Team Offense, New York Yankees

[abc12812 ()]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031309.php


The series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. I plug the
probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in
the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:

    * Best lineup: 5.72 runs per game
    * Probable lineup: 5.64 runs per game
    * Worst lineup: 5.42 runs per game
    * Regressed lineup: 5.05 runs per game

The Yankees scored 4.87 runs per game in 2008.

Brett Gardner is having a better spring than Melky Cabrera, but Melky
projects slightly better for the regular season so substituting Gardner into
the lineup makes little difference. We do want to see what happens with Cody
Ransom, however, since A-Rod will miss the start of 2009.

Ransom's projection is pretty good, .351 OBA, .450 slugging. Most teams would
be happy to get that from a third baseman. The Yankees best lineup drops to
5.52 runs per game with Cody, and with him batting sixth it would be 5.44. So
the Yankees would drop 0.2 runs per game with Ransom instead of Rodriguez,
but they would still score a high number of runs per game.

The real danger to the Yankees, however, is that Rodriguez is the start of
the injuries, not the end. Damon, Jeter, Posada and Matsui are all older
players projected to put up good stats. Injuries to any or all will put the
Yankees closer to their 2008 level. Swisher gives them a little depth in the
outfield, so they could probably handle one outfielder and one infielder out
at the same time.

So this is a high scoring team if they can stay healthy. With a likely
improved pitching staff, anything above five runs per game should put them in
an excellent position to make the playoffs.

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◆ From: 140.112.5.3
推 Belladonaa:926...
推 rainingdayz:健康第一
推 OoyaoO:Ransom的預測會不會太高了 真有0.8+的OPS會到現在還是個隨
→ OoyaoO:時可以被換掉的替補嗎？
推 OoyaoO:去年在極少的PA下打出OPS+170的成績 生涯成績來看.351的OBA
→ OoyaoO:還算合理 可是我覺得SLG.450真的給太高了
推 pikachu123:不是不可能,老來俏阿 天佑洋基!
推 conan805:我比較好奇RANSOM要打第幾棒:)
推 molukino:8? 6?
推 fch010720:的確給太高了，不過投手的進步有希望短期內影響不致太大