作者chanword (chanword)
看板NY-Yankees
標題[討論] Will A-Rod opt out of New York?
時間Thu Sep 20 00:55:31 2007
這篇是THT的文章,有點長,大家看看吧。
Will A-Rod opt out of New York?
by John Beamer
September 17, 2007
Last week I looked at what size and length of contract Andruw Jones might snare
given his struggles at the plate. The answer for those too lazy to read was
that he’d probably bag an 80/6 deal, which while well short of Alfonso Soriano
money is certainly nothing to thumb your nose at.
Of course, the Andruw contract saga will not dominate the Hot Stove like it
threatened to do at the start of the season. No. That honor will almost
certainly go to Alex Rodriguez, who is a veritable shoe-in for AL MVP even
if he were to go 0 for 40 to end the season.
Many column inches have and will continue to be penned by commentators of all
colors on this matter, including perhaps the most colorful of all (I’m looking
at you John Brattain這是Brattain討論A-Rod動向的文章
http://0rz.tw/d62Vj), but
no-one has yet taken a close look at the economics.
And that is what we’ll do today.
The current deal
According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, A-Rod collects a whopping $27 million
this year and a cumulative $81 million between 2008 and 2010 (again, $27
million per year). The Rangers are still on the hook for a slug of this
money—about $20 million over the next three years. Over the 2008-10 period
New York will pay $16 million to $18 million a year plus incentive bonuses.
A-Rod has an unrestricted opt out this year that he must exercise within 10
days of the end of the World Series. He also has conditional opt outs in 2008
and 2009 unless the Yankees fork out an additional $5 million on his demand—
you can see where Boras earned his bucks.
The equation is straightforward. The Yankees are getting a $25 million
ballplayer at the peak of his powers for $16 million a year. Heck, Carlos Lee
commands more lucre than that. Why wouldn’t A-Rod opt out?
In a nutshell he believes he can earn more money and with Scott Boras as your
agent then why not have a punt?
So how much is A-Rod likely to be worth over the next three years, and is the
opt out a sure thing?
2008 to 2010
To answer this question we need to establish a baseline performance. Here are
A-Rod’s stats since donning the hallowed pinstripes:
Year AB HR BA OBP SLG OPS+
2004 601 36 0.286 0.375 0.512 133
2005 605 48 0.321 0.421 0.61 167
2006 572 35 0.29 0.392 0.523 140
2007 523 52 0.319 0.425 0.671 190
Whichever way you cut the cake his performance has been impressive. Since
becoming a Yankee in 2004 his batting line has been a handy .303/.403/.579
and he has punched 171 balls deep into the seats. Even his widely derided 2006
saw him post a healthy OPS of .915—many players would be proud of that.
2007 has been a remarkable season for A-Rod, and barring a spectacular and
wholly unexpected collapse it will be his best season in the Big Apple. He has
54 (?好像是作者筆誤)home runs to his name next to a lofty OPS+ of 190. If you
tot it all up that equates to about six wins above average, or eight above
replacement. Add in a bit extra for glove work (though that is debatable as
you'll see later) and you can start to see how, at $4.5 million per free agent
win, he is justifying the zeros on his bank balance.
To work out whether his current deal is a bargain we need to consult some
projections. Here are THT’s and PECOTA’s forecasts:
THT AVG OBP SLG Fielding runs
2007 0.292 0.385 0.538 13
2008 0.285 0.377 0.517 13
2009 0.279 0.371 0.498 12
PECOTA
2007 0.288 0.385 0.531
2008 0.288 0.388 0.518
2009 0.279 0.373 0.499
2010 0.275 0.368 0.493
2011 0.276 0.367 0.495
To cut a long story short Rodriguez is batting well above expectations this
year. Part of that is a result of his annus horriblis in 2006 which bears the
most weight in the 2007 projections. This year has definitely seen a bump up
to (and possibly beyond) his long-term talent level. So how do we think his
performance will evolve?
We turn to our trusty weightings for the answer. As per the Andruw Jones
column last week, what I’ve done is create three fairly plausible scenarios
and then weight them by a probability estimate. The three scenarios are
outperform, average and decline.
Outperform assumes a continuation of his current performance. Technically that
would be an upgrade since it doesn’t assume an age adjustment. Average is the
combination of the THT and PECOTA 2008 numbers. Of course, the updated
projections that will be released in the New Year will be more bullish because
2007 will drive estimates up—more recent years of data carry a higher weight
for obvious reasons. Decline anticipates that A-Rod will falter badly. To make
life easier I’ve taken his 2010 PECOTA, the lowest of any forecast in the next
five years, which I’d suggest is the bottom end of 2008 expectations barring
injury.
A quick look at MGL’s UZR numbers suggests that A-Rod is mediocre with the
glove and may actually be a tad below average. Given that he may need to
compensate for Jeter’s lack of range we’ll call him an average third baseman,
which jives with the fans' scouting report (
http://0rz.tw/e2333 hence the
zeros under fielding in the table below).
Here is a summary of the three scenarios :
AVG OBP SLG WAA Fielding Total
Outperform 0.319 0.425 0.671 5.9 0 5.9
Average 0.287 0.383 0.518 2.7 0 2.7
Decline 0.275 0.368 0.493 1.8 0 1.8
What about the weightings? As you might imagine it is here we start to enter
the realm of speculation. A slump as severe as the decline scenario suggests
is very unlikely. Let’s call it 10% and split the rest between the other two
scenarios. That gives us an overall weighted line of .301/.402/.584.
