[外電] 歷史站在馬刺那邊

[kart (=\)]

        http://ppt.cc/OmiV

        原文很長我很懶，節錄重點
        基本上算是客觀歷史數據文而已，先別太激動 @@

    The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have reached the NBA Finals,
    setting up a rematch of last year's classic seven-game battle.
    With four days between the conclusion of the conference finals and
     Game 1, now comes the real fun: predicting the outcome.
        還有四天才開打，太無聊，只好來做預測嚕。

    Predicting the NBA Finals is somewhat different from other playoff
     series. First, there's more playoff data available -- three full
    rounds against a variety of opponents, giving a better idea of
    who's playing better right now. Second, because the teams have
    played each other just twice during the regular season, there's
    less head-to-head data to determine whether the matchup is good or
     bad.
        預測冠軍賽跟其他季後賽對手不同，原因有二：
        1. 季後賽資料多很多
        2. 兩隊每年也就打兩次

    So what has really mattered when picking the winner of past
    Finals? And what does that say about this year's series? Let's
    take a look.
        所以要如何著手呢？讓我們看下去。

    Matters: Regular-Season Records
        重要：季賽戰績

    Ordinarily, statistical projections will start with point
    differential. But when it comes to the NBA Finals, during the past
     three decades, records have matched up better with results than
    differential.
        過去30年來，季賽戰績成為一個不錯的指標。

    When the two teams were separated by three games or fewer during
    the regular season, teams with home-court advantage have actually
    been more likely to get upset than win the series, going 4-5. But
    when they won at least six more games during the regular season,
    they've gone a dominant 16-2, with 1995 (Houston over Orlando) and
     2006 (Miami over Dallas) the lone exceptions. That's bad news for
     the Heat, who finished eight games behind the Spurs in the
    standings.
        當兩隊戰績差在三場以下，基本上結果說明勢均力敵。
        戰績優的一方甚至以4:5落後。
        然而如果戰績差別在6場以上，那就呈現一面倒了。
        戰績優的一方以16:2遙遙領先，唯二是95年的火箭和06年的熱火。
        而今年熱火戰績就差馬刺達8場。

    Doesn't Matter: Head-to-Head Results
        不重要的：對戰成績。

    Against conference foes, there is predictive value to the
    regular-season series between the two teams -- especially in the
    opening round. That doesn't carry over to the NBA Finals. Two
    games simply aren't enough to tell us much about how the teams
    match up.
        在前三輪，對戰成績可以做一個不錯的預測根據。
        但是冠軍賽季賽只打兩場，對戰成績無法說明太多。

    Half of the past 30 Finalists have split the season series, as
    Miami and San Antonio did this season. Though nine of the other 15
     Finals were won by the team that swept the season series, that
    doesn't provide much new information because most of those teams
    had home-court advantage. The lower-seeded team has gone on to win
     the Finals just once out of the four times it swept in the
    regular season.
        過去30年，有15次對戰是1:1。如同今年的火刺。
        季賽2:0者在剩下的15次裡面也只有9:6，而且主因是大部份2:0的球隊
        都有主場優勢。四次沒有主場優勢但是季賽橫掃對方的球隊裡只有一隻
        拿到冠軍。所以對戰成績能給我們知道的有限。

    Matters: Playoff Performance
        重要：季後賽的表現。

    It pays to be hot going into the Finals. When the lower-seeded
    team had a better point differential during the first three rounds
     of the playoffs, adjusted for schedule, the series is nearly a
    toss-up -- the favorites win 57.1 percent of the time (8-6). When
    the team with home court also has performed better during the
    playoffs, however, they're a dominant 14-2 (87.5 percent), with
    1998 (Chicago over Utah, when the two teams were nearly even
    leading up to the Finals) and 2006 (Miami over Dallas, again) the
    exceptions.
        冠軍賽戰績較差的一方，在之前季後賽卻打得比較好時（以調整分差來看），
        即使是客場出發也能打出5-5波，14次裡面反而能贏8次。
        反之，如果已經是戰績較優，季後賽前三輪又打得更優，
        那他們在冠軍賽基本上是佔盡優勢（14-2)。
        唯一的例外是98年的公牛和06年的熱火（again!）

