作者RollingWave (Lost in the Dark)
看板NY-Yankees
標題Re: [討論] Five questions: New York Yankees
時間Thu Apr 1 21:45:45 2010
※ 引述《appshjkli (貓肉球)》之銘言：
: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-new-york-yankees5/
: Five questions: New York Yankees
洋基五問
: by Dan Turkenkopf
: April 01, 2010
: 2009 was a obviously a very successful year for the Yankees. The offseason
: spending spree, which netted the team Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J.
: Burnett, paid off big time, with 103 regular-season wins and a 27th World
: Series title.
2009 對洋基來說當然是個很成功的球季。 在前一個冬天砸下大錢簽下Teixiera /
Sabathia / Burnett 的投資立刻就有了很高的報酬， 那就是個103勝的球季外加第27座
世界冠軍。
: While last season's roster churn was fueled largely by free agent movement,
: this winter's mostly involved some big trades. Sure, Johnny Damon and Hideki
: Matsui came off the books, but the really big events were the deals that
: netted the team Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez.
前一年的冬天最主要的名單異動都是來自自由球員市場，而這個冬天則是以交易為主。
沒錯，Damon 跟 Matsui 兩人的合約到期了，但最重要的變動是來自於獲得Granderson
跟Vazquez 的交易。
: Despite the recent success, the Yankees have faced a number of questions this
: offseason. Joe Girardi already answered the related questions of the fifth
: starter and Joba Chamberlain's immediate role, while questions as to Derek
: Jeter's future are unanswerable until after the season. Instead of providing
: yet another voice to the chorus singing answers to those questions, we'll
: focus here on some that may be less overdone, but no less important.
儘管他們去年非常成功，洋基還是有面臨一些問題，Giradi 已經必須選擇了誰是五號跟
Joba 今年的定位，而Jeter的未來需要等到球季後才能定案。 這些已經談到爛的問題就
先放一邊，讓我們來看一些同樣重要但是還沒被過度解讀的問題。
: 1. Is the offense susceptible to left-handed pitching?
1. 洋基會怕左投嗎?
: Perhaps the Yankees biggest offseason acquisition was Curtis Granderson from
: the Detroit Tigers. Granderson will play center field and is currently
: projected to bat seventh. The biggest knock on Granderson throughout his
: career has been his inability to hit left-handed pitching. As Matt Klaassen
: points out over at Fangraphs, Granderson's career .358 wOBA breaks down to
: .380 against right-handers and .270 against lefties. In general, his entire
: offensive game degrades against lefties. He walks less, strikes out more, and
: hits for a lot less power. And this has been consistent for a while. Still,
: as Klaassen argues, that doesn't mean Granderson is expected to show that
: large of a platoon split going forward. Using the findings of The Book, he
: estimates that Granderson's projected wOBA against southpaws as .311.
洋基冬天最大的動作之一就是換到Granderson, Granderson 大概會先發第七棒的中外野手
。 他的生涯到目前為止最受批評的就是他打不到左投， Fangraphs 的 Matt Klaassen
指出Granderson 生涯的 .358 wOBA 可以分為 .380 vs 右投 .270 vs 左投。 他幾乎整
體的表現都是面對左投差， 保送變少，三振變多，砲瓦下降，但是Klaassen 認為這不代
表Granderson 接下來的表現也會有如此誇大的差距，他根據他的研究認為Granderson 愈
期對上左投的 wOBA 大約會是.311
: So Granderson is still somewhat of a black hole against lefties, but not
: likely as bad as he's shown so far. What about some of the other Yankees?
: There are three other lefties in the starting lineup and three switch
: hitters. Brett Gardner has shown a small platoon split in his short career,
: while Nick Johnson has demonstrated a small reverse split. Teixeira is a
: little bit better from the right side than the left, as is Nick Swisher,
: while Jorge Posadais about the same from both sides of the plate.
Granderson 無疑會是個對上左投的弱點，但是大概不會像到目前為止的那麼離譜。
那其他人呢? 打線中還有三個左打跟三個左右開弓的打者，Gardner目前面對左投只有
略差一些，Johnson 打左投還略好一些。 Teixeira跟Swisher都是 從右邊打略好一些。
而Posada 幾乎是完全一樣。
: The bench will likely have Randy Winn and Marcus Thames, who generally hit
: left-handers well (although Winn was horrendous against them in 2009). And
: Thames may see some time in a platoon with Gardner in left field, which would
: help the offense against lefties (although hurt the defense).
