Re: [農場] Fangraphs Yankees Top 10 Prospects

[pttoliver ()]

※ 引述《Sechslee (そんな微軟で大丈夫か？)》之銘言：
:   http://ppt.cc/3@Y1
:   Top 10 Prospects: The New York Yankees
:                                       by Reed MacPhail - March 2, 2011
:   1. Jesus Montero, C
:   Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent 2006 (Venezuela)
:   2010 Level: AAA (International League)
:   Age on Opening Day: 21.4

:   Notes: One of the best pure hitter in the minors, there isn’t much
:   Montero can’t do at the plate. He is extremely strong, and has the
:   balance and quick hands to drive the ball to all fields. He got off
:   to a slow start in his first taste of AAA in 2010, but he rebounded
:   to post a more-than-respectable overall line of 289/353/517 and a
:   career high 21 home runs. Unlike many power hitters, Montero is tough
:   to strikeout. He struck out in only 20.1 percent of his at-bats last
:   year, and that was even higher than his 2009 rate of 13 percent. While
:   there are few questions abut Montero’s bat, there are plenty about
:   his defense. He has improved over the past couple of seasons to the
:   point where he is now merely well below-average behind the plate, but
:   he is still not good enough to profile as an every-day catcher. He
:   committed 15 passed balls in 2010, a total surpassed by only four
:   other teams in the fourteen-team International league, and he only
:   threw out 23 percent of would-be base-stealers. Still, Montero’s
:   ability to fill in behind the plate has value. He could serve as a
:   team’s everyday DH, as well as filling in as the back-up catcher,
:   saving a roster spot and probably around a million dollars for his team.
:   Bill James projects Montero to hit for a .375 wOBA in 442 plate
:   appearances at the major-league level in 2011. While James’ projections
:   are often bullish on prospects, the projection illustrates the point
:   that Montero has the potential to have an impact bat. Assuming the
:   Yankees break camp healthy, Montero should begin the year in AAA,
:   but the bat looks ready if and when he’s needed.







    1. Jesus Montero, C
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent 2006 (Venezuela)
    2010 Level: AAA (International League)
    Age on Opening Day: 21.4

    小聯盟最棒的打者之一，打擊看起來沒什麼缺點。他非常強壯，揮棒速度快而且能夠
保持平衡，有能力把球打到球場各角落。2010年擺脫不順利的開季之後，結算成績很棒，
289/353/517 with 21HRs。不像許多強打者，Montero不容易被三振。去年三振率20.1%，
比09年的13%高一些。在防守上不像他的棒子，仍然存在許多問題。雖然過去幾季他的防守
逐漸進步，不過現在的他防守不僅遠低於平均，也沒辦法當個everyday捕手。2010他捕逸
了15次，拿來跟國際聯盟各隊全年團隊總捕逸數比，14隊裡只贏過4隊，而且他的阻殺率
只有23%。不過能夠蹲捕還是有他的價值。他可以當全職DH，也可以兼差當備用捕手，替
球隊節省球員名單，省下約100萬鎂。Bill James預測他2010年在442打席裡可以打到
.375 wOBA。儘管Bill James的預測常常對新秀太樂觀，不過這預測也說明了他的打擊能力
。假設開季時洋基有健康的陣容，Montero應該會在AAA開季，但他的棒子看起來已經準備
好了。







:   2. Gary Sanchez, C
:   Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent 2009 (Dominican Republic)
:   2010 Level: RC/NYP
:   Age on Opening Day: 18.3
:   Notes: In many respects, Sanchez is a younger version of Montero. Both
:   players have huge offensive ceilings, featuring the ability to hit for
:   both average and big-time power. In 195 plate appearances across the
:   Gulf Coast and the New York-Penn leagues, Sanchez slugged 8 home runs
:   and put up a 329/393/543 line, remarkable numbers for a teenage catcher.
:   It’s worth noting that his overall line was aided by a .388 BABIP, but
:   it’s not all together together uncommon for talented players to post
:   high BABIPs at the lower levels. Sanchez strikes out a bit more than
:   Montero, whiffing in 25.4 percent of his at-bats, but given his youth,
:   it’s not especially concerning. Defensively, Sanchez has a legitimate
:   shot to remain behind the plate long-term. If he remains a catcher, his
:   offensive ceiling is high enough that he could become a perennial
:   all-star. He’ll get his first taste of full-season ball in 2011, and
:   if he gets off to a good start, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him
:   finish the year in Hi A.






