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http://riveraveblues.com/2010/08/2010-post-draft-top-30-prospects-33792/
By Mike Axisa 08/17/2010
With the August 16th signing deadline now a thing of the past, we can begin
to assess how the most recent amateur draft has impacted the Yankees’ farm
system. Although they didn’t land a consensus elite talent, they more than
made up for it in volume, signing basically all of their mid-to-late round
gambles while filling out with polished college players to strike a nice
balance. The Yanks were in a position to gamble some on long-term projects,
which is exactly with they did. They could end up with nothing, or they could
end up with something really special.
In addition to the new influx of talent, the Yanks have also benefited from a
staggering number of breakout performances and strong returns from injury
this year, transforming the system from one short on the “wow factor”
before the season to one with waves with talent right now. The talent on the
mound is both plentiful and diverse, with a mix of high-upside arms and
safer, higher probability pitchers starting in Triple-A Scranton and going
all the way down to High-A Tampa. And yet the Yanks’ top three prospects
(four of the top five) are position players, showing the depth of the system.
Here are my preseason and pre-draft lists, for comparison’s sake. The only
player on the pre-draft list that is ineligible for this one is Mark
Melancon, who was shipped to the Astros in the Lance Berkman deal. Everyone
else is fair game, and several players have dropped out as you can see. Some
didn’t perform, others just got leapfrogged by other players. It’s not a
bad thing when a live arm like Dan Burawa, a MLB-ready reserve outfielder
like Colin Curtis, and a tooled up teenager with supreme plate discipline
like Ramon Flores don’t make your top 30. It’s definitely an upgrade over
where they were just twelve months ago.
Anyway, on to the list. The level listed is where the player is currently
playing, but the new draftees get a “none” because I’m not sure exactly
where they’ve been assigned, although I do have a pretty good idea. Let’s
start with a completely unsurprising name at the top…
1.Jesus Montero, C, AAA: took some time to adjust to AAA (.293 wOBA on the day
on my pre-draft list), but he’s been on an absolute tear for about two
months now (.368 wOBA at the moment) that has reaffirmed his position as one
of the very best hitters in all of minor league baseball
2.Austin Romine, C, AA: he’s certainly slowed down after a hot start (wOBA by
month: .395, .365, .318, .276, .199), but that’s not unsurprising for a guy
in his first season as a full-time catcher
3.Slade Heathcott, CF, A-: the power component of his power-speed combination
isn’t there yet (.071 ISO), but he’s shown a tremendous eye at the plate
(12.4 BB%) and the strikeouts should come down as he continues to refine his
swing and make more contact
4.Andrew Brackman, RHSP, AA: he’s cut his walk rate from 6.28 BB/9 last year
to 2.61 this year while maintaining a strong strikeout rate (8.47 K/9) and
better than a 50% ground ball rate, plus the scouting reports have been very
good
5.Gary Sanchez, C, Rk: the 17-year-old is annihilating rookie ball (.459 wOBA),
but he’s got a long way to go defensively behind the plate, more than
Montero did
6.Manny Banuelos, LHSP, A+: an appendectomy delayed the start of his season,
but he’s been simply fantastic since returning (1.79 FIP) and reports
indicate a welcome uptick in velocity
7.Hector Noesi, RHSP, AA: aggressive in the zone with four pitches that are
good enough to get swings and misses … he won’t be a star, but he’ll be a
very nice fill-in option by this time next year
8.Dellin Betances, RHSP, A+: I don’t think anyone expected him to be this good
(1.84 FIP), this fast after elbow surgery, and the even better news is that
reports indicate his stuff is all the way back as well … now it’s just a
matter of staying healthy (believe it or not, but his 67 IP this season are
the second most he’s ever thrown in a single year)
9.J.R. Murphy, C, A-: he’s gotten better as the season has gone on (wOBA by
month: .253, .293, .323, .389) while showing power and he ability to make
hard, consistent contact … seems somewhat underappreciated to me
10.Ivan Nova, RHSP, AAA: it’s not the highest ceiling in the world, but
there’s something to be said for MLB-ready back-end arms that can miss some bats
and keep the ball in the park
11.Graham Stoneburner, RHSP, A+: his .212 AVG against is one of the very best
in the minors, and he’s demonstrated the ability to miss a ton of bats and
limit walks … won’t be challenged until he gets to AA
