Re: [外電] 歷史站在馬刺那邊

[zenwu (Orange Man)]

這話題討論這麼熱烈 我也來參與一下吧
標題是     歷史站在馬刺這裡
我的回答是 勝利站在熱火這裡
看這支球隊將近20年的時間 有尖峰 也有谷底
但每次觀看比賽 心理只會有一個期許
"拿下這場該死的比賽吧"
籃球是圓的 歷史是用來創造的

White Hot Heat


※ 引述《kart (=\)》之銘言：
:         http://ppt.cc/OmiV
:         原文很長我很懶，節錄重點
:         基本上算是客觀歷史數據文而已，先別太激動 @@
:     The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have reached the NBA Finals,
:     setting up a rematch of last year's classic seven-game battle.
:     With four days between the conclusion of the conference finals and
:      Game 1, now comes the real fun: predicting the outcome.
:         還有四天才開打，太無聊，只好來做預測嚕。
:     Predicting the NBA Finals is somewhat different from other playoff
:      series. First, there's more playoff data available -- three full
:     rounds against a variety of opponents, giving a better idea of
:     who's playing better right now. Second, because the teams have
:     played each other just twice during the regular season, there's
:     less head-to-head data to determine whether the matchup is good or
:      bad.
:         預測冠軍賽跟其他季後賽對手不同，原因有二：
:         1. 季後賽資料多很多
:         2. 兩隊每年也就打兩次
:     So what has really mattered when picking the winner of past
:     Finals? And what does that say about this year's series? Let's
:     take a look.
:         所以要如何著手呢？讓我們看下去。
:     Matters: Regular-Season Records
:         重要：季賽戰績
:     Ordinarily, statistical projections will start with point
:     differential. But when it comes to the NBA Finals, during the past
:      three decades, records have matched up better with results than
:     differential.
:         過去30年來，季賽戰績成為一個不錯的指標。
:     When the two teams were separated by three games or fewer during
:     the regular season, teams with home-court advantage have actually
:     been more likely to get upset than win the series, going 4-5. But
:     when they won at least six more games during the regular season,
:     they've gone a dominant 16-2, with 1995 (Houston over Orlando) and
:      2006 (Miami over Dallas) the lone exceptions. That's bad news for
:      the Heat, who finished eight games behind the Spurs in the
:     standings.
:         當兩隊戰績差在三場以下，基本上結果說明勢均力敵。
:         戰績優的一方甚至以4:5落後。
:         然而如果戰績差別在6場以上，那就呈現一面倒了。
:         戰績優的一方以16:2遙遙領先，唯二是95年的火箭和06年的熱火。
:         而今年熱火戰績就差馬刺達8場。
:     Doesn't Matter: Head-to-Head Results
:         不重要的：對戰成績。
:     Against conference foes, there is predictive value to the
:     regular-season series between the two teams -- especially in the
:     opening round. That doesn't carry over to the NBA Finals. Two
:     games simply aren't enough to tell us much about how the teams
:     match up.
:         在前三輪，對戰成績可以做一個不錯的預測根據。
:         但是冠軍賽季賽只打兩場，對戰成績無法說明太多。
:     Half of the past 30 Finalists have split the season series, as
:     Miami and San Antonio did this season. Though nine of the other 15
:      Finals were won by the team that swept the season series, that
:     doesn't provide much new information because most of those teams
:     had home-court advantage. The lower-seeded team has gone on to win
:      the Finals just once out of the four times it swept in the
:     regular season.
:         過去30年，有15次對戰是1:1。如同今年的火刺。
:         季賽2:0者在剩下的15次裡面也只有9:6，而且主因是大部份2:0的球隊
:         都有主場優勢。四次沒有主場優勢但是季賽橫掃對方的球隊裡只有一隻
:         拿到冠軍。所以對戰成績能給我們知道的有限。
:     Matters: Playoff Performance
:         重要：季後賽的表現。
:     It pays to be hot going into the Finals. When the lower-seeded
:     team had a better point differential during the first three rounds
:      of the playoffs, adjusted for schedule, the series is nearly a
:     toss-up -- the favorites win 57.1 percent of the time (8-6). When
:     the team with home court also has performed better during the
:     playoffs, however, they're a dominant 14-2 (87.5 percent), with
:     1998 (Chicago over Utah, when the two teams were nearly even
