[農場] 球探報告怎麼看？

[Sechslee (そんな微軟で大丈夫か？)]

http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/02/the-scouting-scale-explained-26010
The scouting scale explained 球探報告怎麼看？
                        by Eric Schultz on February 25, 2011

In light of the recent release of EJ’s excellent Top 30 list (and new
grading methods) and Baseball America’s Top 100, I thought this would be an
excellent opportunity to delve a little deeper into the traditional scouting
scale.  Often, when reading a scouting report of a prospect, you’ll see
something like “Player X has average speed but a plus arm” or “Player Y is
a 60 hitter”, and generally you have an idea of what the scout is trying to
convey.  However, the specific meaning of these grades is often lost.  I’d
like to address this topic in two parts:  First, I will give a (brief, I
promise) explanation of the statistical theory behind the scale, to give a
better idea of how it is supposed to work.  And second, I will provide some
operational definitions for what objective measurements/statistics the grades
are supposed to correspond to, with some examples from current major leaguers
and Yankee prospects.

最近很多家都推出了新秀排名，所以作者就來簡單的介紹一下這球探報告怎麼看。
"球員A有 average speed 還有 plus arm"、"球員Y是一個 60分的 hitter"
類似這種敘述到底是啥意思咧？

The 20-80 scale is the means by which a scout evaluates the 5 tools (power,
speed, hitting, arm, defense) in the case of a position player, or the
repertoire of a pitcher.  Each tool or pitch is given a grade ranging from 20
(the lowest) to 80 (the highest), usually in increments of 10 (though
occasionally you will see some 5′s).  The scouting scale is theoretically
based on the normal distribution (see below, and if basic statistics make
your head hurt, feel free to skip the next 3 paragraphs).

通常球探使用的 20-80 量表是依據統計上的常態分布設計。
球探用來評量球員的 5 tools (power, speed, hitting, arm, defense)
或投手的能力(各種球種, command .etc)。
(如果你看到數學就頭痛，那可以跳過接下來三段)

圖: http://www.gifted.uconn.edu/siegle/research/Normal/normal.gif

What the normal distribution shows is that in a large population, the
distribution of a particular variable/characteristic will follow the above
pattern (often referred to as the bell curve or Gaussian distribution) with a
specific mean and standard deviation.  It is a reflection of the probability
of finding a particular value if you picked one subject randomly from the
population.  As you can see, the vast majority of the probability is right
around 0, which in this case is the mean.  In baseball terms, the mean would
be the average ability of a major league player at that particular skill.
 The probabilities get significantly smaller as one moves away from the
means, which illustrates the relative rarity of extreme scores.

<請配圖看>
什麼是常態分布(又稱鐘形曲線、高斯分布)?
在一個樣本數眾多的環境裡，特定變量/特性的分布將遵循如圖的模式，
大部份的人會在0的地方，也就是所謂的平均水準。
能力越高的人越少，同樣的越差的也越少。

For a reason unknown to me, on the scouting scale, the mean is a 50 score.
 As such, a pitcher with a 50 fastball is said to have an average major
league fastball (more on what that actually means later).  Each 10-point
increase/decrease in the scouting score corresponds to a change of one
standard deviation away from the mean in terms of probability.  So a player
with a 60 hit tool would be one standard deviation above the mean, which
approximately corresponds to being in the top 15.86% of hitters in the league
(and 84.14% are below).  A 60 tool is also the same as a “plus” tool.  As
we move up one more standard deviation to a 70 tool, you can see the
probability drops dramatically.  A 70 tool is in the top 2.27% of all
players, with nearly 98% below.  A 70 tool is also referred to as a “
plus-plus” tool.

