[討論] The Yankees Should Trade for Barry Zito

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/yankees-should-trade-for-zito/




Few contracts in recent baseball history have attracted more ridicule than
the seven-year, $126 million deal the Giants gifted to Barry Zito. Apparently
still dazzled by Zito’s 23-5 record, 2.75 ERA and Cy Young award four
seasons earlier, Brian Sabean ignored Zito’s more pedestrian peripheral
stats, threw a mint at him, and instantly became the proud owner of one of
the worst contracts in professional sports.

Which is exactly why the Yankees should trade for him.

If there’s one resource the Yanks have readily available, it’s money. Even
if we assume a payroll around last year’s figure of $213 million (never mind
that they’d turn a healthy profit with a $300 million payroll), there are
dollars left to be spent. Andy Pettitte‘s retirement blows a hole in the
Yankees’ rotation — but it also makes room for an eight-figure salary, with
New York’s projected 2011 outlay now hovering around $200 million.

Further, Brian Cashman has been (wisely) reluctant to part with elite
prospects to acquire stopgap veterans. If Felix Hernandez magically became
available via trade tomorrow, sure, Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and company
…come on down. But a pitcher of Felix’s caliber isn’t likely to become
available, not today, and probably not at the trade deadline either.

That leaves the free agency market, which is alarmingly thin at this point.
The Yankees have already scraped the bottom of the barrel, taking flyers on
Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Kevin Millwood‘s name has been floated,
though Buster Olney Tweeted that Millwood is asking for $4 million to $5
million on a one-year deal. Even if Millwood lowers his price, banking on
three quality starters from a group that includes Colon, Garcia, Millwood,
Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, and yes, A.J. Burnett is asking a lot.

Which brings us to Zito. There is no iron-clad guarantee that he’ll pitch
well in 2011, even with the Giants in AT&T Park, let alone in the AL East,
braving Yankee Stadium’s launching pad. But there’s some potential for
success.

Start with Zito’s durability. He’s never spent a day on the disabled list
in his entire 11-year major league career, starting 32 or more games every
season since becoming a full-time starter in 2001. Though he’s getting
pulled earlier in games now than he did earlier in his career, Zito has still
averaged 192 IP per season in his four years with the Giants. A cynic might
argue that all those innings don’t do much good if the pitcher throwing them
isn’t all that great. This ignores just how bad a replacement-level starter
is. In the Yankees’ case, there’s no Madison Bumgarner or Jeremy Hellickson
poised to step into the rotation if one of the top five go down. Barring a
trade or an unlikely prospect blossoming, you’d likely be looking at a true
replacement-level type as an injury replacement.

The second argument in Zito’s favor is his rebound, however modest, in the
past two seasons. In a conversation last spring, Zito noted that, before the
2009 season, he’d gone back to the long-toss regimen he’d used in college
and earlier in his career, which he believed helped improve his arm strength
and velocity. While it’s tough to verify the former, the latter bears itself
out: Zito threw his fastball, slider and curve harder in the past two years
than he had since he was with Oakland.

His pitch selection has also changed, suggesting a possible cause for his
modest improvement in the past two years — beyond mere random chance or
statistical noise. Though we should be careful about putting too much faith
in pitch classification, the jump in Zito’s reported slider usage is
significant: 9.8% of Zito’s pitches in his ugly 2008 season (4.72 FIP/5.34
xFIP) were sliders, vs. 18.6% in 2009 (4.31 FIP/4.46 xFIP) and 14.5% in 2010
(4.25 FIP/4.77 xFIP).

All things being equal, you’d also prefer a left-handed pitcher in
homer-happy Yankee Stadium than a right-handed pitcher — especially if your
man is a flyball specialist like Zito. StatCorner.com notes that the home run
park effect for lefty hitters in Yankee Stadium was 124 last season, vs. a
still high but more moderate 110 for right-handed hitters. Zito’s career
splits aren’t huge (0.88 HR/9 IP, 4.23 FIP, 4.52 xFIP vs. lefties; 1.00 HR/9
IP, 4.45 FIP, 4.78 xFIP vs. righties). But they’re enough, when combined
with hitters’ own typical splits, to prompt a manager to deploy more righty
hitters with Zito on the hill. You would expect Zito to give up more homers
in Yankee Stadium than he did in Oakland or San Francisco; but the damage
could be more contained than it might for an aging right-hander like Garcia,
Colon, or Millwood.

