Joba Chamberlain’s Massive ERA

[abc12812 ()]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/joba-chamberlains-massive-era/




Naturally, the Yankees were in on the Dan Haren discussions until the very
end. Supposedly, the package that they were putting together centered around
Joba Chamberlain. Given that the Diamondbacks eventually took the Joe
Saunders and prospects package put together by the Angels, one has to assume
that Arizona simply wasn’t impressed by Joba Chamberlain. Truly, relievers
with a 5.86 ERA typically aren’t centerpieces in trades for aces, but Joba
isn’t having a typical season this year.

We can quickly point out that Chamberlain has a 3.02 FIP and a 3.48 xFIP,
both very solid numbers out of a relief pitcher, especially given that
Chamberlain has entered games in high leverage situations this season: his
gmLI (average entrance LI) is 1.31, a typical number for a setup man. He’s
not showcasing the ridiculous ability to miss bats that he did when he first
came up, but his K-rate is still over a batter per inning, and a walk rate
below four is plenty to make a good reliever.

It just hasn’t come together this season, as far as results. Chamberlain is
getting killed on contact, as hitters have a .393 BABIP against him. It’s
not like hitters are just roping line drives, either – the line drive rate
is slightly down this season, and just under half of all batted balls against
Chamberlain have been ground balls. If anything, a low IFFB rate of 2.3%
would explain some of this success, but not nearly all of it. tERA, which is
based on batted balls, still rates Chamberlain highly, at 3.28.

The difference between Joba’s 5.86 ERA and his 3.04 FIP is 13.5 earned runs
in his 43 innings pitched so far – and that’s ignoring the fact that a big
portion of Chamberlain’s inflated ERA is due to the fact that he would have
gotten more outs if his BABIP was closer to average. These 13.5 runs can be
largely attributed to two splits.

Runners on 2nd/3rd: 6 PA, 2 1B, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 runs scored
Bases loaded: 5 PA, 1 2B, 1 HR, 6 runs scored

In 43 innings, a few bad pitches with runners on can drastically inflate your
ERA. Joba Chamberlain has pitched extremely well this year by almost every
metric. He has struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings in high leverage
situations. Even if he’s not living up to his original hype, he is still a
valuable player. The Diamondbacks shouldn’t have been scared away by his
mammoth ERA, nor should the Yankees or their fans worry about Joba’s future,
particularly in the bullpen.

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◆ From: 140.112.25.133
推 wah         :意思是說: 贾胖 要拜囉?
推 genteme     :大意:"Joba is still a valuable player"
→ yoling07    :=口= 什麼???
→ lugla2002   :跪求懶人包
推 chiky       :簡單說就是要蛋就要丟Joba, 但是還沒談成
→ chiky       :其他的也是對joba數據的分析, 基本上這篇沒新東西
推 four5       :應該說  小蛇對我們丟出的Joba 興趣缺缺...
→ stonemonkey :不是喔..是既要丟張胖跟吃下蛋哈輪的薪水部份談不攏
→ jdtrue      :搞清楚好嗎  一堆球隊談交易第一個就要Joba