板凳上有Winn 跟 Thames, 兩個人通常都很擅長打左投(不過Winn 去年奇爛無比)。Thames
可能在面對左投的時後會分攤一些Gardner的時間，那會對左投的打擊有幫助(但是守備
就..)
: All in all, despite being a little bit left-handed-heavy, there are enough
: weapons in the lineup that it won't get completely shut down by left-handed
: pitching. And while the AL East has some good left-handed pitchers in Jon
: Lester, David Price, and Brian Matusz, there really aren't that many lefties
: that the Yankees will see on a regular basis.
整體來說，雖然他們左打偏多但是整個打線的武器多到他們並不會碰到左投就整個熄火，
美東雖然有像是Lester / Price / Matusz 這些利害的左投但是除此之外洋基並不會常常
碰到。
: 2. Will home runs continue to fly out of Yankee Stadium?
洋基球場會繼續是個全壘打天堂嗎?
: The early part of 2009 saw a tremendous number of home runs at the brand-new
: Yankee Stadium. The first months of the season saw many complain about the
: number of balls reaching the seats, with Peter Gammons going so far as to
: call it "one of the biggest jokes in baseball." Many people began to blame
: the weather patterns of the new stadium. The story was big enough news to get
: weather provider AccuWeather in on the discussion.
去年開季時在新的洋基球場一堆球飛出場外，第一個月就出現很多人抱怨怎麼這麼多球
是全壘打。Peter Gammons 甚至說這個球場是個笑話。 很多人開始怪球場內的風流，
甚至連accuweather 的人都跑出來加入討論。
: The conclusion? It was more likely the fences rather than any wind tunnels
: causing the home run explosion in right field. But still questions linger.
: As Yankees blog River Ave. Blues explains, however, the new Yankee Stadium
: was actually a mild pitchers' park in 2009. While there were a lot of home
: runs hit, offense in general was reduced. So the "biggest joke" turned out to
: be missing most of the punchline.
結論? 大概還是全壘打牆太近太矮而不是風流的問題。 但是River ave Blues 這個blog
發現區年洋基球場根本是個略偏投手的球場。 雖然很多全壘打但是整體的得分反而略降。
所以這個大笑話看來言之過早。
: And what's more, Greg Rybarczyk of HitTracker found in The Hardball Times
: Baseball Annual 2010 that Yankees pitchers managed to reduce the number of
: fly balls opposing batters hit to right field as the season progressed.
: So 2010 may see a number of balls flying into the right field seats, but if
: 2009 is any indication, there will be a lot more from Yankees hitters than
: from visiting players.
Hittracker 的 Rybarczyk 在hardballtimes 2010 中也指出洋基的投手在季中逐漸的能
讓對手減少打到右外野的飛球。 所以2010 大概還是會看到不少全壘打但是如果2009的數
子可靠的話那恐怕洋基球員打出去的會比對手多不少。
: 3. Will Jesus Montero ever don the pinstripes?
3. Jesus Montero 會穿上條紋聖衣嗎?
: For those of you who aren't aware, Jesus Montero is the best position player
: prospect the Yankees have had in a long time—probably since Derek Jeter.
: Well, that's not entirely true, since Montero is somewhat of a man without a
: position.
如果你還沒聽說， Montero 是洋基自Jeter以來最好的野手新秀。 但是問題是他是個沒
有守備位子的人。
: Nominally, he's a catcher—which makes him the best hitting catching prospect
: since Mike Piazza. The problem is that he may be worse behind the plate than
: Piazza was. And Piazza appeared to be pretty close to the line of "as bad as
: possible but still allowed to catch." So even though the Yankees would seem
: to have a need for a young catcher with Jorge Posada getting up there in age,
: Montero's future remains cloudy.
理論上他是個捕手，可以說是Mike Piazza 以來最恐怖的打擊捕手新秀，但問題是他的守
備可能比Piazza 更爛， 而Piazza 已經非常接近球隊能容忍的最爛限度了。 所以即使
洋基明顯得快要需要新的捕手，Montero 能不能接手還是個問號。
: Most analysts believe he will shed the tools of ignorance before too much
: longer—most likely moving to first base or designated hitter. But the
: Yankees have Teixeira locked up long term at first and, with an aging roster,
: will likely want the flexibility to rotate players through the DH spot.