    The Heat (plus-7.0) and Spurs (plus-8.0) had similar average
    margins en route to the Finals. However, San Antonio played a much
     more difficult schedule in the competitive West. So San Antonio's
     adjusted differential of plus-11.6 points per game is much better
     than Miami's plus-8.1 mark.
        熱火和馬刺在季後賽前三輪的調整分差（算進對手強度）
        馬刺以+11.6大勝熱火的+8.1，
        加上馬刺又有主場優勢，熱火堪慮。

    Doesn't Matter: Games Played
        不重要：季後賽打了幾場。

    Because the Spurs went a full seven games in the first round, the
    Heat have played three fewer games in the postseason. Turns out
    that extra rest is not a factor in why playoff performance to date
     matters in the Finals. In fact, favorites who have played more
    games (like San Antonio) have actually tended to perform slightly
    better than expected, possibly because it means they've faced more
     challenging opposition.
        季後賽打得越多的球隊雖然休息較少，但是其實在冠軍賽表現還些微
        優於休息多的球隊，但是從歷史來看基本上是沒影響。

    Matters: Defensive Rating
        重要：防守。

    Yes, defense wins championships -- as long as it is paired with a
    good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better
     defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 out of the
    past 30 Finals, a figure that substantially understates its
    importance. See, offense-first teams are more likely to have home
    court in the Finals. When the better defensive team also has
    home-court advantage, it has won 86.7 percent of the time (13-2).
    And better defensive teams have frequently pulled upsets without
    home court, going 6-9 (40 percent) in those series.
        冠軍賽兩隊中，季賽防守就比較優的那隊過去30年贏了19次。
        如果把主客場算進去，有主場優勢季賽防守又優的球隊在15次裡面
        贏了13次。反之，季賽優卻從客場出發的贏球翻盤率也不小15次能翻6次盤。

    Again, the importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the
    better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points
    allowed per 100 possessions; Miami finished 11th. The Heat would
    be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside
    the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st).
        馬刺再一次站在歷史這一邊，防守優於熱火，又有主場優勢。
        更別提熱火今年防守下滑，全聯盟只有第11。
        事實上如果熱火贏冠軍，將會是從2001來第一個不靠防守贏球的冠軍。

    Unlike those Lakers, Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on
     its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs. The Heat
    reached the Finals largely on the strength of their offense, which
     dominated the league's No. 1 (Indiana) and No. 6 (Charlotte)
    defenses. Miami scored 12.9 more points per 100 possessions during
     the East playoffs than its opponents allowed during the regular
    season (weighted by games played), but allowed them to score 2.8
    more points per 100 possessions than usual.
        熱火季後賽靠的是可怕的進攻和對手貧弱的進攻，而非加強防守。
        事實上在防守端熱火季後賽的平均失分/100次球權還略遜季賽。

    By contrast, San Antonio's playoff run has been incredibly
    balanced. In fact, the Spurs have been slightly better on defense
    (plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions better than opponent
    averages) than offense (plus-6.9). That kind of balance is rare in
     the postseason. Just five teams since the ABA-NBA merger have
    been at least six points better than average per 100 possessions
    at both ends of the court.
        馬刺季後賽則是攻守相當平衡，進攻和防守端都穩定的領先對手。

    Putting it Together
        總而言之：

    A regression that combines regular-season win differential and
    playoff performance leading up to the Finals -- but not defensive
    rating, which isn't statistically significant as part of a
    regression -- correctly retrodicts 27 of the past 30 Finals
    outcomes. Based on that, San Antonio has an 88 percent chance of
    winning the Finals.
        從歷史角度來看，馬刺有88%的機率奪冠。

    The good news for Miami? As you might guess from going through the
     indicators, the biggest upset in modern Finals history was pulled
     off by another Heat team with Dwyane Wade.
        熱火的好消息是？
        最近一次打預測專家臉的就是2006的Wade。

