[翻譯] Jeter, Jeter, Numbers Beater

[jdtrue (練習微笑每一次)]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.php/jeter-jeter-numbers-beater/
by Buizly - June 7, 2010

About a month ago, I wrote an unintentionally controversial article about
some puzzling patterns in Derek Jeter’s early season numbers.

大概一個月以前  對於Jeter開季謎樣的狀況我寫了篇無意中變成有點爭論性的文章
                                                          http://ppt.cc/fGfc

There were two main contradictions within his statistics: that he was on pace
for the best power numbers of his career while posting his highest ground
ball rate ever, and that he was posting a career-low strikeout rate while
swinging at a dramatically larger proportion of pitches thrown outside of the
strike zone.

那篇中對於Jeter的數據提出兩個主要矛盾的地方：
他那時正在往生涯最有power的路上  同時擁有生涯最高的滾地球率
然後他繳出生涯最低的三振率  卻同時對於好球帶外的球有巨幅增加的揮擊率

My critics claimed that I was reading too much into the stats too early in
the season. Under normal circumstances I would have agreed, but it was more
than the numbers themselves that were puzzling. When a person hits more home
runs on fewer fly balls and makes better contact with worse pitch
selectiveness, the results contradict the logic, no matter how small the
sample size.

批評我的人主要的點在於  我太早去對這些數據下結論
在一般的狀況下我可能會同意這點  但這謎樣的程度根本就超過數據所顯現出來的
當一位球員在較少的飛球率下卻擊出更多的全壘打
較差的好壞球選擇下卻做出較佳的contact
這樣的結果明顯違反邏輯  不論樣本數是多小

Four weeks later, I think it’s appropriate to revisit the situation and see
how things are shaping up.

又過了一個月  我想現在是個適合去重新檢視目前狀況有多極端的時間點

Overall, the discrepancies have become less dramatic, but the contradictory
trends are still in place.

總的來講  這個反差變得沒有那麼誇張了  但違背常理的事情仍然一樣

As I predicted, his power numbers have come back down to earth. He’s now on
pace for 16 homers (down from 26 at last writing) and 98 RBI (down from 130).
Neither would be a career high, but both would be above his norm.

跟我預測的一樣  他的power數字回到了地球
Jeter現在的預測大概是16HR(之前是26HR)和98RBI(之前是130RBI)
沒有一個會是生涯新高  但都會超過生涯平均

But Jeter’s unprecedented groundball tendencies haven’t abated. Over
two-thirds of balls off his bat (67 percent) have been on the ground—by far
the highest such figure in the American League. While that’s a slight
decline from the 71 percent mark he posted last month, it’s by far the
highest of his career and a full 10 points above what he posted from 2002-09.

但Jeter史無前例的滾地率仍然沒有下降
超過2/3擊出的球都是滾地球(67%)--目前美聯最高的數字
儘管比起上個月的71%稍微下降  但比起他2002-2009以來最高的一次仍然高超過10%

Meanwhile, his 16 percent HR/FB rate is the highest it’s been since 2005.
Coincidentally, the 2005 season was the only other time in his career that
his groundball rate hit 60 percent. So basically, the more he puts the ball
on the ground, the more likely it is that each fly ball he hits will clear
the fences. I’m not sure if that’s really a contradiction, but it’s
certainly an odd correlation.

同時他的16% HR/FB%是2005年以來的最高點
很巧合的是  2005年同時也是他唯一另一個滾地率超過60%的球季
所以基本上  Jeter打愈多滾地球  他的飛球就會有愈多飛出牆外
我不能肯定這是個矛盾  但這確實是個詭異的關係

One thing is clear: this isn’t a common trend. This year, Jeter is the only
player in the AL who has both a groundball rate over 50 percent and a HR/FB
rate over nine percent.

有件事是清楚的：這不是個普遍的趨勢
今年Jeter是美聯唯一滾地率超過50%同時HR/FB%也超過9%的人

But the more dramatic (and interesting) statistical oddity stems from the
collapse of Jeter’s plate discipline.

然而更誇張(而且更有趣)的數據異常是在他的選球能力

Over his career, Jeter has been one of the most selective hitters in
baseball, hacking at less than 20 percent of balls out of the strike zone.
This year, that number has ballooned to 31.3 percent. Simply put, he’s
chasing bad pitches. That’s not an insult or a criticism—that’s an
indisputable, objective fact.

回顧過去生涯  Jeter一直都是最會選球的打者之一
好球帶以外的球只有不到20%會去揮擊
今年  這個數字跳到了31.3%  簡單地說  他一直去追打壞球
這不是個污辱還是批評  這是個毫無爭議、客觀的事實

The sample size isn’t too small to start drawing conclusions. Jeter has seen
288 pitches outside the zone and swung at 90 of them.

