推 leddy:就說是Chone Projection...眼鏡沒帶嗎... 12/23 15:40
→ leddy:12月18日都update了...還在用舊資料 12/23 15:41
→ appshjkli:揪咪^.< 12/23 15:41
你那個可能是調過park的
Matsui R150 PA
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/freeagent2010.htm
12 485
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/LAA2010.htm
13 485
推 greengreen42:WAR4.5M正尻!! 12/23 15:42
推 iverlon:為什麼是正"尻" XDD 12/23 15:44
推 cloudyst:勇士不是要跟棒子 雪莉<-->麥肯 再搶一次好了 12/23 15:47
推 brokenleg:反串文看多也很累.............還是你是認真的!!!?? 12/23 15:48
推 jayin07:.... 12/23 15:53
※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 59.104.146.19 (12/23 15:56)
推 leddy:所以你的結論是猴子簽完後松井從WAR 1.4下降成0.6... 12/23 16:00
→ cardfat:你0.6怎麼來的阿 12/23 16:01
→ leddy:身價馬上從6.3M掉到剩下2.7M嗎? 黃金法則"4.5M"真好用... 12/23 16:01
→ leddy:用算的... 12/23 16:01
推 Sechslee:沒了條紋聖衣 WAR下降完全是可以預期的 12/23 16:02
→ leddy:不會算的話我可教你...不用花4.5M... 12/23 16:02
→ cardfat:教一下 12/23 16:06
推 leddy:把excel打開...研究一下WAR的公式套進去...WAR就出來了... 12/23 16:07
→ cardfat:算了晚點在看 我覺得你虎爛成份很大 12/23 16:13
推 leddy:光你說唬爛這句可能要花"4.5M", 去研究wOBA, WAA是什麼? 12/23 16:15
→ leddy:Base Running Value, Position Value又是什麼... 12/23 16:16
看了以後你根本搞錯了
Matsui跑到天使球場變0.6WAR的DH玩笑開大了
最好天使球場的替代等級就不用變喔 (噗)
Most of the columns are self explanatory. The R150 column is linear weights
runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what
the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league,
not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in.
直接看算法
http://apps.baseballprojection.com/Blog/?e=40316&d=
11/23/2009&s=Value%20of%20Chone%20Figgins
I have him as a +4 runs per season hitter, with a rate stat line of
276/375/367. His baserunning has been worth 5-7 runs per year from 2005 to
2008. Baseball Prospectus has him at another +4 runs for 2009. The average
is about +5.5 per year, given age I'll estimate +4 for 2010. His defense,
according to Fangraphs UZR, has been excellent the last 2 years as a 3rd
baseman. A projection puts him about a +5 fielder. Replacement level is 20
runs below average per 150 games.
Add it all up, and he's 35 runs per year above replacement per 150 games.
Since I have him projected to play 137 (he's had some injuries here and
there) that gets knocked down to 3.2 wins. On a 1 year deal and 4.4 million
per win, that is worth 14 million.
Chone Figgins
4(打)+4(跑)+5(守)+20(替代等級)+2.5/162*150(3B)=35.3
換成137場 ==> 35.3/150*132=31
1 year deal and 4.4 million ==>14M
其實後面還有複數年的有興趣再看下去吧
回到Mastui換了球場R150才差1影響很小的 (13or12)
13(打)-1(跑:平均4.6 Matsui 3.8)+0 (守 DH=0)-15/162*150(DH)+20(替代等級)
13-1+0-13.9+20=18.1 (150場625PA) Matsui實際是projections PA 485
18.1/625*485=14.056
噓 siliver:跟他客氣什麼啊??搞不清楚就說人虎爛然後澇跑 XD 12/23 16:16
→ leddy:無知就是沒去計算就說人唬爛..還硬推個4.5M計算法則... 12/23 16:16
→ siliver:光看他來來去去就只會4.5M就讓人想笑了 XD 12/23 16:18
噓 A1an:斷句看得好痛苦 12/23 16:21
噓 TRAP:"算了晚點在看 我覺得你虎爛成份很大" ?! 12/23 16:58
→ freshbox7:正"尻"是什麼阿?....你自創新詞? 12/23 17:00
噓 b104092031: 12/23 17:39
噓 ByKiss:先教你那個字是夯 然後噓你沒料還說人唬爛 12/23 17:40
噓 poning:小尻正夯 12/23 17:47
噓 eigawa:掰嚕 12/23 18:02
噓 deathsman:我夯你的尻 12/23 18:06
※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 61.59.235.35 (12/23 19:27)
噓 MonsterBacon:小麦ちゃんのお尻這系列我超愛的......XDD 12/23 19:01
噓 leddy:最好WAR是這樣算啦...柯柯... 12/23 19:35
→ cardfat:你天使球場的替代等級怎麼設的阿 科科 12/23 19:38
→ cardfat:酷斯拉超慘的換個球場就變0.6WAR了 12/23 19:40
推 leddy:chone projection都給你數字了...你不是很愛project war 12/23 20:03
→ leddy:wOBA 只有0.344的DH你算給看會等於..WAR 1.4 12/23 20:05
要調Park ok阿
你調了酷斯拉的成績
替代等級怎麼能不調
難道替代等級球員對天使球場魔法免疫喔
而且減少的話也不會10runs為1win
會變8~9.x分耶
多麻煩的
噓 leddy:柯柯天使球場的替代等級...你還真會創造數字... 12/23 20:24
→ leddy:那個明明是守備位置的替代數字... 12/23 20:25
沒救了
是沒看到這句喔
Replacement level is 20 runs below average per 150 games.
守位是POS
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/freeagent2010.htm
3B是2.5 DH是-15
fangraphs用的也差不多
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four
the expected value of a replacement level player is about negative 20 runs
per 600 PA
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three
Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 61.59.235.35 (12/23 20:50)
推 leddy:天使球場替代等級...Please define it! Please!! 12/23 20:55
噓 Sechslee:哈哈哈哈 12/23 20:57
→ appshjkli:喔～～～～喔喔～～～喔喔～～～基基～～ 12/23 20:59
→ bounds:北佬就是有你這種球迷才讓人更討厭 12/24 00:09
→ waitla:我現在才知道連球場都有替代等級 replacement level park 12/24 00:45
噓 fred0780:哀 12/24 14:44