清華大學、交通大學
統 計 學 研 究 所
專 題 演 講
題 目: A Semi-Parametric Approach for Estimating Life Expectancy of Patients
with A Specific Disease
主講人: 黃景祥 (中央研究院 統計科學研究所)
時 間: 96年4月27日（星期五）10：40 - 11：30
（上午10：20-10：40茶會於統計所821室舉行）
地 點: 清大綜合三館837室
Abstract
The life expectancy of patients with a specific disease is not only a major
concern of patients, but also essential to public health policies such as
estimation of disease burden, resource allocation and national health insurance
policy making. Two major determinants of disease specific life expectancy are
background life expectancy and disease-associated mortality. The life table
method can be used to calculate the life expectancy of a population at a given
age, but not for the life expectancy of patients with variable age-of-disease
onset. Parametric survival modeling is a popular approach. However, it is very
difficult, if not impossible, to take into account mathematically the two major
determinants of disease specific life expectancy with a specific functional
formula. Long-term estimate is often unreliable if there is a high rate of
right-censoring. We propose a relative survival extrapolation approach with
information borrowed from national vita statistics through Monte Carlo
simulation to estimate life expectancy and years of life loss for patients
with a specific disease. The proposed method has been evaluated and successfully
applied to real data collected in Taiwan, including patients with major cancers
, newly diagnosed HIV infection in the era of highly active antiretroviral
therapy and workers with permanent occupational disabilities. The estimated
life-long survival can also be applied to integrate with utility functions
such as quality of life to obtained expected quality-adjusted survival.
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※ 編輯: mangogogo 來自: 140.113.109.59 (04/26 12:34)