Re: [外電] 歷史站在馬刺那邊

[peterman167 (由藤毛)]

※ 引述《zenwu (Orange Man)》之銘言：
: 這話題討論這麼熱烈 我也來參與一下吧
: 標題是     歷史站在馬刺這裡
: 我的回答是 勝利站在熱火這裡
: 看這支球隊將近20年的時間 有尖峰 也有谷底
: 但每次觀看比賽 心理只會有一個期許
: "拿下這場該死的比賽吧"
: 籃球是圓的 歷史是用來創造的
: White Hot Heat
: ※ 引述《kart (=\)》之銘言：
: :         http://ppt.cc/OmiV
: :         原文很長我很懶，節錄重點
: :         基本上算是客觀歷史數據文而已，先別太激動 @@
: :     The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have reached the NBA Finals,
: :     setting up a rematch of last year's classic seven-game battle.
: :     With four days between the conclusion of the conference finals and
: :      Game 1, now comes the real fun: predicting the outcome.
: :         還有四天才開打，太無聊，只好來做預測嚕。
: :     Predicting the NBA Finals is somewhat different from other playoff
: :      series. First, there's more playoff data available -- three full
: :     rounds against a variety of opponents, giving a better idea of
: :     who's playing better right now. Second, because the teams have
: :     played each other just twice during the regular season, there's
: :     less head-to-head data to determine whether the matchup is good or
: :      bad.
: :         預測冠軍賽跟其他季後賽對手不同，原因有二：
: :         1. 季後賽資料多很多
: :         2. 兩隊每年也就打兩次
: :     So what has really mattered when picking the winner of past
: :     Finals? And what does that say about this year's series? Let's
: :     take a look.
: :         所以要如何著手呢？讓我們看下去。
: :     Matters: Regular-Season Records
: :         重要：季賽戰績
: :     Ordinarily, statistical projections will start with point
: :     differential. But when it comes to the NBA Finals, during the past
: :      three decades, records have matched up better with results than
: :     differential.
: :         過去30年來，季賽戰績成為一個不錯的指標。
: :     When the two teams were separated by three games or fewer during
: :     the regular season, teams with home-court advantage have actually
: :     been more likely to get upset than win the series, going 4-5. But
: :     when they won at least six more games during the regular season,
: :     they've gone a dominant 16-2, with 1995 (Houston over Orlando) and
: :      2006 (Miami over Dallas) the lone exceptions. That's bad news for
: :      the Heat, who finished eight games behind the Spurs in the
: :     standings.
: :         當兩隊戰績差在三場以下，基本上結果說明勢均力敵。
: :         戰績優的一方甚至以4:5落後。
: :         然而如果戰績差別在6場以上，那就呈現一面倒了。
: :         戰績優的一方以16:2遙遙領先，唯二是95年的火箭和06年的熱火。
: :         而今年熱火戰績就差馬刺達8場。
: :     Doesn't Matter: Head-to-Head Results
: :         不重要的：對戰成績。
: :     Against conference foes, there is predictive value to the
: :     regular-season series between the two teams -- especially in the
: :     opening round. That doesn't carry over to the NBA Finals. Two
: :     games simply aren't enough to tell us much about how the teams
: :     match up.
: :         在前三輪，對戰成績可以做一個不錯的預測根據。
: :         但是冠軍賽季賽只打兩場，對戰成績無法說明太多。
: :     Half of the past 30 Finalists have split the season series, as
: :     Miami and San Antonio did this season. Though nine of the other 15
: :      Finals were won by the team that swept the season series, that
: :     doesn't provide much new information because most of those teams
: :     had home-court advantage. The lower-seeded team has gone on to win
: :      the Finals just once out of the four times it swept in the
: :     regular season.
: :         過去30年，有15次對戰是1:1。如同今年的火刺。
: :         季賽2:0者在剩下的15次裡面也只有9:6，而且主因是大部份2:0的球隊
: :         都有主場優勢。四次沒有主場優勢但是季賽橫掃對方的球隊裡只有一隻
: :         拿到冠軍。所以對戰成績能給我們知道的有限。
: :     Matters: Playoff Performance
: :         重要：季後賽的表現。
: :     It pays to be hot going into the Finals. When the lower-seeded
: :     team had a better point differential during the first three rounds
: :      of the playoffs, adjusted for schedule, the series is nearly a
: :     toss-up -- the favorites win 57.1 percent of the time (8-6). When
: :     the team with home court also has performed better during the
: :     playoffs, however, they're a dominant 14-2 (87.5 percent), with
: :     1998 (Chicago over Utah, when the two teams were nearly even
: :     leading up to the Finals) and 2006 (Miami over Dallas, again) the
: :     exceptions.
: :         冠軍賽戰績較差的一方，在之前季後賽卻打得比較好時（以調整分差來看），
: :         即使是客場出發也能打出5-5波，14次裡面反而能贏8次。
: :         反之，如果已經是戰績較優，季後賽前三輪又打得更優，
: :         那他們在冠軍賽基本上是佔盡優勢（14-2)。
: :         唯一的例外是98年的公牛和06年的熱火（again!）
: :     The Heat (plus-7.0) and Spurs (plus-8.0) had similar average
: :     margins en route to the Finals. However, San Antonio played a much
: :      more difficult schedule in the competitive West. So San Antonio's
: :      adjusted differential of plus-11.6 points per game is much better
: :      than Miami's plus-8.1 mark.
: :         熱火和馬刺在季後賽前三輪的調整分差（算進對手強度）
: :         馬刺以+11.6大勝熱火的+8.1，
: :         加上馬刺又有主場優勢，熱火堪慮。
: :     Doesn't Matter: Games Played
: :         不重要：季後賽打了幾場。
: :     Because the Spurs went a full seven games in the first round, the
: :     Heat have played three fewer games in the postseason. Turns out
: :     that extra rest is not a factor in why playoff performance to date
: :      matters in the Finals. In fact, favorites who have played more
: :     games (like San Antonio) have actually tended to perform slightly
: :     better than expected, possibly because it means they've faced more
: :      challenging opposition.
: :         季後賽打得越多的球隊雖然休息較少，但是其實在冠軍賽表現還些微
: :         優於休息多的球隊，但是從歷史來看基本上是沒影響。
: :     Matters: Defensive Rating
: :         重要：防守。
: :     Yes, defense wins championships -- as long as it is paired with a
: :     good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better
: :      defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 out of the
: :     past 30 Finals, a figure that substantially understates its
: :     importance. See, offense-first teams are more likely to have home
: :     court in the Finals. When the better defensive team also has
