[洋基] Determining Joba's Trade Value

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http://riveraveblues.com/2011/01/determining-jobas-trade-value-part-i-41945/
http://riveraveblues.com/2011/01/determining-jobas-trade-value-part-ii-41996/

  Determining Joba’s Trade Value
                                                               By Mike Axisa 

  (Part I)

  Earlier this week Brian Cashman acknowledged that Joba Chamberlain hasn’t
  been the same since his 2008 shoulder injury, something that was pretty
  obvious to all. For whatever reason, that was followed by a lot of“trade
  him now”discussion, a logic jump I’m not quite sure I understand. Anyway,
  I wanted to take a stab at determining his trade value since given all the
  opinions out there.

  We’re going to do this two ways. In this post I’ll bust out my slide rule
  and figure it Joba’s trade value the ol’ sabermetric way, and in another
  post later today I’ll dig up some similar players and see what they were
  traded for and use that as a comparison. Not terribly accurate, no, but
  that’s never stopped us before.

  Last season Joba was worth 1.4 fWAR because his strong strikeout (9.67 K/9),
  walk (2.76 BB/9, 2.51 uIBB/9), and homerun (0.75 HR/9) rates led to a 2.98
  FIP, 35th best among the 124 relievers that through at least 50 IP. Some
  unfortunate luck on the BABIP (.327) and strand rate (66.6%) fronts made
  his ERA (4.40) a lot worse than the underlying performance says it should
  have been.

  You might disagree, but I think it’s fair to say that those strikeout,
  walk, and homer rates are indicative of Joba’s true talent level, or at
  least serve as a rough approximation of it. Even if he regresses some and
  is a 3.30 FIP reliever, that’s still a valuable piece. The problem going
  forward is that he can only be so valuable as a middle reliever, especially
  since Mariano Rivera will be sticking around as closer. Joba’s average
  Leverage Index last year was 1.22, but he was an eighth inning for half
  the season. With Rafael Soriano on board, Joba figures to work the six
  and/or seventh innings.

  Going forward, I think 1.4 fWAR might be the upper bound of Joba’s value
  because of his reduced role. There’s also the potential for improved
  performance since he spent last season at just 24 years old, so 1.4 fWAR
  might be underselling his future worth. To be slightly conservative, I’m
  going to keep it constant going forward, assuming he doesn’t have a big
  contract push in store for 2013. Teams have gone back to paying about $5M
  per win this offseason, so a 1.4 fWAR reliever would theoretically fetch
  $7M per year on the open market. Since Joba’s under team control for the
  next three seasons, his total value is $21M given our assumptions.

  Now we have to consider the money being paid to him, since that decreases
  his value. Joba will earn $1.7M in 2011 before getting raises in both 2012
  and 2013, assuming he isn’t non-tendered. Arbitration salaries are
  typically estimated with a 40/60/80 breakdown, meaning 40% of value in year
  one, 60% in year two, and 80% in year three. That $1.7MM salary means Joba
  is starting at just 25% of expected value in year one though, so perhaps
  50% in year two and 70% in year three would be more accurate. That would
  put his next three salaries at just $1.7M (fixed), $3.5M, and $4.9M,
  respectively. They sound reasonable, so let’s go with them.

  All we have to do to figure out Joba’s trade value is subtract his salary
  from his production, so that’s…

  $21M – ($1.7M + $3.5M + $4.9M) = $10.9M

  Let’s call it $11M just to make it a nice round number. We’re not
  splitting atoms here, we can fudge a little.

  According to Victor Wang’s research, Joba would be able to fetch a
  pitching prospect that you’d find towards the back of the top 100 list
  in a trade, which is someone below the Manny Banuelos/Andrew Brackman/
  Dellin Betances level but above the Hector Noesi/David Phelps/Adam Warren
  level. He could also get you a full year of Edwin Jackson, assuming Jackson
  sustains last year’s 3.8 fWAR pace ($10.5M surplus value). If you want to
  shoot for the moon, you could couple Joba with a Grade-B position player
  prospect ($5.5M value according to Wang) like Brandon Laird and get Dan
  Haren, as long as you believe Haren can maintain last year’s 4.5 fWAR
  pace over the last two guaranteed years of his contract. That’s a
  reasonable expectation, and would generate $16M in surplus value. We can
  play this game all day if we want, but that gives you can idea of where
  his value stands.

