Re: [洋基] Player A and Player B

[abc12812 ()]

Spring Battles: Nick Swisher vs. Xavier Nady
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/25/809320/spring-battles-nick-swishe


Let me preface this post by presenting one reason the Yankees get so much
press: they have so many good players and have more high-profile decisions to
make.  When you're the biggest player on the free agent market, your team is
involved in the discussion for any free agent.  When you have a team full of
superstars, your team is involved any time one of them is in the news.  And
when you have competition for an outfield spot between two players that many
other teams would easily slide into their starting lineup, well, it's
interesting.  I get as sick of talking about the Yankees as anybody, but
stating that the media has a Yankee bias is missing part of the point.

That being said, Joe Girardi -- and perhaps brian Cashman -- has a decision
to make about the Yankees starting right fielder for 2009.  Both options are
solid, but let's take a look at what the data has to say about Xavier Nady
vs. Nick Swisher.


Offense

Nady obviously had the better 2008 season, especially looking at the
traditional stats, and 2008 is all we tend to remember. He hit .305 with 27
homeruns and 97 RBI compared to a .219 average for Swisher with 24 homeruns
and only 64 RBI.  Nady also holds the edge in the OBP/SLG department,
.357/.510 vs .332/.410.  Swisher was still nearly a league-average hitter,
however, even with his awful average, at just two runs below average.  Nady
was quite good, at +23 runs.

Looking purely at 2008 data to projected 2009 performance is short-sighted,
though.  A good projection takes into account at least three years of past
data, weighting recent performance more heavily.  CHONE's a good system and
sees 2008 going like this:

Swisher: .247/.360/.454, +13 runs per 150
Nady: .273/.327/.456, +3 runs per 150

2008 was the outlier for both players, which is a better talking point for
Swisher (+21, +18, -2 wRAA from 2006 to 2008) than Nady (+2, +6, +23).  CHONE
gives Swisher a one win edge on offense, which is significant.  Let's move on
to...


Defense

Swisher's the only guy with a defensive reputation, and it's not a good one.
 Heck, just ask White Sox fans how they felt about his range in center field
last year.  But the good news is that right field is a lot easier to play
than center field, and UZR actually doesn't think his 2008 performance was
completely incompetent, pegging his play at -11 runs per 150 games, about the
same rating he earned the year before with Oakland.  Giving him the ten run
bump for switching to a corner spot would make him an average right fielder.
 From his time spent in corner spots throughout his career, he rates as +8
runs there.  What might be do for a projection?  Something in the +5 run
range seems ok, maybe a bit lower

As for Nady, he's spent the large majority of his time in the outfield in
right field, posting a career -1 runs per 150 UZR.  His 100 innings in left
put him at +2 runs per 150 and his time in center field, well, has been
awful.  A projection?  Average seems pretty obvious.  Again, Swisher holds,
an edge, but it's probably no more than half a win.


Overall

Let's see, Swisher projects to be ten runs better with the bat and half that
in the field.  That's approximately a win and a half the Yankees could gain
in the standings by starting Swisher over Nady.  Seems like a no-brainer,
right?  Of course, Nady seems to have the inside track on the job.

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