 2. Gary Sanchez, C
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent 2009 (Dominican Republic)
    2010 Level: RC/NYP
    Age on Opening Day: 18.3

    從許多面向來看，Gary Sanchez是年輕版的Montero。兩人打擊天花板都很高，能夠
hit for average而且有很棒的power。去年在總和195打席裡面打了八支全壘打，交出
329/393/543成績單，對新秀捕手來說是可圈可點的數字。值得注意的是他受到.388 BABIP
的幫助，不過有天分的年輕選手在低層級有高一點的BABIP並不罕見。他的三振率為25.4%
，比Montero要高一些，不過他還年輕，沒那麼值得擔心。防守上，他夠格當個正職捕手。
如果他繼續練捕手，加上他的打擊天花板，未來會是全明星的常客。2011是他第一個完整
球季，如果有個好的開季，在Hi A結束本季也不讓人驚訝。







:   3. Manny Banuelos, LHP
:   Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent 2008 (Mexico)
:   2010 Level: H+/AA
:   Age on Opening Day: 20.1
:   Notes: The start of Banuelos’ season was delayed due to appendectomy,
:   but he was lights out after returning midway through the season. In 44
:   innings in the Florida State league, Banuelos posted a 2.33 ERA despite
:   surrendering a BABIP of .356, and he continued to pitch well in a brief
:   stint in AA. Only listed at 5-foot-10, 155 pounds, durability will always
:   be a concern for Banuelos, but when he’s been healthy, he’s put up
:   impressive numbers. In Hi A, Banuelos had a 12.6 K/9 and a BB/9 of only
:   2.8 before being promoted. Add in a respectable GB% of 45 percent, and
:   there isn’t much to quibble with from a statistical perspective.
:   Scouting reports are equally as glowing. Despite his stature, Banuelos
:   has the arm strength, command, and secondary stuff to profile at the
:   front of a rotation. After throwing only 64 innings last year, the key
:   for Banuelos in 2011 is to stay healthy. If he turns in a healthy season,
:   he is polished enough that he could press for a big-league call-up in
:   September. Although, 2012 is probably a more realistic ETA. He could
:   profile as high as a number two starter.

    3. Manny Banuelos, LHP
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent 2008 (Mexico)
    2010 Level: H+/AA
    Age on Opening Day: 20.1

    因盲腸炎錯過開季的Banulos在季中回到球場，並且發光發熱。去年在Florida State
leage 44 局的投球當中，儘管BABIP達.356，他還是交出了 2.33 的ERA，在AA短暫的出賽
也投得不錯。5"10的身高，155 lb的體重，續航力永遠會是Banuelos讓人擔心的地方，但
在他健康的時候，他已經交出讓人印象深刻的成績。在高階一A，12.6 K/9，只有 2.8 的
BB/9。再加上滾地球比例只有45%，數據上沒有什麼好抱怨的了。球探報告也同樣樂觀。
除了身高之外，他的球速，控球，第二種球路讓他夠格擔任輪值前段。去年投了64局之後
，今年的關鍵是保持健康。如果他能交出健康的一季，在九月他已經磨練夠可以call上大
聯盟了。不過預測他2012年上大聯盟會比較實際些。未來可能投到2號先發。










:   4. Dellin Betances, RHP
:   Acquired: Drafted 8th Round 2006 (New York HS)
:   2010 Level: H+/AA
:   Age on Opening Day: 23.0
:   Notes: Standing 6’8〃, 260 pounds and throwing in the mid-90s with a
:   solid breaking ball, Betances is one of the most imposing pitchers in
:   the minor leagues. With such a great combination of size and stuff,
:   Betances has a chance to become a front-of-the-rotation starter, but
:   he’s been plagued by inconsistency throughout his career. After
:   struggling last year in Hi A, he was shut down, eventually undergoing
:   surgery to reinforce a ligament in his arm. Healthy in 2010, he had a
:   breakout season, pitching well in the Florida State league and earning
:   a promotion to AA at the end of the year. For much of his career,
:   Betances struggled with his control, but when he came back in 2010 he
:   was a new man, walking only  2.4 batters per nine in 77 innings in Hi A.
:   His stuff was as good as ever, too, allowing him to rack up a K/9 of 11.2.
:   Those are obviously exceptional numbers, but it’s important to note
:   that he was also the beneficiary of a .251 BABIP and a HR/FB rate of
:   only 1 percent. I’m also not completely sold that he will show the
:   same level of control in 2011. It’s extremely rare for a pitcher with
:   control problems to undergo surgery and come back with better control
:   than before. Still, few prospects can match Betances’ ceiling. But I
:   think some prospect watchers are getting a little overzealous on Betances.


