[新聞] Slam Some Clam, X Man

[eelce (:p)]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/slam-some-clam-x-man

Slam Some Clam, X Man

by Dave Cameron - July 26, 2008 · Filed under Daily Graphings

Last night, the surging Yankees acquired Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from
the Pirates in exchange for four prospects (headlined by enigmatic Jose
Tabata). Nady is the big name, thanks to a stellar first half performance
that made him one of the better right-handed bats available this summer.

Looking at Nady from afar, we see a 29-year-old having a career year, thanks
in large part to a .367 batting average on balls in play, and we see a guy
who looks to be a classic fluke. However, there are some real underlying
reasons why Nady’s numbers are up significantly so far this year, and they
can’t be attributed to bloopers falling in.

Nady is making significantly more contact (16.8% K%, 19.7% career) and better
contact (26.5% LD%, 20.9% career) so far this year. When you hit the ball
hard and more often, a significant increase in batting average naturally
follows. Whether Nady can sustain a 26.5% LD% is questionable, but let’s not
confuse his early season performance with luck. He really has hit the tar out
of the baseball this year.

Will it continue? Marcel doesn’t think so. Going back to Sal Baxamusa’s
Quick-N-Dirty Marcel tool to get an updated projection for Nady for the rest
of the year, we see that it thinks he’ll hit .285/.344/.469 to finish out
the season. Compare that to the .273/.332/.451 mark it expected from him
before the year started, and you see that Marcel has factored in a slight
improvement, but overall, thinks Nady’s basically the same hitter he was
before the year started.

That isn’t to say a guy who can hit .285/.344/.469 doesn’t have value,
especially to a team like the Yankees where worrying about how much he’ll
get in arbitration this winter isn’t a big concern. But despite the fact
that Nady’s earned his .330 batting average so far this year, he’s simply
not a true talent .300 hitter. I’m sure the Yankees know this, though, and
they’re not expecting Nady to keep hitting like he is now.

The question is, though, will they be happy if he starts hitting like ‘07
Nady again? Because Marcel thinks that’s pretty likely.

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推 ShouHayasi:才剛來就被唱衰了嗎
推 ByKiss:看來Nady不是很被看好XD  大松井的暫時替代品嗎
→ siliver:不是說不被看好,而是說別認為他還能維持上半季的好成績.
→ siliver:能打出他的生涯水準,對洋基就是很大的幫助了.
→ ByKiss:我想..即使將來不像今年上半季一樣爆發 至少會比菜鳥們好
→ ByKiss:雖然幾個rookie都很拼命XD
推 siliver:對啊,可惜他們沒辦法像RP們表現那麼優秀,先回3A磨鍊吧.
推 kauw:只想用來打工嗎 反正也沒損失多少農場  可惜沒換到BAY
推 coronach:他生涯也有average左右了 比牛奶弟穩一點...
推 shineyoung:不好意思 請問 另兩支還未確定要到海盜的小聯盟球員是?
→ shineyoung:不知道後來確定了沒? 因為看之前有大大說還未指定?