There’s also the matter of the Yankees’ likely outfield configuration. As
Matt Klaassen ably noted, Brett Gardner could conceivably turn into Nyjer
Morgan, with Gardner’s 22 defensive runs saved last season proving to be an
aberration. What we can safely say, however, is that Gardner ranks among the
best fly-chasers in baseball, and does a much better job of saving runs than
his right-field counterpart, Nick Swisher. A left-handed flyball pitcher like
Zito thus gains another little edge if he prompts more righties to swing
against him, thus pushing more balls in the air toward left or left-center
field.

But the most compelling argument for Zito, oddly, is his price. Which is to
say, his asking price. Brian Sabean has made his share of curious moves over
the years, his World Series ring notwithstanding. But it’s hard to imagine he
’d think twice about unloading the last three years (plus an option) of Zito
’s massive contract, especially with the front four of his rotation ranking
with any other front four outside Philadelphia. Even potentially available
pitchers with fairly modest resumes like Paul Maholm or Fausto Carmona would
likely require a lot more talent in return than Zito would, given their much
more desirable contract status, and youth.

Meanwhile, trading for Zito would essentially be acquiring a free agent, only
without surrendering any compensation picks. If the Giants were to pick up
half of the guaranteed $64.5 million left in Zito’s deal, he would still
likely cost next to nothing in trade. Paying a potential 2-win pitcher about
$11 million a year for the next three seasons — even if Zito slips a little
with age — isn’t the worst outcome for a Yankees team that sorely needs
some rotation stability, and has more of a win-now mandate than just about
any other team in any sport.

Of course there is one last option for the Yankees: Go into the season with
what you have, see what happens, and maybe think about a deadline deal. For a
team with such bountiful resources, that’s a puzzling suggestion. The Red
Sox look like clear favorites in the AL East. The Rays are primed for another
potential playoff run; a somewhat suspect bullpen isn’t nearly as scary as a
potentially lousy three-fifths of a rotation. Even the loser of the AL West
battle between the Texas Rangers and Oakland A’s could be a very strong Wild
Card contender this season, especially with light competition behind them. If
the Yanks wait too long, they might fall too far behind the competition to
make it back to the big dance.

To maximize their playoff chances, the Yankees should do something soon.
Barry Zito could be the simplest route to 2 more wins in 2011.

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◆ From: 140.112.25.133
→ chancewen   :大峽谷有搞頭嗎@@
推 vcvc43      :...
推 TassadarGau :急病亂投醫了嗎，雞頭耶XD
推 folker      :換一個進不了季後賽25人名單的賽揚回來幹麻?
推 ckbaboon    :...
推 lantieheuser:因為比季賽都不應該進25人名單的選擇好...:P
推 OoyaoO      :雞頭約要到2013 還有至少65.5M要付 最起碼巨人要吃50
→ OoyaoO      :M再說吧
推 Hiro2       :不要開玩笑…要收集公仔也不是這麼收的
推 dp44        :他好貴 成績也不好 不過吃得局數還滿多的@@
推 wen8499     :巨人吃50M XD...
推 lsmking7219 :..............
→ killwhite   :雞頭.....
推 upscom      :WTF...
推 Picoro      :這 ... 如果是真的 , 這個樂透真的也買太大了 ...
推 Schnell     :我寧願練小將...
推 sd5566      :當年就討論過了 應該不可能吧 對美東成績好像沒很好
→ maydaychi   :賽揚魔咒的經典
推 joe0726     :他當年FA的時候 我一直以為他會是我們隔年的3號XD
推 lwifbf      :如果Zito一年8M~10M左右還可以接受
→ secom       :Zito 11年18.5M 12年19M 13年20M 還想要嗎?
推 stonemonkey :如果有機會的話,去把梅子的勇漢換來..
→ secom       :還有14年18M Team Option 7M Buyout
→ searoar     :Lowe, 川上, Blanton, 樓上也有多出來的SP
推 decorum     :沾過Alyssa Milano的都別來 看看痛痛人的例子吧
推 BraveCattle :當初雞頭FA時,要不要簽板上也是吵翻了
噓 externaload :他現在就是個Jon Garland等級的工作馬而已
推 Sabathia721 :看看現在SP的輪值 能找到工作馬就不錯了 還嫌 ^.<
→ searoar     :Mitre+Nova+Colon+Garcia+Nova看換不換得到嘎冷
→ externaload :重點是雞頭很貴 加上還要用交易的 不值 懂嗎721哥
→ OoyaoO      :Nova有魔鬼複製人XD