽裡有三場破百，還有一場擊敗老賽。

    And the decent-to-good ones? They've fared rather well. Phoenix
    has beat Boston three straight times. New York scored 101 and 116
    in two narrow losses. Houston, Dallas and San Antonio each cleared
     the century mark in Boston; the first two won, and the Spurs
    narrowly lost. About the only team that plays this way that hasn't
     had a lot of offensive success against the Celtics is Orlando.
        而（這類打法）如果是中強以上的球隊，對上老賽就更吃香了。
        太陽已經擊敗老賽三次。紐約雖然輸，但是兩場比分差距很小，
        而且分別得了101和116分。火箭、小牛和馬刺對上老賽也都
        得到百分以上。前兩隊都贏，馬刺也只是惜敗。到目前為止這類
        陣型的球隊唯一對老賽沒有太多甜頭的是魔術。
        （按：我覺得魔術不太算是這類陣型，魔術禁區強，打法卻跟
        這些球隊差很多）

    The spectacular news for the Celtics, of course, is that most of
    those aforementioned teams are safely ensconced in the Western
    Conference, and Boston may never see them come the playoffs. And
    the only one in the East, the Knicks, is so weak defensively that
    the Celtics would probably beat it anyway, even if they end up
    paired in a 2 versus 7 matchup in the first round.
        對老賽來說，好消息是上面這些球隊基本上都在西區。
        老賽在季後賽根本不會看到。唯一在東區的是紐約，但是紐約的防守又太鳥，
        所以即使是2-7種子相遇，老賽也不怕。

    The Heat, however, have no such luck. I'd pick them against anyone
     from the West, but they may never get the chance because they
    can't score on the Celtics. Despite the narrowness of the outcome,
     that's my enduring takeaway from Sunday. If it comes to a
    Miami-Boston Eastern Conference finals, the Heat will need to play
     some outrageously good defense to win, because all indications
    are that their offense matches up terribly against the Celtics.
        對熱火來說就沒有那麼幸運了。我會預測熱火如果在東區出線，
        可以擊敗來自西區的任何隊伍，但是他們或許不會有這個機會，
        因為他們無法從老賽手中得分。即使這三敗差距都很小也不例外。
        如果熱火-老賽在東區冠軍賽相遇，熱火需要暴氣級的防守才有可能贏，
        因為老賽的防守死死的克制了熱火的進攻。


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推 darren800922:好文推   其實我也覺得今年大概沒甚麼希望了@@
推 pushu5566:推一個！不過既然已經知道缺點WADE季候賽會像06無雙典偉
→ pushu5566:06的活塞～五虎將防守硬度也不輸超賽！不過少了O肥
推 ignativs:WADE在06年以前幾乎每年都在成長 現在的他幾乎已經定型了
→ ignativs:私心的每年都希望他能改變 能打的更聰明 能打的更細膩點
推 fatherboard:wade季後賽只要是能打的 都很殺啦 安啦
推 ignativs:我想表達的不是他打不好或狀況差 從他進NBA就看到現在
推 yihungsky:推!!!!
推 dwyanelin:馬的別提WADE當年勇 我需要他現在勇
→ dwyanelin:他根本就還沒有轉變好
推 Rubymiddle:基本上他提暴龍就講錯了 暴龍也是拿老賽沒辦法
→ Rubymiddle:那唯一的一勝老賽沒有軟豆 而且也才驚險的贏一分而已
→ kart:他是單以進攻來講  這篇強調的就是熱火進攻戰術遇老賽無解
→ kart:而且他強調的是禁區的打法，軟豆在怎麼樣守不到禁區
→ Rubymiddle:那場唯一的亮點在於犯規界的羅德曼Reggie Evans抓爆了
→ Rubymiddle:老賽的籃板 可是他的進攻也是零分阿 = =
→ Rubymiddle:老實講我覺得老賽的防守真的滿屌的 近乎收放自如
→ kart:抓爆老賽籃板已經是熱火望塵莫及的事了...
→ Rubymiddle:前兩場對暴龍比分算是比較接近 他可以把你後衛守到
→ Rubymiddle:卡德隆 DD (也是以切入為主 外線比偉德還慘
→ Rubymiddle:兩個守到勞賽到不行 後兩場比分拉比較開 就讓你切
→ Rubymiddle:多得幾分也不影響勝負 我只能說打緊繃的比賽他們太強了
→ Rubymiddle:油頭大概本來以為JA可以當個犯規界的羅德曼吧
推 Rubymiddle:沒想到是犯規界的大三零
推 bailant:wade跟lbj的外線一定得練起來 現在關鍵時刻等於只有一個射
→ bailant:手在場上
→ WinShot:對C's了解多一點的人就不會寫什麼不茍同傷兵論了
→ kart:我想他說的是傷兵對這一場比賽的影響，不是整體影響
→ kart:我的確覺得傷兵對這一場影響還好而已，W兄見解不同歡迎回文
→ WinShot:影響還好是因為板凳中的板凳Wafer這場跳出來
→ WinShot:不然就幾乎是六人輪替  他們是老賽隊不是勇士隊
→ WinShot:PP最近的比賽都打很差  可是後面就是沒人了
→ WinShot:跳豆也是傷還沒好先回來分點時間  不然Rondo就得打滿全場
推 raychen0322:好文推