:     leading up to the Finals) and 2006 (Miami over Dallas, again) the
:     exceptions.
:         冠軍賽戰績較差的一方，在之前季後賽卻打得比較好時（以調整分差來看），
:         即使是客場出發也能打出5-5波，14次裡面反而能贏8次。
:         反之，如果已經是戰績較優，季後賽前三輪又打得更優，
:         那他們在冠軍賽基本上是佔盡優勢（14-2)。
:         唯一的例外是98年的公牛和06年的熱火（again!）
:     The Heat (plus-7.0) and Spurs (plus-8.0) had similar average
:     margins en route to the Finals. However, San Antonio played a much
:      more difficult schedule in the competitive West. So San Antonio's
:      adjusted differential of plus-11.6 points per game is much better
:      than Miami's plus-8.1 mark.
:         熱火和馬刺在季後賽前三輪的調整分差（算進對手強度）
:         馬刺以+11.6大勝熱火的+8.1，
:         加上馬刺又有主場優勢，熱火堪慮。
:     Doesn't Matter: Games Played
:         不重要：季後賽打了幾場。
:     Because the Spurs went a full seven games in the first round, the
:     Heat have played three fewer games in the postseason. Turns out
:     that extra rest is not a factor in why playoff performance to date
:      matters in the Finals. In fact, favorites who have played more
:     games (like San Antonio) have actually tended to perform slightly
:     better than expected, possibly because it means they've faced more
:      challenging opposition.
:         季後賽打得越多的球隊雖然休息較少，但是其實在冠軍賽表現還些微
:         優於休息多的球隊，但是從歷史來看基本上是沒影響。
:     Matters: Defensive Rating
:         重要：防守。
:     Yes, defense wins championships -- as long as it is paired with a
:     good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better
:      defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 out of the
:     past 30 Finals, a figure that substantially understates its
:     importance. See, offense-first teams are more likely to have home
:     court in the Finals. When the better defensive team also has
:     home-court advantage, it has won 86.7 percent of the time (13-2).
:     And better defensive teams have frequently pulled upsets without
:     home court, going 6-9 (40 percent) in those series.
:         冠軍賽兩隊中，季賽防守就比較優的那隊過去30年贏了19次。
:         如果把主客場算進去，有主場優勢季賽防守又優的球隊在15次裡面
:         贏了13次。反之，季賽優卻從客場出發的贏球翻盤率也不小15次能翻6次盤。
:     Again, the importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the
:     better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points
:     allowed per 100 possessions; Miami finished 11th. The Heat would
:     be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside
:     the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st).
:         馬刺再一次站在歷史這一邊，防守優於熱火，又有主場優勢。
:         更別提熱火今年防守下滑，全聯盟只有第11。
:         事實上如果熱火贏冠軍，將會是從2001來第一個不靠防守贏球的冠軍。
:     Unlike those Lakers, Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on
:      its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs. The Heat
:     reached the Finals largely on the strength of their offense, which
:      dominated the league's No. 1 (Indiana) and No. 6 (Charlotte)
:     defenses. Miami scored 12.9 more points per 100 possessions during
:      the East playoffs than its opponents allowed during the regular
:     season (weighted by games played), but allowed them to score 2.8
:     more points per 100 possessions than usual.
:         熱火季後賽靠的是可怕的進攻和對手貧弱的進攻，而非加強防守。
:         事實上在防守端熱火季後賽的平均失分/100次球權還略遜季賽。
:     By contrast, San Antonio's playoff run has been incredibly
:     balanced. In fact, the Spurs have been slightly better on defense
:     (plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions better than opponent
:     averages) than offense (plus-6.9). That kind of balance is rare in
:      the postseason. Just five teams since the ABA-NBA merger have
:     been at least six points better than average per 100 possessions
:     at both ends of the court.
:         馬刺季後賽則是攻守相當平衡，進攻和防守端都穩定的領先對手。
:     Putting it Together
:         總而言之：
:     A regression that combines regular-season win differential and
:     playoff performance leading up to the Finals -- but not defensive