: :     home-court advantage, it has won 86.7 percent of the time (13-2).
: :     And better defensive teams have frequently pulled upsets without
: :     home court, going 6-9 (40 percent) in those series.
: :         冠軍賽兩隊中，季賽防守就比較優的那隊過去30年贏了19次。
: :         如果把主客場算進去，有主場優勢季賽防守又優的球隊在15次裡面
: :         贏了13次。反之，季賽優卻從客場出發的贏球翻盤率也不小15次能翻6次盤。
: :     Again, the importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the
: :     better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points
: :     allowed per 100 possessions; Miami finished 11th. The Heat would
: :     be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside
: :     the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st).
: :         馬刺再一次站在歷史這一邊，防守優於熱火，又有主場優勢。
: :         更別提熱火今年防守下滑，全聯盟只有第11。
: :         事實上如果熱火贏冠軍，將會是從2001來第一個不靠防守贏球的冠軍。
: :     Unlike those Lakers, Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on
: :      its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs. The Heat
: :     reached the Finals largely on the strength of their offense, which
: :      dominated the league's No. 1 (Indiana) and No. 6 (Charlotte)
: :     defenses. Miami scored 12.9 more points per 100 possessions during
: :      the East playoffs than its opponents allowed during the regular
: :     season (weighted by games played), but allowed them to score 2.8
: :     more points per 100 possessions than usual.
: :         熱火季後賽靠的是可怕的進攻和對手貧弱的進攻，而非加強防守。
: :         事實上在防守端熱火季後賽的平均失分/100次球權還略遜季賽。
: :     By contrast, San Antonio's playoff run has been incredibly
: :     balanced. In fact, the Spurs have been slightly better on defense
: :     (plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions better than opponent
: :     averages) than offense (plus-6.9). That kind of balance is rare in
: :      the postseason. Just five teams since the ABA-NBA merger have
: :     been at least six points better than average per 100 possessions
: :     at both ends of the court.
: :         馬刺季後賽則是攻守相當平衡，進攻和防守端都穩定的領先對手。
: :     Putting it Together
: :         總而言之：
: :     A regression that combines regular-season win differential and
: :     playoff performance leading up to the Finals -- but not defensive
: :     rating, which isn't statistically significant as part of a
: :     regression -- correctly retrodicts 27 of the past 30 Finals
: :     outcomes. Based on that, San Antonio has an 88 percent chance of
: :     winning the Finals.
: :         從歷史角度來看，馬刺有88%的機率奪冠。
: :     The good news for Miami? As you might guess from going through the
: :      indicators, the biggest upset in modern Finals history was pulled
: :      off by another Heat team with Dwyane Wade.
: :         熱火的好消息是？
: :         最近一次打預測專家臉的就是2006的Wade。
: :     BIGGEST PROJECTED FINALS MISMATCHES (1984-2013)
: :         近30年來冠軍賽差別最大的預測值：
: :     Year    Home    Away    WinDiff    HomePO    AwayPO    Probability Outcome
: :     年份    主場    客場       勝差                            奪冠率   結果
: :     1986    BOS    HOU          16       14.5    10.7           .997    4-2
: :     1999    SAS    NYK          16*      11.4    9.2            .996    4-1
: :     1996    CHI    SEA          8        17.6    6.7            .989    4-2
: :     1987    LAL    BOS          6        14.7    3.2            .979    4-2
: :     2000    LAL    IND          11       8.4     3.3            .978    4-2
: :     2001    LAL    PHI          0        20.8    3.8            .959    4-1
: :     2006    DAL    MIA          8        12.5    7.5            .933    2-4
: :     2003    SAS    NJN          11       9.1     9.0            .894    4-2
: :     2002    LAL    NJN          6        8.2     2.7            .866    4-0
: :     2007    SAS    CLE          8        7.0     5.7            .810    4-0
: :     *Prorated to an 82-game season
: :         （注：以這個公式來算馬刺今年奪冠率是88%）
: :     Still, nine of the 10 teams most heavily favored entering the
: :     Finals won the series, and none of the underdogs even forced a
: :     Game 7. The 2006 Finals are also the exception to the rule when it
: :      comes to favorites who had a better point differential in both
: :     the regular season and the conference playoffs. Those teams are
: :     11-1 in the past three decades.
: :         歷史觀之，10隊裡面只有一次被翻盤。
: :     Despite this overwhelming evidence, the Heat are only slight
: :     underdogs to win the series in Las Vegas. The most common line
: :     suggests the Spurs have a 57 percent chance to win. In part, the
: :     discrepancy can be traced to the popularity of Miami, as two-time
: :     defending champion. But it also surely reflects a belief we still
: :     haven't seen the best of the Heat, given Miami's tendency to play
: :     better when behind in series and in fourth quarters.
: :         不過即使如此，拉斯維加斯的賭盤中熱火只算小輸，
: :         賭盤開出馬刺57%贏。
: :         我想這跟熱火是b2b衛冕軍所以有很多信徒有關。
: :         當然，也有很多人相信熱火還沒發揮完全的實力，
: :         畢竟看起來當他們落後或是打第四節的時候，他們的實力最常展現。
: :     That might prove the case, because the Heat haven't yet been
: :     seriously challenged in the playoffs. But they'll have to raise
: :     their level considerably to match the way San Antonio is playing.
: :     Six times this postseason, the Spurs have beaten opponents by 20
: :     points more than an average team in the same situation. Miami has
: :     done that only once -- the closeout Game 6 against Indiana.
: :         或許真是如此，畢竟熱火在季後賽算是過得挺爽。
: :         但是他們要贏馬刺，就肯定要在提升一個檔次才行。
: :         馬刺在今年季後賽打爆對手6次（20分 up）
: :         熱火只有打爆一次。
: :     If the Heat are to win their third consecutive championship, it
: :     will mean defying three decades' worth of Finals trends.
: :         如果熱火今年要奪冠，他們就要逆天而行了。
: :         ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
: :         心得：熱火這兩年季後賽好像打破不少紀錄，希望維持下去 @@
: :               去年有印象的是季賽籃板最後一名卻拿冠軍，之前最爛好像是2x(x<5)。
: :               今年目前有的是季賽0-4，季後賽卻勝出。是第一支如此球隊。
: :               冠軍賽再來逆天一次！

