推 NewPassat:看實際比賽我還是覺得Molina超強....@@" 03/15 00:58
→ OoyaoO:但是二哥的防守不足以彌補他打擊是個自殺棒的事實 囧rz 03/15 01:04
: 2. 但plus/minus system的defense run用的是預期得分矩陣(expected run matrix),
: 計算每個守備機會, 完成守備野手可以省下多少分數, 所以Jeter是多丟了8分, 在游
: 擊手中排名31。
其實不是這樣的 如果有看到後面
http://sabernomics.com/sabernomics/FieldingBibleVII_Excerpt.pdf
After repeating this procedure for every play, we
found that there was still plenty of “noise” in the run
values that had nothing to do with the fielder’s defensive
ability. For example, converting a difficult play with two
outs and the bases loaded could be worth two full runs,
but the same play with two outs and nobody on was
worth a tenth of that, at no fault of the fielder. This is a
situational bias that the fielder has little control over.
(Unless you want to start arguing about “clutch fielding”.
We’ll save that argument for another time!)
To adjust for this bias, we took a look at how many
runs each plus/minus point was worth. How many runs
was Chase Utley’s +46 plays worth? At second base, it
turned out that the average plus/minus point was worth
.76 runs. That’s 35 plus/minus runs saved for Utley in
2008.
應該沒所謂的Clutch fielding
所以Jeter還是 -12(play)*0.76=-8runs
還有Molina沒那麼神啦
RAB弄錯了照這PDF附的2008是 +12runs
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