    BIGGEST PROJECTED FINALS MISMATCHES (1984-2013)
        近30年來冠軍賽差別最大的預測值：

    Year    Home    Away    WinDiff    HomePO    AwayPO    Probability Outcome
    年份    主場    客場       勝差                            奪冠率   結果
    1986    BOS    HOU          16       14.5    10.7           .997    4-2
    1999    SAS    NYK          16*      11.4    9.2            .996    4-1
    1996    CHI    SEA          8        17.6    6.7            .989    4-2
    1987    LAL    BOS          6        14.7    3.2            .979    4-2
    2000    LAL    IND          11       8.4     3.3            .978    4-2
    2001    LAL    PHI          0        20.8    3.8            .959    4-1
    2006    DAL    MIA          8        12.5    7.5            .933    2-4
    2003    SAS    NJN          11       9.1     9.0            .894    4-2
    2002    LAL    NJN          6        8.2     2.7            .866    4-0
    2007    SAS    CLE          8        7.0     5.7            .810    4-0
    *Prorated to an 82-game season
        （注：以這個公式來算馬刺今年奪冠率是88%）

    Still, nine of the 10 teams most heavily favored entering the
    Finals won the series, and none of the underdogs even forced a
    Game 7. The 2006 Finals are also the exception to the rule when it
     comes to favorites who had a better point differential in both
    the regular season and the conference playoffs. Those teams are
    11-1 in the past three decades.
        歷史觀之，10隊裡面只有一次被翻盤。

    Despite this overwhelming evidence, the Heat are only slight
    underdogs to win the series in Las Vegas. The most common line
    suggests the Spurs have a 57 percent chance to win. In part, the
    discrepancy can be traced to the popularity of Miami, as two-time
    defending champion. But it also surely reflects a belief we still
    haven't seen the best of the Heat, given Miami's tendency to play
    better when behind in series and in fourth quarters.
        不過即使如此，拉斯維加斯的賭盤中熱火只算小輸，
        賭盤開出馬刺57%贏。
        我想這跟熱火是b2b衛冕軍所以有很多信徒有關。
        當然，也有很多人相信熱火還沒發揮完全的實力，
        畢竟看起來當他們落後或是打第四節的時候，他們的實力最常展現。

    That might prove the case, because the Heat haven't yet been
    seriously challenged in the playoffs. But they'll have to raise
    their level considerably to match the way San Antonio is playing.
    Six times this postseason, the Spurs have beaten opponents by 20
    points more than an average team in the same situation. Miami has
    done that only once -- the closeout Game 6 against Indiana.
        或許真是如此，畢竟熱火在季後賽算是過得挺爽。
        但是他們要贏馬刺，就肯定要在提升一個檔次才行。
        馬刺在今年季後賽打爆對手6次（20分 up）
        熱火只有打爆一次。

    If the Heat are to win their third consecutive championship, it
    will mean defying three decades' worth of Finals trends.
        如果熱火今年要奪冠，他們就要逆天而行了。

        ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝

        心得：熱火這兩年季後賽好像打破不少紀錄，希望維持下去 @@
              去年有印象的是季賽籃板最後一名卻拿冠軍，之前最爛好像是2x(x<5)。
              今年目前有的是季賽0-4，季後賽卻勝出。是第一支如此球隊。
              冠軍賽再來逆天一次！