  Joba’s trade value looks great in a spreadsheet, but that’s not where
  this stuff actually happens. That’s why were going to look at comparable
  trades later today, and I have a feeling that will get a little closer to
  reality.

  (Part II)

  Earlier today we took a sabermetric approach to determining Joba
  Chamberlain‘s trade value, and we came up with $11M or roughly two wins.
  Now we’re going to take a more practical approach and compare the current
  version of Joba to some similar relievers, then look at what they brought
  back when they were traded.

  Joba’s career performance as a reliever is pretty damn good. We’re
  talking about excellent strikeout (10.7 K/9), walk (2.7 uIBB/9), and
  homerun (0.55 HR/9) rates in 131.2 IP, but if we remove 2007 so the
  numbers aren’t skewed, we still get 10.3 K/9, 2.76 uIBB/9, and 0.59 HR/9.
  That’s still pretty damn good. Young pitchers who perform like that
  usually don’t get traded, so the number of comparable players is somewhat
  limited. Let’s dive in…

  Joel Hanrahan

  This one isn’t perfect because Hanrahan was traded mid-year, but like
  Joba now his stock was at an all-time low. He had a stellar strikeout rate
  (9.17 K/9), but the walk (4.66 uIBB/9) and homerun (1.13 HR/9) rates
  weren’t even close. To make things more complicated, he was packaged with
  Lastings Milledge. The trade brought Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the
  Nationals, so if we cut that in half we can say he fetched a young-ish big
  leaguer struggling to establish himself. That doesn’t sound enticing at
  all.

  Matt Lindstrom

  Lindstrom’s actually been traded twice, but his first move last offseason
  works best because he had the same amount of service time Joba has now.
  Although his strikeout (7.5 K/9) and walk (3.20 uIBB/9) rates weren’t as
  strong as Joba’s, he did have the “proven closer” tag, which counts for
  something. In exchange for Lindstrom the Marlins received two low-level
  minor leaguers (that did not figure into their top 30 prospects according
  to Baseball America) plus a player to be named later that turned out to be
  Houston’s Rule 5 Draft pick. Two organizational players and what ended up
  being a Quad-A infielder. Yuck.

  Tony Pena

  Not the Yankee bench coach, the current White Sox reliever by the same
  name. At the time of the trade, he had almost the exact same amount of
  service time as Joba does now, and he brought back first base prospect
  Brandon Allen. Allen was a legit top ten prospect in any farm system,
  a power hitting first baseman that posted no less than a .390 wOBA as he
  rose from A-ball to Triple-A in the three seasons prior to the trade.
  Pena’s numbers (6.55 K/9, 2.34 uIBB/9, 0.89 HR/9) weren’t even in the
  same realm as Joba’s though.

  Ramon Ramirez

  The former Yankee farmhand has been traded quite a few times, once with
  four years of team control left and once with two-and-a-half years of
  control left. The first time around he was dealt straight up for Coco
  Crisp, an average everyday big leaguer with one year left on his contract.
  The second time he fetched current Yankee farmhand Daniel Turpen, who was
  not a top 30 prospect. Ramirez’s performance (8.38 K/9, 3.05 uIBB/9,
  0.52 HR/9) at the time of the first trade wasn’t all that far off from
  Joba’s.

  Carlos Villanueva

  We’re a year off here since Villanueva was traded with two years of team
  control left rather than three, but it’ll have to do. He did the starter/
  reliever thing early in his career like Joba, and his peripheral stats
  were pretty dang good (8.07 K/9, 2.90 uIBB/9) aside from the homers (1.31
  HR/9). The Brewers gave Villanueva away for a player to be named later,
  and we have yet to learn the identity of said player. That doesn’t help
  us, now does it?

  * * *

  It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and unless the PTBNL in the Villaneuva deal
  turns out to be some hotshot prospect, Crisp and Allen represent the best
  of the lot. We don’t need to be all that precise, we’re just trying to
  get an approximation of Chamberlain’s real life trade value. As we can
  see, it isn’t all that high. If the absolute best case scenario is a top
  ten prospect, then you know what? I’d rather just see the Yankees keep
  Joba. If he stays healthy and maintains his 2009 peripherals going forward,
  he’ll be a nice piece towards the back of the bullpen.


  結論: 交易價值不大，不如留著當牛。

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