但我站在熱火這邊！

http://i.imgur.com/p7tILaw.jpg


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→ Chalmers23:你害我期待了一下以為你也要來分析一下...............
→ peterman167:幹嘛分析，你不覺得他們每次持相反論點討論，然後
→ peterman167:基本上都沒有共識嗎XD我這種跳梁小丑出來幹嘛？
→ skunnyk:至少一邊有數據佐證論點，一邊一直在悲觀....
推 Chalmers23:怎麼是跳梁小丑A_A彼得曼很多中肯精闢的分析RRRR
推 MrHeat:那我站在彼德曼後面!
→ peterman167:替代役身份比賽跟比較少，所以自覺沒資格評論，數據
→ peterman167:部分也沒時間去整理分析啦哈
推 Chalmers23:我也想當替代役 彼得曼可以分析一下怎麼能當替代役嗎
→ peterman167:去申請轉服替代役阿，不難
推 amyisgood:雖然是火迷，但還是不覺得熱火會贏qq
推 q770219:害我期待了一下內文XDDD
推 nccuwade:XDD害我也期待
→ nccuwade:毛皇要分析一下
噓 pttfft:幹替代役真爽 怒噓            私信告訴我怎樣替代役好嗎??
推 nctucch17170:去年全部申請替代役的全上阿 今年沒機會了
→ Chalmers23:為什麼彼得曼你講的感覺很容易XD 我82年年底的有點衰誒
推 wilson78225:大家都有青春的罵ㄊㄟ
推 zenwu:你知道手機看廢文要滑很久嗎 下次體諒一下
噓 adad910:是因為認識版主所以可以發廢文跟注音文嗎?! ~~
→ peterman167:不是耶是因為我是火迷喔
噓 adad910:原來你是火迷~~ ^^
推 nctucch17170:沒必要互酸啦~ 都是火迷 看開一點~
噓 adad910:OK~既然推文大於噓文，代表這是被認同的了~~那就不打擾了~
推 liugayo:大家早點睡看比賽啦~  晚安
→ peterman167:原來有比我還丟臉的存在