大多人認為他恐怕一定得轉1B or DH, 但是洋基已經鎖死Teixeira 很久而他們需要輪打
DH的人也很多。
: General Manager Brian Cashman is less certain that Montero will need to move
: ---although Cashman acknowledges the possibility. In an interview with
: NoMaas.org, he explained: "Whether he stays behind the plate, is a first
: baseman, a rightfielder, a DH—that remains to be seen. But he's got one of
: the best throwing arms in the minors, he's got some of the best blocking …
: he's just so big, mechanically he takes a lot longer in his release."
GM 現金人沒那麼確定，雖然他也承認有這個可能性。 在跟Nomaas 的訪問中他說到
"我們還不確定他會是C /1B / RF /DH , 但是他的臂力很好而他擋球也很好，只是他太
大支起身的時後會比較久。"
: Everyone agrees Montero's bat will carry him to the majors in the next few
: seasons, which is why he's a consensus top-five prospect despite the
: defensive questions. Will he get a chance with the Yankees? That remains to
: be seen. If Montero's not able to stay behind the plate (and he's got
: competition from Austin Romine in the catcher-of-the-future battle), it seems
: unlikely that he'll find a spot on the Yankees unless he can make the move to
: the outfield. While no one has released a timetable for a decision, one needs
: to be made in the next year or so, since Montero's bat is nearly ready for
: the majors. He'll spend this season in Triple-A Scranton, where hopefully a
: final determination of his position can be made. Otherwise, Yankees fans can
: probably look forward to seeing Montero smash home runs for another team in
: 2011 and beyond.
大家都同意他的棒子很快就會帶他上大聯盟，這也是為何級使守備有問題他還是公認的
五大新秀。 但是他會有機會跟洋基嗎? 這還不確定，內部還有Romine 跟他競爭，似乎
除非他變成外野手才能卡到位子。 如果今年不能搞定他的守備位子的話洋基球迷恐怕
得看他幫其他球隊打球了。
: 4. Is this finally the year the Yankees have to stand pat?
今年是洋基不動的一年嗎?
: In a question somewhat relevant to Jesus Montero, will the Yankees be able to
: pull of a midseason deal if the situation warrants it? The team's forays into
: free agency and the trade market over the past few seasons have severely
: depleted both the available budget and the available pool of minor league
: talent to deal.
這跟上個問題有點關聯，洋基今年季中能交易嗎? 他們過去兩年的FA跟交易讓他們的薪資
跟籌碼都卡的很緊。
: Cot's has the 2010 Opening Day payroll at a shade under $210 million. With a
: payroll that high, there are signs the team is feeling something of a budget
: crunch. Many believe the recent release of Chad Gaudin was to save roughly a
: million dollars. Couple the current obligations with the upcoming free agency
: for legends Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera (plus Andy Pettitte and Javier
: Vazquez) and you can understand why the team might be unwilling to take on
: any additional salary.
COTs 統計球隊的開季薪資大約在 兩億一千萬美金， 這陣子球隊有出現一些已經到達
薪資極限的徵兆，例如最近釋出Chad Gaudin 恐怕就是為了省錢。 在考慮到即將成為
FA 的 Jeter / Rivera (更別說Pettite / Vazquez ) 就不難理解他們的困難。
: But suppose the Mariners fall out of the race early and are willing to deal
: Cliff Lee. Suppose also that the Steinbrenners agree to pay the remainder of
: the $9 million owed to him. Do the Yankees have enough firepower to make that
: deal?
但假設水手掉出競爭行列而想要交易Ciff Lee, 老闆也願意出錢，洋基還有足夠的籌碼嗎?
: The answer depends on the balance of tactical and strategic thinking in the
: front office. Clearly Lee would improve the Yankees' chances to win the World
: Series in 2010. But he would also cost a fair amount in terms of young
: players. Recent trade deadline deals for expiring contracts haven't gotten
: quite the return that previous ones have, but we'd have to assume that the
: Mariners would ask for Montero and either Phillip Hughes or Joba Chamberlain
: in the deal. Maybe Jack Zduriencik would settle for less, but assume the cost
: would be substantial.
這個問題當然有很多變數，Lee 會讓洋基更好，但是也會要很多潛力球員，近年來類似的
交易往往沒有換到那麼大的包裹但是我們得假設水手會要Montero + Joba or Hughes.
即使降價也不會降太多。
: The farm system has a lot of interesting arms and some recent draftees at the
: low levels, but the upper levels are fairly bare beyond Montero, Romine, Mark
: Melancon and Zach McAllister. Trading three of your top prospects in one
: offseason will do that to you—although the system wasn't necessarily that
: strong even before the trades.
