[討論] Future Shock March 8, 2010

[numblife ()]

Future Shock

Organizational Rankings, Part 1&2

by Kevin Goldstein

30. St. Louis Cardinals
Last Year’s Ranking: 9

Why They Are Here: Their recent drafts aren't awful per se, but they're
certainly boring and lacking as far as star power. The graduation of a few
prospects and the trading away of even more (which happens when you are a
perennial contender) leavse the system almost solely riding on the hopes for
Shelby Miller's right arm.

Where They Will Be Next Year: Either here, or darn close to here. Their
first-round pick doesn't come until the 25th selection, so there’s no star
power coming from there either, not unless someone falls into their lap. If
Miller collapses for some reason, there's nobody here worthy of top-prospect
recognition.


29. Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year’s Ranking: 28

Why They Are Here: Trades have gutted the system which, combined with the
fact that top prospect Jarrod Parker will miss the entire year, means there's
no help coming from the system anytime soon. After Brandon Allen, who has
some highly divergent scouting reports himself, there's not a good hitter in
the system who isn't at least three years away.

Where They Will Be Next Year: Up, and possibly significantly. While I haven't
gone back to check exactly, I'm nearly sure that with eight of their Top 11
coming from the previous year's draft, Arizona has set some kind of record,
and they just need a few of those players to step forward for the
organization to look much better 12 months from now.


28. Houston Astros
Last Year’s Ranking: 30

Why They Are Here: They have utterly no depth whatsoever. Recent drafts have
changed the top of their prospect lists, but the players from six to 11
wouldn't even sniff most team's lists. When two middle relief prospects earn
single-digit rankings, that's never a good sign.

Where They Will Be Next Year: Should be up a bit. The eighth overall pick in
June certainly helps, but what was once a downright embarrassing collection
of talent is making slow, steady progress since the addition of scouting
director Bobby Heck.


27. Chicago White Sox
Last Year’s Ranking: 24

Why They Are Here: In some ways it's for good reasons, as Gordon Beckham
developed so fast that he's not eligible any more. Still, after that, things
fall off quite quickly, as we can dream on Jared Mitchell all day long, but
he and outfielder Jordan Danks are the only position prospects who would also
rank on other teams' lists.

Where They Will Be Next Year: Could go either way. Mitchell is a boom or bust
type, as is outfielder Trayce Thompson, while third baseman Dayan Viciedo is
looking like he might fall into the same category. They'll likely lose top
prospect Daniel Hudson, and possibly their third-best player, Tyler Flowers,
tio major-league promotions, so somebody has to step up.


26. New York Yankees
Last Year’s Ranking: 13

Why They Are Here: Jesus Montero is an utter stud, but no other player in the
system even sniffed the Top 101. The upper-level pitchers have low ceilings,
and after Montero, there's not a hitter in the system close to contributing.

Where They Will Be Next Year: Should be up. The Yankees know how to turn late
first-round picks into much better players, while they also tend to find
great talent in Latin America, and there are a number of very young players
in the Top 11 who could take a step forward. If Montero graduates to the big
leagues however, it will be tough to make up for that loss.


15. New York Mets
Last Year’s Ranking: 18

Why They Are Here: The system is on the upswing, thanks to a nice group
coming from the international market and, for the first time in a while, a
draft class (2009) that looks like it will pay some dividends. With four Top
101 prospects and a three-star list that runs into the early teens, there's
room for optimism here.

Where They Will Be Next Year: The Mets could add another Top 50-type with the
seventh overall pick in the draft, their highest slot since 2004, and
fourth-highest pick in the last 25 years. Top prospects like Jenrry Mejia and
Ike Davis have more of a 2011 timetable, so Fernando Martinez is the only top
prospect likely to lose his eligibility this season.


14. Detroit Tigers
Last Year’s Ranking: 27

Why They Are Here: While they are young and risky, for pure upside few teams
can provide a one-two punch as promising as Jacob Turner and Casey Crosby,
while Scott Sizemore is a solid big league-ready second baseman. The power
arms continue from there, and while the system lacks depth, there are still
some interesting power bats at the upper levels.

Where They Will Be Next Year: The same at best, but likely down. Turner and
Crosby have to live up to expectations, as Sizemore will lose eligibility,
and the signing of Jose Valverde cost the team its first-round pick in June.
There's just not a ton of upside among the hitting crop.


13. San Francisco Giants
Last Year’s Ranking: 6

Why They Are Here: This is one of the most difficult systems to rank. One has
to give them credit for having two five-star, big league-ready prospects in
Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, but while there's depth here, the star
quality falls off quickly after the big two.
Where They Will Be Next Year: Down, and down significantly if both Posey and
Bumgarner get enough big-league time. Unless Zach Wheeler pitches as well as
expected, there's not an obvious candidate to step into the team's
best-prospect spot.


12. Washington Nationals
Last Year’s Ranking: 29

Why They Are Here: Having the top prospect in baseball sure helps, but it
doesn't end there, as Derek Norris is one of the best catching prospects in
the game, and Drew Storen is a nearly ready big-league closer. Beyond those
three, there are plenty of players who at least have the tools to create a
brighter blip on a scout's radar.

Where They Will Be Next Year: Unquestionably down, but that's what happens
when you lose the top prospect in the game. Washington picks first again in
June, and that selection will almost assuredly be the system's new top
prospect, but nobody in this year's draft can replace Strasburg.


11. San Diego Padres
Last Year’s Ranking: 25

Why They Are Here: The 2008 draft class looks like a potential monster at
this point, while righty Simon Castro took a massive step forward last year
and they found that crazy tools/crazy upside prospect the system has been
lacking for years with Donavan Tate. New general manager Jed Hoyer inherits a
system where most everything is suddenly moving in the right direction.

Where They Will Be Next Year: All of their prospects should be around next
year, and the club picks ninth overall in June. They should be in the top
half once again, with a solid chance to move into the single digits.




Woooops....baby.

You forgot something....

Nationals got "Wang"...and...

U should adjust their ranking ....!


from:BP

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 114.39.58.104
※ 編輯: numblife        來自: 114.39.58.104        (03/10 14:27)
→ jayin07     :lol
推 hitler941627:我們最近的新秀排名真是慘烈......
推 Sechslee    :科科
推 Loveandpeace:最近一批都升光了
推 Tenka       :是交易掉了 Austin Jackson , Arodys Vizcaino
→ Tenka       :這兩隻都有前50 結果現在只剩Montero撐場面
→ TrueTears   :期待我們的四隻捕手吧 XD
→ appshjkli   :不意外,A-Jax電風扇;Vizcaino還太遠;Montero比較重要
推 jdtrue      :A-Jax好像要在老虎扛1st bat  祝他發展順利~
→ numblife    :btw..Nomar宣布退休了 昔日三大SS剩兩隻都在我們家XD
推 krara       :Montero有養起來就賺到了。
→ appshjkli   :給他打個160場看看會不會有個200K
推 ninini      :我們有A-Rod接班人啊
→ numblife    :郭阜林表示:
→ numblife    :怎麼覺得洋基有在收集攻擊型捕手的癖好.....XDD
→ jdtrue      :哪一隊沒有蒐集攻擊型捕手的偏好...orz
推 upscom      :不然 要收集衝撞型的嗎?
推 mikachen    :衝撞型XDDD
→ sneak       : 不意外,A-Jax電風 https://daxiv.com