[新聞] World Series seems to be headed to New York, St. Louis

[charlie01 (???)]

目前放在ESPN體育網MLB區的headline，可以說是相當自嗨的一篇文章，戰點很大 XD
不過有大概分析了一些季後賽contenders的隱憂和近況，就看有沒有人要翻譯了


 World Series seems to be headed to New York, St. Louis 

By Steve Berthiaume, ESPN  September 6, 2009

We're into the second week of September. If a contender is about to nosedive,
that free fall is already under way, and simply hasn't grown dire enough for us
to notice yet. As a great man, our own Chris Berman, once said, and as you'll
hear us occasionally repeat on "Baseball Tonight," "We knew … but we didn't
know …"


So, let's be proactive, put it on record before the September swoon.
Tim Kurkjian asked me out of the blue while we were watching games this weekend,
"Who makes it to the World Series?"


I said, "Cardinals vs. Yankees." Think about your World Series contenders; who
really scares you come October? It illustrates just how difficult it is to be
great for 162 games and THEN play the season's most critical games.


Let's start with the defending champion Phillies. Closer Brad Lidge is still
struggling to make saves less exciting (or finish them at all), and Ryan Madson
can't seem to record any big outs late in games, which isn't helping either.


Cliff Lee? He's given up 12 earned runs in eight innings over his past two
starts. Which Cole Hamels will show up in October? The ace that went 3-0 in May
and 3-1 in July, or the guy who pitched too many innings last season and went
0-2 in April, 1-2 in June and 0-3 in August? Philadelphia is still really good,
but there's an uncertainty there.


It's hard to believe in the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw hasn't won a game since
July 18 (he's 0-3 with six no-decisions). He simply throws too many pitches and
leaves innings that have to be picked up by an overworked Dodgers bullpen. Hold
that thought, because that bullpen needs to be talked about.


Randy Wolf has been the Dodgers' best starter all season, but at one point
recently, HALF of Wolf's starts had ended with no-decisions. You can see Wolf
stepping up with some clutch October starts. He eats innings and is the only
guy on that staff who consistently goes deep into games, which gets us back to
that bullpen. It may be completely gassed by the time the postseason arrives.
Tim Kurkjian points out that in the past 12 years only one team, the
'07 Rockies, advanced to the World Series with a bullpen that finished the
season in the top 10 in innings pitched. As of now, only the Padres' bullpen
has worked more innings than the Dodgers' bullpen. L.A. could be a
three-and-out in October.


Angels? I love watching the Angels and the way they play with Chone
Figgins, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis flying around the bases, with the great
story of Kendry Morales' breakout season and Vlad Guerrero hitting pitches that
bounce off the ground for home runs. But in the postseason, who starts the
Angels' "must-win" playoff game? Which Angels starters scare you in a short
series? Do you see that guy on the Angels' staff right now? I don't. What about
Brian Fuentes as your "lights-out" postseason closer? Really?


The Red Sox pieces just don't seem to fit together very well. Look up Josh
Beckett's past four starts. What happened? He's 0-1 with three no-decisions and
has given up at least five runs in all four starts and at least seven in three
of the four. The most reliable guy in Boston's bullpen (Billy Wagner) just
showed up. Manny Delcarmen's stuff is electric and his numbers tell you he's
solid. But watch him pitch; he can't get anybody out. Jonathan Papelbon
seemingly needs to load the bases every time he comes in simply in order to
concentrate. There are too many nights when Boston just looks old, tired, slow,
frustrated and beatable.


The Tigers' Justin Verlander is what aces are supposed to be. He goes deep into
games -- no "five and dives" from Verlander, whose mound presence always
suggests he is taking personal responsibility for the entire nine innings. He
doesn't look back over his shoulder toward the bullpen or to the dugout for the
manager to come bail him out. He throws even harder as he goes deeper into
games. Miguel Cabrera is an MVP candidate and Brandon Inge is what all baseball
players are supposed to be, but watch the Tigers' bullpen close games. Next.


That leaves the Yankees and Cardinals. That's your World Series. Yankees
hitters are killing the ball. The way they've developed their bullpen into a
true corps of reliable relievers will become one of the most important stories
of this season. Andy Pettitte has been very good and CC Sabathia could win the
Cy Young. The Cardinals? Find a weakness.


Nobody ever said baseball predictions were easy. Back in March, our crack
"Baseball Tonight" research guru, Mark Simon, put together a 2009 predictions
sheet and 49 people who work on "Baseball Tonight" all made their season
predictions.


Of the 49 participants; 24 had the Indians winning the AL Central. Only seven
had the Tigers. Ouch. Some of the National League predictions went even more
haywire. A staggering 43 of the 49 staff members predicted the Cubs would win
the NL Central title, while only six people picked the Cardinals. As for the
Mets, 23 of the predictors saw an NL East title for them in 2009. Baseball is a
funny game. As the great man once said, "We knew … but we didn't know …"

--
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◆ From: 140.112.211.190
推 Aldousphyx:有他的一些合理論點 但是棒球實在太難預測...
推 OoyaoO:看到Lidge那邊就笑了XD 費城真的打算季後賽繼續讓他關門?
推 cocochris:道奇那段的最後一句是代表甚麼?
→ charlie01:那句意思是因為牛棚工作量太大 LAD可能會在季後賽首輪
→ charlie01:就以直落三(three-and-out)打包回家了
推 unicotexalex:http://tinyurl.com/2qur73  幫補連結
推 FatBearInn:記得過去幾年也上過類似的榜結果...  打了才知道
推 cocochris:如果對紅雀真的很可能被直落三  LAD下半季的打擊..