農場有一些有趣的投手跟剛選上的球員，但是在上層中除了Montero / Romine / Melancon
/McAllister 外幾乎就沒了。 一個冬天換掉三個大新秀會有這個問題，而且在那之前
就沒多好了。
: With an aging core at the major league level, and limited financial
: flexibility, retaining a set of youngsters who can contribute might be more
: important now than it has been in many years for the Yankees. That tune has
: been sung before, but it seems to ring more true this time.
: While it's surely possible that Cashman will pull another Bobby Abreu trade
: out of his back pocket, the more likely scenario has the Yankees dancing with
: the players that brought team. And that might not be such a bad thing in
: either the short term or the long term.
大聯盟的核心球員逐漸老去，資金也卡的很緊，不換年輕人對現在的洋基來說恐怕比以前
更重要。 過去幾年就已經開始這樣宣稱了，而且越來越像是事實。 當然現金人可能又會
變出像是Abreu 那樣的神奇交易，但更可能的狀控就是他們用現有的選手來打這場牌。
: 5. Can the Yankees repeat as World Series champions?
5. 洋基能連霸嗎?
: The Yankees are certainly in a good position to make the playoffs. Using
: DiamondMind and the five major projection systems, the Replacement Level
: Yankees Blog developed team level projections for the 2010 season. The
: Yankees had the best projected record in the majors—averaging 96 wins. The
: team won the division 41 percent of the time, and the Wild Card an additional
: 22 percent of the time.
根據五大預測系統的總和，洋基平均是大聯盟最佳的96勝，而41% 的機率可以奪下分區。
22% 的機率奪下外卡。
: That said, there are definitely things that could go wrong and keep the team
: out of the postseason. The AL East looks to be the toughest division in the
: American League this season. The Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all have
: reasonable claims to be the top team in the league, and only two of them can
: advance. It wouldn't take much for the Yankees to end up as the odd man out
: in that race. If any of the big five (Alex Rodriguez, Jeter, Teixeira, Posada
: or Sabathia) go down for an extended period of time, the team could see
: itself fall behind Boston and Tampa Bay. Of course the same statement is true
: for any team with title aspirations, but the Yankees' age means there's
: likely a greater chance of occurrence.
但是當然還是有可能會出問題，而且美東看起來會是個火藥庫，洋基，光芒，紅襪看起來
都是一流強隊，而頂多只能兩隊晉級。 洋基抽到簽王的機會還是不小的，只要他們的五大
選手(A-rod / Jeter / Teixeria / Posada /Sabathia) 受傷夠久他們就可能會落敗，當
然這個風險每一隊都有。 但洋基的年齡會讓這風險更大一些。
: If New York can successfully navigate the treacherous AL East and reach the
: playoffs, the team will be positioned quite well for success. A rotation of
: Sabathia, Vazquez, Burnett and either Pettitte or Hughes stacks up well with
: any team. It's impossible to predict the playoffs, but it's fair to say the
: Yankees would have at least a 12.5 percent chance of winning the
: championship. And on Opening Day, that's about all you can hope for.
如果洋基晉級，他們的機會不錯，Sabathia / Vazquez / Burnett / Petttite / Hughes
的輪值不論跟誰比都不錯。 季後賽很難預測但是可以說洋基至少會有那 1/8 的機會。
在開季當天這已經是你的最大奢求了。
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◆ From: 220.128.245.66
※ 編輯: RollingWave 來自: 220.128.245.66 (04/01 21:46)
※ RollingWave:轉錄至看板 MLB 04/01 21:46
推 FlyFreedom :感謝 04/01 21:56
推 Brackman :只能用半季的Lee,要Montero + Joba or Hughes會不會 04/01 22:52
→ Brackman :多了點呢? 04/01 22:52
推 lugla2002 :pizza 比pizza爛? 04/01 23:13
→ lugla2002 :抱歉 少看 我眼花 04/01 23:14
推 Atropos0723 :可是除此之外，還有農作物可以讓水手想換嗎？ 04/01 23:15
推 raygod :要Lee幹麻 輪值都報表了 04/01 23:42
→ raygod :Doc都沒出那麼多了... 04/01 23:44
推 sarserror :區年 04/01 23:50
推 PoisonM :Montero守備的問題還是在協調性和foot work上吧 04/02 00:48
推 externaload :在輪值在綁Lee一張長約絕對是不明智的... 04/02 01:40
→ externaload :如果交易來只打算用半季的話 不划算 04/02 01:41