通常50分表示大聯盟平均水準，50 fastball 就是大聯盟平均等級的速球。
在球探報告裡每增減10分就對應在常態分布裡移動一個標準差。
所以 60 tool ＝ plus tool ≒ 全聯盟前15.86%的 tool       ←╮
     70 tool ＝ plus plus tool ≒ 全聯盟前2.27%的 tool   ←╯ 看得出差很多厚

Moving up one more standard deviation gets to an 80 tool, which has no other
name.  With only 0.13% of the distribution at 3 standard deviations or
greater, we can see how rare it is to see a true 80 tool in the majors.  The
same probabilities apply as you move leftward from the mean.  As you might
imagine given the probability, there are only a few true 80 tools in the
majors at a given time.  Ryan Howard‘s power, Ichiro’s hit tool, and
Aroldis Chapman‘s fastball are among the major league tools that would grade
out as an 80, so this grade really represents the truly elite.  For
prospects, an example of an 80 tool would (sadly) take us outside of the
Yankee system, to something like Bryce Harper’s power or Mike Trout‘s speed.

80 tool 沒有別名，只有聯盟前0.13%才有這種能力 (抖)
舉個例: 80 power tool - Ryan Howard
        80 hit tool - Ichiro
        80 fastball - Aroldis Chapman
新秀:   80 power tool - Bryce Harper
        80 speed tool - Mike Trout

As to the numerical significance of these grades, this Prospect Watch
provides the most complete definition that I have seen.  Speed is defined in
2 ways: in the player’s overall 60-yard dash time, and the player’s speed
from the batters’ box to first base.  Fielding is more of a qualitative
evaluation, since fielding measurements are at present fairly unreliable.
 Arm strength is sometimes measured using a radar gun, but often is more
qualitative.  For catchers, however, arm strength is often measured in pop
times, which is a measure of how quickly the catcher gets the ball to the
base (and also factors in quickness of transfer.  An elite pop time (an 80)
is below 1.74 seconds, and a 70 is between 1.75-1.79.

至於個別tool的詳細定義，這邊有
http://www.angelfire.com/vt/prospectwatch/index3.html

Speed 通常看60碼衝刺的時間或實際從打擊區跑上一壘的時間。
Fielding 比較定性，因為定量工具不太可靠。
Arm 會用測速槍測，但也是比較定性。對捕手來說蠻重要的，會看接球後傳出的秒數。
(80分 < 1.74秒、70分 1.75-1.79秒間)

Hitting ability is based on projected future batting average, with a 70
hitter projected as a perennial .300-.329 hitter, and an 80 hitter
consistently above .330.  Power hitting is also pretty easy to quantify, as
it is based on projected seasonal home run totals.  A player with 60 power is
projected for 26-34 homers, 70 corresponds to 35-44, and an 80 corresponds to
45+.  Most pitching tools are qualitative except for a fastball, in which an
80 corresponds to 99+, and a 70 corresponds to 94-98 mph.

Hit 是依據預測的Avg。 (70分 .300-.329、80分 >.330)
Power 是依據預測的單季HR。 (60分 26-34支、70分 35-44支、80分 45+支)
大部分的 pitching tools 是定性的，除了 Fastball。 (80分 99+mph、70分 94-98mph)

One nice feature of the new BA list is that it includes the top tool and
grade on that tool for every player on the list.  With 6 Yankee prospects on
the list, it is a good opportunity to get an idea of how the scouting
community grades these prospects (on their best tool, at least).

BA Top 100 現在有列出 Best tool，所以就來看看6位洋基入選的新秀吧。

Jesus Montero checks in at #3, with his 70 power checking in as his best tool
(though I have heard that his hit tool was also a 70 in the prospect
handbook).  What these grades signify is that Montero projects to hit
consistently over .300 with 35-40 home run power, production that will play
at any position.  I’d be interested to see what grade his defense received,
but I imagine it wouldn’t be pretty.