:     rating, which isn't statistically significant as part of a
:     regression -- correctly retrodicts 27 of the past 30 Finals
:     outcomes. Based on that, San Antonio has an 88 percent chance of
:     winning the Finals.
:         從歷史角度來看，馬刺有88%的機率奪冠。
:     The good news for Miami? As you might guess from going through the
:      indicators, the biggest upset in modern Finals history was pulled
:      off by another Heat team with Dwyane Wade.
:         熱火的好消息是？
:         最近一次打預測專家臉的就是2006的Wade。
:     BIGGEST PROJECTED FINALS MISMATCHES (1984-2013)
:         近30年來冠軍賽差別最大的預測值：
:     Year    Home    Away    WinDiff    HomePO    AwayPO    Probability Outcome
:     年份    主場    客場       勝差                            奪冠率   結果
:     1986    BOS    HOU          16       14.5    10.7           .997    4-2
:     1999    SAS    NYK          16*      11.4    9.2            .996    4-1
:     1996    CHI    SEA          8        17.6    6.7            .989    4-2
:     1987    LAL    BOS          6        14.7    3.2            .979    4-2
:     2000    LAL    IND          11       8.4     3.3            .978    4-2
:     2001    LAL    PHI          0        20.8    3.8            .959    4-1
:     2006    DAL    MIA          8        12.5    7.5            .933    2-4
:     2003    SAS    NJN          11       9.1     9.0            .894    4-2
:     2002    LAL    NJN          6        8.2     2.7            .866    4-0
:     2007    SAS    CLE          8        7.0     5.7            .810    4-0
:     *Prorated to an 82-game season
:         （注：以這個公式來算馬刺今年奪冠率是88%）
:     Still, nine of the 10 teams most heavily favored entering the
:     Finals won the series, and none of the underdogs even forced a
:     Game 7. The 2006 Finals are also the exception to the rule when it
:      comes to favorites who had a better point differential in both
:     the regular season and the conference playoffs. Those teams are
:     11-1 in the past three decades.
:         歷史觀之，10隊裡面只有一次被翻盤。
:     Despite this overwhelming evidence, the Heat are only slight
:     underdogs to win the series in Las Vegas. The most common line
:     suggests the Spurs have a 57 percent chance to win. In part, the
:     discrepancy can be traced to the popularity of Miami, as two-time
:     defending champion. But it also surely reflects a belief we still
:     haven't seen the best of the Heat, given Miami's tendency to play
:     better when behind in series and in fourth quarters.
:         不過即使如此，拉斯維加斯的賭盤中熱火只算小輸，
:         賭盤開出馬刺57%贏。
:         我想這跟熱火是b2b衛冕軍所以有很多信徒有關。
:         當然，也有很多人相信熱火還沒發揮完全的實力，
:         畢竟看起來當他們落後或是打第四節的時候，他們的實力最常展現。
:     That might prove the case, because the Heat haven't yet been
:     seriously challenged in the playoffs. But they'll have to raise
:     their level considerably to match the way San Antonio is playing.
:     Six times this postseason, the Spurs have beaten opponents by 20
:     points more than an average team in the same situation. Miami has
:     done that only once -- the closeout Game 6 against Indiana.
:         或許真是如此，畢竟熱火在季後賽算是過得挺爽。
:         但是他們要贏馬刺，就肯定要在提升一個檔次才行。
:         馬刺在今年季後賽打爆對手6次（20分 up）
:         熱火只有打爆一次。
:     If the Heat are to win their third consecutive championship, it
:     will mean defying three decades' worth of Finals trends.
:         如果熱火今年要奪冠，他們就要逆天而行了。
:         ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
:         心得：熱火這兩年季後賽好像打破不少紀錄，希望維持下去 @@
:               去年有印象的是季賽籃板最後一名卻拿冠軍，之前最爛好像是2x(x<5)。
:               今年目前有的是季賽0-4，季後賽卻勝出。是第一支如此球隊。
:               冠軍賽再來逆天一次！

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推 joey1149:球是圓的,勝利站在熱火這邊 White Hot Heat
→ joey1149:只是明天是客場,應該不會穿白色的吧XD
→ skunnyk:熱火擅打逆天球，就看下去囉
推 JBROTHER:是版大就該挺
→ taiwanalien:籃球是圓的 歷史是用來創造的 胸部不是用來揉的
推 adad910:歷史是參考文獻，但熱火完成三連霸是最新期刊!!~~~~ ^^
→ peterman167:ㄏㄏ某酸酸裝啥可愛
→ adad910:呵~~什麼味道讓您酸酸呢~~~~ ^^
→ NicoRobin26:畜生ㄉ味道