    4. Dellin Betances, RHP
    Acquired: Drafted 8th Round 2006 (New York HS)
    2010 Level: H+/AA
    Age on Opening Day: 23.0

    6"8身高，260lb，mid-90s與相當不錯的變化球，Betances是小聯盟最有天分的投手
之一。有這種身高加上球威，他有機會成為輪值前段先發，不過整個球員身涯都不是很
穩定。去年在高階1A掙扎一段時間後，球隊拉他下來休息一段時間，最終他還是去開刀，
修補他的手臂韌帶。2010年健康的他有一個突破的球季，在Florida State投得很好，
季中被call up 到AA直到球季結束。他一直都有控球問題，但2010年他有了新面貌，77局
的投球中指交出2.4 BB/9，11.2 K/9的成績。不過這數字還搭配上.251的BABIP，
1%的HR/FB。我並不認為2011年他的控球還會像今年這麼好。極少有控球問題的投手，
手術回來後控球還比以前好的。不過也很少投手新秀的天分比得上Betances。但我想球界
有些人士對Betances有點捧過頭了。


:   5. Andrew Brackman, RHP
:   Acquired: Drafted 1st Round 2007 (NC State)
:   2010 Level: A+/AA
:   Age on Opening Day: 25.4
:   Notes: At 6-foot-10, it’s not a surprise that Brackman starred in both
:   baseball and basketball at North Carolina State. The Yankees fell in
:   love with his size and athleticism, taking him 30th overall and signing
:   to him to a major-league contract worth over $4.5 million. The signing
:   was considered an overpay by many in the industry, and after Brackman’s
:   first two professional seasons it appeared as though the naysayers were
:   right. His pro debut was delayed until 2009 as he recovered from Tommy
:   John surgery, and when he came back a 6.4 BB/9 and diminished stuff
:   clouded his prospect status. But Brackman rebounded with a solid 2010
:   season. Despite a 5.10 ERA, he threw the ball extremely well. His K/9
:   was 8.4 and he walked only 1.4 batters per nine. Those numbers got a
:   little worse upon his promotion to AA- his K/9 fell to 7.8 and his BB/9
:   increased to 3.4- but he continued to get ground-balls at a 52 percent
:   rate. The chance that Brackman becomes an ace is slim- he has work to
:   do in developing his change-up and his fastball doesn’t have quite the
:   same velocity it once did. Still, depending upon the strides he makes
:   next year he could become a solid mid-rotation option, or a late-inning
:   reliever.



 5. Andrew Brackman, RHP
    Acquired: Drafted 1st Round 2007 (NC State)
    2010 Level: A+/AA
    Age on Opening Day: 25.4

    6"10的身高，難怪他可以成為北卡州大棒球與籃球的明星。當時洋基愛上他的身材
與運動能力，在第一輪30順位選進他，給他4.5M的大聯盟約。業界當時認為這是overpay
合約，接下來兩年他似乎證明了反對者是對的。因為開TJ的關係，直到2009年才職業初登
板，當他回來的時候他交出了6.4 BB/9的成績單，球威還下滑，看起來未來有了陰影。但
2010年反彈的他有了不錯的球季。儘管ERA 5.10，他還是投得很棒。他有 8.4的K/9，
BB/9只有1.4。升上AA後數字有些下滑，K/9 掉到7.8 ，而BB/9 增加到3.4，不過他還是
讓打者打出滾地球，他的滾地球比率是52%。Brackman變成Ace的機會非常低：他已經開始
練變速球，而且他的速球球速已經不像以前這麼快了。然而從他進步幅度這麼大來看，
明年他可能成為輪值中段的選項，或是比賽後段的中繼。




比想像中多   6~10 以後翻....

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◆ From: 140.120.136.175
推 Sechslee    :頭推
推 ahuahala    :推
推 yamatai     :熱情幫推
推 linmw       :推
推 LouGehrig   :推
推 TrueTears   :推一個  樓上鐵馬
推 FlyFreedom  :優秀
推 kwSugar     :有看有推!!
推 yamatai     :有點好奇 CANO 當年的 review 是怎麼寫的
→ jdtrue      :投手的高GB%一般是好的(避免長打)  所以respectable
→ jdtrue      :翻成"只有"有點翻反了...
推 young841219 :Cano當初2004 TOP2  第1是Eric D.....  第3是大帝
→ young841219 :http://tinyurl.com/da2ua
推 yamatai     :我知道排名，只是不知道當時對他的tool評價是如何
→ yamatai     :應該沒人想得到他這麼會幹砲吧
→ jdtrue      :後天練的  去年開季明顯壯了一圈
推 yamatai     :power 是最難練的吧，cano的打擊協調性真是沒話說
→ yamatai     :所以就算練壯那個擊球的順暢感還是保持的很好
※ 編輯: pttoliver       來自: 122.117.18.181       (03/05 01:05)
→ pttoliver   :我翻"再加上...只有..." 承接上述的優點
→ pttoliver   :應該不會看反，還是感謝您提醒
→ GarySanchez :GB% 45算不錯的數字了... 尤其他又有極高的三振能力
→ jdtrue      :在prime age power長出來的例子其實還是不少的
推 yamatai     :不過他練壯他的防守範圍有沒有變小?
→ jdtrue      :去年符合局數限制的2B  Cano的RngR是AL倒數第一
推 yamatai     :NYY的內野守備........真辛苦了這些投手  XDDDDD
推 sacra       :發現王拔是2004 TOP10 @@