Jesus Montero 第3名，有70分 power (聽說 hit 也是 70)，
這代表 Montero 被預測的最佳狀態能成為3成以上的打者附帶每年35-40支HR。
不過不一定是蹲捕手…

Gary Sanchez is somewhat surprisingly the second Yankee on the list at #30,
and his 70 power demonstrates the huge offensive potential that this kid has.
 I imagine his hit tool is probably not a 70 (at least not yet), but with his
better defensive projection (as compared to Montero), it’s easy to see why
everyone is so excited about Sanchez, and why he is so highly ranked despite
his young age and lack of significant experience.

Gary Sanchez 30名，也是70分 power，不過hit就不會是70了(至少現在不會)
但是他的defensive分數應該比 Montero 好。

Manny Banuelos is the 3rd Yankee on the list at #41, and his best tool is his
60 command.  I imagine his fastball and changeup would probably be
approaching “plus” territory as well, but this grade is consistent with
what has long been Banuelos’ strength: his command and pitchability.  That
he can back it up with two potentially plus offerings and a decent curveball
is icing on the cake.

Manny Banuelos 41名，60分 command(控球)。
作者預測 Banuelos 的 速球和變速球都接近 plus (60)，還有一個錦上添花的曲球。

Dellin Betances is #43 on the list, with his fastball grading out as a 70.
 This confirms what we have been reading about Betances: his big velocity is
back, and he is living pretty consistently in the mid-90′s.  If I had to
guess, his curve would probably grade out as a 60.  With 2 knockout
offerings, only a checkered health history and development of his changeup
stand in the way of becoming a frontline starter.

Dellin Betances 43名，有 70 fastball(速球)。
開完TJ他的速度又回來囉(灑花)，球速大約在 mid-90's。
作者猜他的曲球有60，成為前段先發的問題只剩下健康史和變速球了。

Andrew Brackman also makes the list at #78 with a 70 curveball, while his
fastball would likely grade out as a 60.  Like Betances, he has 2 nasty
pitches and a developing (but solid) changeup, but command mechanical
consistency are the big concerns.

Andrew Brackman 78名，有 70 curveball(曲球)，作者猜他的速球有60。
像 Betances 有兩種好球路，他的問題是穩定發展的變速球和控球不穩。

Last but not least, Austin Romine just makes the list at #98 with a 60 arm.
 While his receiving skills still need work, Romine’s arm strength and pop
times have always been impressive.  While Romine’s offensive tools probably
are in the 50-55 range at this point, that production would be quite
acceptable if Romine can continue to develop his defense and become an
above-average defender.

Austin Romine 98名，有 60 arm。
還要多練練，不過 Romine 的臂力和 pop times(不會翻) 都讓人印象深刻。
進攻 tools 大約 50-55分，在補手這個位子上是可以接受的。
他需要繼續發展他的 defense 到平均以上。

Like every other grading tool, the scouting scale certainly has its flaws.
 It is often inconsistently applied among observers, and the 5-10 multiple
gradation does not give a ton of room for precision.  It also does not
include any valuation of the relative importance of the tools, which varies
significantly depending on position.  Additionally, there is often the
uncertainty of whether the grade is representative of a ceiling, a likely
outcome, or some other determination of talent/value.  Despite its flaws,
however, its another useful method of analysis to keep in the toolbox, and
hopefully after reading this post you will be able to better understand the
scouting lingo that gets tossed around.

這些工具都有缺陷，也包含很多個人感覺，也有很多不確定性，但至少可以用。
希望看完這篇文章你能更了解一些球探報告的行話。


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◆ From: 122.116.189.142
推 stonemonkey :推,很詳細
→ jdtrue      :pop time就是從補手接到投手投的球(pop)到這顆球進去
→ jdtrue      :2B或SS的手套(pop)的時間差
→ jdtrue      :MLB的捕手pop time大多在2~2.5 sec左右
推 Fanicom     :推推~
推 lahugh      :詳細推~
推 MonsterBacon:推!~
※ 編輯: Sechslee        來自: 114.32.1.61          (03/06 16:10)