要去下這個結論的樣本數並不太小  Jeter本季面對了288顆壞球而且揮了其中90顆

As one might expect, this trigger-happy approach has had a negative effect on
his walk rate, which, at five percent, is a career low. It’s less than half
of the walk rate he posted last year.

就跟大家可能想到的一樣  這個超積極的揮棒對他的保送率產生了不好的效果
只有5%  生涯新低  比起去年整整低了一半

Similarly, you’d expect his strikeout rate to shoot up into the
stratosphere, right?

同理可證  可能你會猜說Jeter的三振率因為這樣飆到平流層去  一定是這樣對吧？

Wrong.

大錯特錯

While Jeter’s 14 percent whiff rate is a sizable increase from last month’s
nine percent figure, it’s still inexplicably lower than it ought to be,
given Jeter’s history and his newfound aggressiveness.  How is that possible?

儘管Jeter的14%揮棒落空的比例比起上個月的9%有可觀的上升
但比起應該有的數字仍然是個無法解釋的低
考慮到Jeter過去的歷史和他全心的積極攻擊模式  這怎麼可能阿？

My first thought upon revisiting these numbers was that, in addition to
swinging at more pitches off the plate, Jeter was starting to be less
discriminatory with pitches thrown in the zone. That made sense, and I was
embarrassed that I hadn’t thought of it a month ago.

我在重新檢視這些數字的時候  腦袋閃過的第一個念頭就是
Jeter除了對於揮更多好離開本壘板的球之外  也對好球帶內的球也開始去無差別攻擊
這說得通  而且我對一個月前沒想到這一點感到有點丟臉

But it turns out that’s not right either—in fact, it’s actually the
opposite. This year, Jeter has chased a career-low 69 percent of balls in the
zone, compared to 74 percent for his career. Simply put, Jeter is swinging at
more bad pitches and fewer good ones.

但結果是這也不對--事實上  剛好相反
今年Jeter對於好球帶內的球揮擊率是生涯新低-69%  比起他生涯的74%
簡單講  Jeter去揮更多的壞球  更少的好球

I plugged in the numbers and found that, while 80 percent of the pitches he’
s swung at since 2002 were good, just 69 percent of balls he’s chased in
2010 would have been called strikes.

我再深入一點看這些數字然後發現  比起2002年以來他揮擊的球有80%事實上就是好球
今年卻只有69%他揮擊的球真的是好球

And yet, Jeter’s 86 percent contact rate is the best of his career.

然後還沒完  Jeter今年的CT%是生涯最佳的86%

This just doesn’t make sense.

這完全沒有一點道理

※這篇蠻有趣的  隨手翻一翻給大家看  我相信還是有可以解釋的理由才對:p

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 140.112.217.50
推 prereality  :有時候會覺得積極的攻擊增加揮擊次數會讓手感變好
推 fetoyeh     :集GO換HR XD
推 NicoRobin26 :還是希望隊長不要太積極才好QQ
推 FlyFreedom  :推
→ jdtrue      :如果他今年真的能用15%的飛球率揮出15+HR 真的很鬼扯
推 ninini      :不曉得有沒有算錯  Jeter今年目前為止往中右路方向
→ ninini      :打的球差不多84% 生涯是差不多72%
推 sylviehsiang:所以是....玫瑰之夜鬼話連篇 這是充滿靈異的摩門特?
推 honeyjoker  :年紀到了，開始往不同球風發展？（疑？
推 Sechslee    :也許今年他認定的好球帶跟以前不同? (偏一邊?)
推 siliver     :只要成績好,怎麼打都沒差拉.
推 conconghost :SO當然變少，因為GO變多了阿。
→ jdtrue      :並沒有GO變多SO就一定變少這件事
推 rod007      :GO要打出去 SO不用  兩者應該沒有絕對關係
推 sunny15     :這篇相當有趣XDDD翻譯辛苦了
推 cat1984     :我看完嘴角一直上揚
推 nininic     :說不定~~~他在學"王大蠻"...只打喜歡的球
推 vinx        :翻的好棒喔 羨慕!
推 pathfinder  :想打五分全壘打好爭取續留!!!
→ ribbie      :嗯，球場上應該沒法子，但是"船"上可能有機會
推 kindai      :完全沒概念
推 chiky       :this just doesn't make sense!
→ meson       :jeter 小Q化!?
推 jacky1990b  :滾地球可以場內全壘打(誤
推 ericpitt    :有趣的分析　到球季結束再等等看結果吧!