12.Jose Ramirez, RHSP, A-: almost a forgotten man with all the pitching talent
ahead of him, but Ramirez has put up a very strong year (3.04 FIP) as a
20-year-old in his first taste of a full season league
13.David Adams, 2B, injured: crushed AA with a .403 wOBA before a broken ankle
ended his season in May … you’re looking at a rock solid everyday second
baseman in the bigs
14.Cito Culver, SS, Rk: holding his own after stepping out of his graduation
ceremony and into the batter’s box against the best pitching he’s ever
faced in his life … the power has started to come as the season has
progressed (ISO by month: .050, .094, .106)
15.Brandon Laird, 3B/1B, AAA: breakout performer of the year (.384 wOBA in AA)
has enough power and just enough defense to fake it as an every day third
baseman in the show, but it’s unlikely to be his long-term position
16.David Phelps, RHSP, AAA: arguably the best pure performance among Yankee
pitching farmhands this year, but his lack of a bonafide put-away pitch is
what limits his ceiling … doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective big leaguer
17.Corban Joseph, 2B, AA: hitting machine wOBA’d .352 as a 21-year-old in
pitcher friendly Florida State League, now he’s just got to improve on the
defensive side of the ball
18.Zach McAllister, RHSP, AAA: advanced hitters have not been kind of Z-Mac, who
has seemingly lost the ability to miss bats, generate ground balls, and avoid
he long-ball … very disappointing year
19.Rob Segedin, 3B/OF, Rk: big time on-base ability with a great swing and
moderate power potential, just need to figure out his long-term position
20.Angelo Gumbs, CF, none: true five tool potential here, but he’s extremely
raw … going to be a project
21.Adam Warren, RHSP, AA: cruised right through A-ball with 7.44 K/9, 1.89 BB/9,
and 57% ground balls before moving up, and he’s got enough stuff and command
to be a back-end starter or valuable middle reliever
22.Bryan Mitchell, RHSP, Rk: arguably the best pure arm in the system with a
knockout curveball, Mitchell has only been so-so in 33.1 IP this year, but
the upside is exciting
23.Mason Williams, CF, none: received more money than another other Yankee
draftee this year despite being the fourth best prospect they drafted …
exciting tools, but raw and with questionable long-term power potential
24.Brett Marshall, RHSP, A-: electric arm just back from Tommy John surgery, his
ranking is based on pure stuff and potential because the performance
(understandably) hasn’t been there yet
25.Gabe Encinas, RHSP, none: very diverse arsenal and a whole lot of pitching
know-how, he should carve up the low minors thanks to his ability to setup
hitters and mix pitches alone
26.Taylor Morton, RHSP, none: inconsistent spring hurt his draft stock, but he’
s been up to 96 in the past with both a changeup and a curve
27.Melky Mesa, OF, A+: old for his level but he finally seems to be putting it
together … the other Melky is a tool shed, with the only knock being his
ability to make consistent contact, something he’s done this year
28.Eduardo Sosa, CF, SS: big time defensive outfielder with great speed and
surprisingly good plate discipline, he’s a pretty exciting player to watch
live
29.Kelvin DeLeon, RF, SS: the 2007 bonus baby has two standout tools in his
power and throwing arm, but his utter lack of plate discipline will keep from
being elite
30.Evan Rutckyj, LHSP, none: a surprise signing, the big (6-foot-5, 210 lb.)
lefty has flashed promising stuff with a surprising good feel for his craft …
he’s a long-term project, but there’s a lot to work with here.
Kevin Russo and Burawa were squeezed out last night when Williams and Rutckyj
signed. One thing to keep in mind is that I (and we) don’t know nearly as
much about this year’s draftees as we do about the guys who have been in the
system for years, so it’s tough to pinpoint exactly where they belong. Don’
t like having Culver below Adams? Fine, I could easily be convinced otherwise.
Also, remember the fudge factor. There’s so little difference between say,
the fourth best prospect and the ninth best prospect, or the 22nd best
prospect and the 30th best prospect that it’s a waste of time to get worked
up over individual rankings. Think Betances should rank higher than Noesi?
Fine, who cares. They’re basically on par with each other. Think of it as
tiers. Jesus Montero is all by himself. Romine and Heathcott are behind him.
Brackman through Betances is the next tier, and so on. The important thing is
the cache of talent, which is the deepest it’s been in at least two years.
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