--
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※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MiamiHeat/M.1401741229.A.3A8.html
※ 編輯: kart (72.34.128.250), 06/03/2014 04:40:56
推 wocow123:可惜熱火專門推翻歷史還有糗爺
推 wii128:逆天
推 krajicek:馬刺對雷霆也是季賽0-4，季後賽卻勝出
推 krajicek:專家預測剛好跟去年是顛倒過來，去年是熱火備受看好
→ krajicek:但是卻打了七場才險勝。今年是馬刺被看好，希望能激起
→ krajicek:熱火不服輸的精神跟韌性，好好的再打一次專家的臉
推 wii128:Under dog 對熱火比較好
推 Jotard:2012也是很被看衰  但那年最後也是4:1狂電雷霆
→ Jotard:不過今年對到的是馬刺就真的很難預測  跟去年一樣
→ Jotard:現在對熱火唯一的利多就是跑車的傷勢  這點擋不住就不用玩
→ Jotard:季賽兩場雙方都大比分取勝  也就是說一被抓到痛點就會狂歐
推 Chalmers23:第一年打雷雷也被看衰 還有一張美國地圖各州都是藍藍的
→ Jotard:在這一點上兩隊倒是挺像的XD
→ Chalmers23:都支持雷霆贏 結果被4：1xD
推 mjuan:我覺得只要有健康火熱的LCD 就算強如馬刺也得俯首稱臣
推 nctucch17170:熱火最愛打歷史臉了  來創造歷史吧~
推 wade1223:好刺激阿 拜託贏吧 我想要三連霸阿阿阿
→ taiwanalien:11-12打雷霆，熱火也沒主場優勢 科科
推 timohu:流川楓：打籃球不是算算數，上就對了！
→ Chalmers23:聽說巴爺明年要去當球評真要退的話就拿了三連霸在退吧!
推 wilmkingball:數據雖然站在馬刺那邊 但也只是參考 打了才知道!!!
→ BlueSatan:我看好馬刺,因為他們多一場主場,此外今年比去年陣容更好
→ BlueSatan:反觀熱火,每個人都認為三王比去年狀況更好...
→ BlueSatan:我反而覺得持平,拿Wade來說,每次打冠軍賽不管有沒有傷
→ BlueSatan:他都是一樣全力打球,沒有去年有傷今年沒傷表現更好說法
→ BlueSatan:我個人是認為熱火今年跟去年比沒有差別,MM走614補上...
→ BlueSatan:但問題是少了一場主場優勢,這才會是影響最大的關鍵...
→ BlueSatan:今年兩隊的關鍵就看兩隊的替補球員誰的表現比較好
→ BlueSatan:熱火看614/Ray/Cole/Rio/Birdman
→ BlueSatan:馬刺看Manu/Diaw/Beli/Mills...替補好壞決定勝負
→ BlueSatan:以目前狀況而言,熱火唯一能擊敗馬刺的可能條件
→ BlueSatan:就是LBJ展現MJ等級的威力突破自己大爆發...
→ BlueSatan:要LBJ打得像去年G7那樣生猛我覺得挺難的,可能還有心魔~~
推 skunnyk:心魔又來了嗎～ 我猜心魔在第一場推文就會出現 頗ㄏ
→ cracKnel:小弟不負責猜測  破主場會在第五場與第七場 (體力因素
→ cracKnel:雖說 G6與G7隔好幾天 但Final的強度還是年輕人較有本錢
推 Chalmers23:心魔大概在G1中場出現
推 bobyacool:沒拿冠有心魔 拿了兩冠還有心魔 我看退休以後還會有心魔
推 exile14:推心魔 馬刺看到底角雷槍應該就有心魔
推 taiwanalien:雷槍可像魔鬼筋肉人般，若有似無的上場來讓POPO心魔
推 hij76128:我倒覺得一定要想辦法在G1和G2先破對方主場
→ hij76128:因為G1和G2要是都輸所面臨的壓力 會讓主場也容易潰堤..
推 xzxc:心魔會一直跟隨著~~~~~到退休 是嗎xd
→ cracKnel:大家都忘了G5G6G7 我火讓小綠連接球運球都不會的心魔
※ 編輯: kart (66.140.189.134), 06/03/2014 15:17:24
推 wilson78225:國外原來也流行遮眼看數據法，不錯！顏色對了應該很多
→ wilson78225:人文章支持推哦*^___^*
推 wilson78225:對了補充一下，熱火去年就已經逆天了多少紀錄整理一下
→ wilson78225:就狂打這篇臉了，籃球是圓的。
推 WasJohnWall:今年我相信濕婆
噓 mabirex:心魔心魔心魔
推 blur13: 淫魔淫魔淫魔
推 tbmaker:哈哈 季賽成績本來就有用 前幾天在總版還被火迷噓哩