Now it’s time to break out the salary calculator to work out what sort of
deal that represents. Remember the calculator works out estimated salary based
on wins above replacement, length of deal and estimated year on year age
decline (in wins). Assuming that A-Rod is 7.9, 4.7 and 3.8 wins above
replacement respectively (including fielding) and will suffer a 0.5 win
decline rate we get the following numbers:
Years\WAR 7.9 4.7 3.8
3 108 59 46
4 147 77 60
5 185 94 70
6 224 110 78
7 263 121 84
If we apply the weightings then we get:
Years $$$
3 79
4 106
5 132
6 158
7 181
What does it mean for the Yankees?
Our analysis says that if A-Rod were to sign a contract right now then based on
our assessment he'd sign a 80/3 deal. Hang on a cotton picking minute … that
is exactly what he is owed over the final three years of his existing deal. The
numbers suggest that signing a new deal is more or less a wash over the next
three years.
So why would A-Rod opt out? Okay that is a facetious question (I mean, why
wouldn't he?) as there are a slew of reasons.
First, A-Rod is having a career year. If some skunk-smoking GM decides to take
a punt based on 2007 representing true talent then A-Rod could get a much
richer deal. If one truly thinks that A-Rod is a 8 WAR player then a 3 year
deal is worth about $100m. I don’t think anyone believes that sort of deal is
possible but the potential upside is salivating.
Second, as A-Rod is at the peak of his powers he has the opportunity to sign a
longer term deal at more money. If he were to see out his contract he’d rake
in the $81 million to 2010 but if his form then dips (in, say, 2010) he may
have to take fewer years for less money. By signing now he can maximise his
long term earnings. Another factor is that the baseball wage market is entering
a post-CBA peak. We saw a similar trend back in the early part of the decade
when a flood of rich contracts were signed after the last CBA (including
A-Rod’s). There is a huge pot of money in the game and Alex wants an even
greater share.
Third, although A-Rod is raking in $27 big ones Texas is still stumping up a
good chunk of that loot. Scott Boras is canny enough to structure a deal that
can leverage the existing contract and tack a few years on the end for extra
money (as long as Uncle Bud gives the okay). That way the Yankees are paying
market value and Rodriguez is still benefiting from the Rangers’ idiocy when
they agreed to the original 10 year deal. If you’re a Texas fan the best thing
that can happen is for A-Rod to opt out. If he does then the Rangers have
financial facility to add another 2 WAR ball player to the roster and that is
nothing to be sniffed at.
Finally, perhaps he is fed up of Gotham life? Last year, especially, he was
hounded by a ravenous media for an inability to come through in the clutch
—although he answered his critics with a couple of spectacular clutch at-bats
in the early months of 2007. Also it didn’t help that the New York Post
plastered his tryst with a lady of the night over its front page as well as a
picture of his wife in a less than family friendly T-shirt. It isn’t a stretch
to imagine he simply wants out.
The likely outcome?
The popular view among the media is that A-Rod will opt out of his contract.
The facts seem to bear that out. In the current market Rodriguez will equal or
better his current salary over the next three years and should add both years
and dollars to that, which means he’ll be in the money.
If he does opt out the Yankees have pledged not try to resign him—under the
penny pinching era of Brian Cashman (it is all relative) they are keen not to
get into a protracted bidding war. Whether that is just chatter to try to
pressure him not to opt out or whether it is fact is at this point unclear.
If the Yankees hold to that position then it eliminates a serious bidder from
the race and may result in less aggressive offers from other teams, putting a
dent in his value.
Another factor is whether Rodriguez and Boras send signals as to which teams
he’d be prepared to accept a move to. A-Rod wants to win a ring and that will
restrict the teams he’d be prepared to sign for. However, he said the same
just before he signed for the Rangers and then he, err … uh … signed for
the Rangers. I guess we may find out just how much he wants that World Series
(unless he gets one this year). (嘖,世界冠軍戒指又不嫌多)
Common sense will probably prevail in the Big Apple. A-Rod is the star of the
team and for the first time since his trade he can walk the street of the city
without everyone clamouring for his head. While there was some truth to the
story that he was unsettled that was form related—and let’s face it even in
his so-called slump he was still one of the finest third basemen in the bigs.
The Yankees have the advantage that they will remain a contending team
(especially with some of the young arms coming through) and also have Texas
covering a huge portion of his salary. My best guess is that the two sides
will work something out that will see A-Rod spend the next five to seven years
in New York.
If he does sign another long term contract or extension with the Yankees don’t
be surprised to see Boras sneak in another opt out in three years time. As one
saga ends another will start. And the only winner from all these shenanigans,
A-Rod aside, is the media.
Watch this space.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FROM:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/will-a-rod-opt-out-of-new-york/
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 59.104.136.86
※ 編輯: chanword 來自: 59.104.136.86 (09/20 01:02)
推 lamoureux:排版辛苦了~ 09/20 01:52
推 njnw:結論:筆者認為可以看到AROD在紐約再待5-7年... 09/20 01:59
→ njnw:但3年後又可以看到BORA玩一次 .... 09/20 02:01
推 oralboralb:雖然看不太懂= = 可是阿肉的預測成績怎麼有點差? 09/20 02:15