[新聞] A.J. Burnett’s Curve Not A-OK

[jdtrue (練習微笑每一次)]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-j-burnetts-curve-not-a-ok/
by David Golebiewski - May 26, 2010

New York Yankees right-hander A.J. Burnett was rolling along last night
against the Minnesota Twins, whiffing five batters, walking two and trading
zeros with Scott Baker through five innings. And then, for the first time in
the short history of Target Field, the rains came and delayed the action. The
game was eventually suspended and will be picked up today.

Burnett pounded the zone with his fastball, tossing 35 of his 50 heaters for
strikes (70 percent). But while Mother Nature threw a nasty curveball last
night, Burnett missed the mark with his hammer — just 10 of 23 curves
garnered a strike (43 percent).

According to our Pitch Type Values going back to the 2002 season, Burnett’s
deuce has been one of the best offerings in the game. Per 100 pitches thrown,
the low-80’s breaking pitch has been worth +1.6 runs above average. Over the
2007-2009 seasons, Burnett’s curve had runs/100 values of +2.03, +1.23 and
+1.47, respectively. And he went to the pitch often. Never known for his
changeup, Burnett used his curve 26.3 percent in ‘07, 29.2 percent in ‘08
and 31.1 percent last season.

In 2010, however, A.J. can’t seem to find his plus curveball. The pitch has
a -0.14 runs/100 value. According to Pitch F/X data from texasleaguers.com,
Burnett’s curve has been thrown for a strike only 47.9 percent of the time
this year, compared to 56.4 percent in 2009 (the MLB average is about 58
percent). Batters have whiffed at 12.1 percent of curveballs thrown in 2010,
a significant decline from last season’s 16.7 percent whiff rate (11.6
percent MLB average).

Not getting results with the curve, Burnett appears to have lost confidence
in the pitch. He has thrown his breaking ball 23.5 percent of the time,
preferring to go to his 93-94 MPH fastball on nearly three-quarters of his
pitches. Burnett has typically tossed his fastball about two-thirds of the
time, but his 2010 heater usage has few peers — among starting pitchers
logging at least 50 innings pitched, Burnett trails only Colorado’s Aaron
Cook and Seattle’s Doug Fister in fastball percentage.

Burnett’s four-seamer and sinker have been decent, with a combined run value
right around the big league average. But those pitches don’t induce nearly
as many swings and misses as breaking stuff. Burnett’s four-seamer has been
whiffed at 6.4 percent (6 percent MLB average) and the sinker has a 5.2 whiff
percentage (5.4 percent MLB average).

As a result, A.J. isn’t getting K’s like he usually does. Burnett has 6.39
K/9, his lowest mark since 2000 with the Marlins and nearly two punch outs
per nine frames lower than his career average (8.3 K/9). The 33-year-old’s
swinging strike rate is just seven percent, compared to the 8.3 percent MLB
average and Burnett’s 10.2 percent mark since 2002. A.J.’s 83.2 percent
contact rate sits well above the 80-81 percent big league average and his
76.5 percent clip dating back to ‘02. Since inking a five-year, $82.5
million deal with the Yankees prior to 2009, Burnett hasn’t fooled batters
near as much.

His 2010 xFIP (4.35) is similar to his 2009 mark (4.29), as Burnett has
walked fewer batters and induced more ground balls compared to last season.
But he isn’t pitching like the high-octane starter we came to know in
Florida and Toronto. For A.J. to start getting more K’s, he’s going to have
to rediscover his curveball.

希望AJ快點找回他的曲球  儘管帳面上不難看  但不會K的AJ其實蠻讓人擔心的

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◆ From: 140.112.217.50
推 chancewen   :希望找回滿壘也能下庄的曲球@@
推 gidapops    :開季不是聽到他練變速 所以有一好沒二好?
→ jdtrue      :說是要練  可是他也沒啥用阿  AJ本季都是直球拼到尾
推 asd25       :真的 k/9 真的很難看= =... 每次看都OS這不是AJ...
推 meier0112   :變速球今年到現在每場差不多只用一兩次
推 ajburnett   :他每年開季都說要多投變速 結果出來都是在唬人
推 matt111501  :樓上自言自語