[洋基] 鐵爺

[laperous (MO: 8 Strikes 4 Outs!)]

http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/10/story-of-a-season-mark-teixeira-35071

It was quite a season for Mark Teixeira. Like I said last week, it was either
the best bad season ever or the worst good season ever. While his .248/.341/
.494 line looks week, it still produced a .361 wOBA and a 124 wRC+. Those are
fine numbers, but they represent the second straight non-Tex-like year out of
Tex. His walk rate (11.1) and his Iso (.246) were right in line with his career
averages (11.5 and .250 respectively). However, 2011 featured another sharp
drop in BABIP. From 2009-2010, Tex’s BABIP dropped 34 points. From 2010-11,
it dropped 29 points. I’ve covered this manty times before, so I don’t need
to say much more about it.

The year started off fantastically for Teixeira, which was an oddity in and of
itself. In April, he tore the cover off the ball with a .405 wOBA and a 154
wRC+. He dropped off a bit in May, but was still quite productive at .375/134.
June was an odd month for Tex. His walk rate was in double digits, but his OBP
was a lowly .312 due to a .151 (!!) BABIP. Despite that, he rode a .330 (!!)
Iso to a .367 wOBA/128 wRC+. July saw Tex’s OBP go back up to (a still low)
.323, but his Iso dropped to .160. In turn, his wOBA/wRC+ slide continued and
he turned in a .334/106 split for the month. August bucked the trend as Tex
went back up to .351/117, but in September, he dropped back to .330/103.

In terms of fWAR, Tex still pulled in a mark of 4.2, the third highest mark for
an AL 1B behind Miguel Cabrera (7.3) and Adrian Gonzalez (6.5) and ahead of
Carlos Santana (3.8). This mark is an increase of one full win over 2010, but
one full win behind 2009. This year’s performance was valued at $19M, which is
below his $22.5M salary this year. So that’s a deficit of $3.5M from Tex this
year, which is unfortunate. Given his relatively poor year, though, I thought
the mark would be even farther in the red. This is more a function of Tex’s
salary, though, and not necessarily his production.

It’d be unfair to say that Tex is broken, but a second straight year of a big
BABIP drop and an increasingly fly ball heavy batted ball profile is a bit
discouraging. We’ve heard that Tex is going to work with hitting coach Kevin
Long during the offseason and hopefully he can run into a few more hits in
2012. I won’t complain about his walks and his power output, but that low BA
is dragging down his OBP and making him hit into more outs. As my post from
July pointed out, even a return to his career numbers would up his production
immensely.


打擊三圍.248/.341/.494，進階數據：.361wOBA / 124wRC+。
可謂鐵爺都不鐵爺了...冏~~~

被保送率11.1和Iso(.246)與生涯(11.5 and .250)數據差不多，
但是2011的BABIP又再度下降~
2009~2010，BABIP降了34%；2010~2011，又降了29個百分點。

    *Iso: Isolated Power (ISO) -- a hitter's raw power, in terms of extra bases
          per AB. ISO = (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB

    **BABIP: Batting average on balls in play


和往年不一樣，球季剛開始鐵爺表現很好，
四月繳出.405wOBA / 154wRC+的成績，
五月微微下滑，但打擊還是相當有貢獻(.375wOBA / 134wRC+)，

六月就很奇怪了~ 保送率還是雙位數，但因為BABIP.151導致OBP超低(.312)，
儘管如此，六月還是繳出Iso.330 / .367wOBA / 128wRC+的成績。

七月OBP往上升了一點到.323(依舊很低)，但Iso降到.160，也因此wOBA/wRC+繼續往下掉到
.334/106。八月wOBA/wRC+逆勢反彈到.351/117，但九月再度下滑到.330/103。

鐵爺4.2的fWAR依舊亮眼，美聯一壘手第三。美聯第一是Miguel Cabrera(7.3)，第二是
Adrian Gonzalez(6.5)，第四是Carlos Santana (3.8)。比起2010，鐵爺fWAR足足上升了
一點(即2010年fWAR是3.2)，但比起2009也整整下降了一點(即2009年fWAR是5.2)。

今年表現值薪水$19M，比他現領的$22.5M來得低，所以很遺憾的，表現和實際價值差了
$3.5M。以他算表現不好的一年來說，薪水和實際價值會差更多，不過這是以薪水觀點
而論，不一定是說他的表現有那麼差。

如果這樣就說鐵爺廢了有失公允，但是連續兩年的BABIP大幅滑落以及大棒一揮的飛球持續
上升的確都是警訊。據說鐵爺放假時要讓K-Long“修”一下，希望他2012年能打出更多安
打。

鐵爺被保送率和砲管都還在，但打擊率低讓他的OBP降低，也造成更多出局數。就如同七月
時講的，就算所有數據都提升到和生涯數據一樣就好，他進攻火力就會大大提升。


=====


◎延伸閱讀：http://www.yankeesdaily.com/post/32993

2011鐵爺成績：156場出賽，打擊率0.248，39支全壘打，111個打點，被保送76次。

鐵爺過去打擊率幾乎都是0.280，但這季打擊率0.244，去年則是0.250。他自己向Newark
Star-Ledger 承認過去兩年都“賣”給全壘打了...=.='

鐵爺說：“洋基球場右外野實在太具吸引了，在洋基第一年大豐收後，過去的兩年我太被
這種快樂影響，我需要改變”。

鐵爺37隻全壘打中有22隻是在洋基球場擊出的，這似乎也說明他為適應主場而改變打擊方
式，不過這不代表他不能適應在紐約打球的壓力，畢竟他第一年到洋基的打擊率是0.292。

2011年Posada和Chavez站過一壘，不過他們兩個2012不太可能再待洋基了，後備一壘手
可能是Montero或在市場上找一個便宜的替補。


=====

看來季中的微調冏掉了...
季後再來，展望明年！


※ 引述《laperous (Laperous)》之銘言：
: http://ppt.cc/WIC_
: TORONTO -- Mark Teixeira's year thus far can best be characterized as
: bittersweet. The power numbers are up, but the batting average is down --
: way down, when considering his career totals.
: "It's been one of the most satisfying and frustrating years for me," Teixeira
: said after Saturday's 4-1 win over the Blue Jays, which saw that batting
: average dip to .240 after a 1-for-5 day.
: The Yankees' first baseman came into Sunday's series finale -- in which he
: served as the designated hitter -- batting just .160 (4-for-25) with one homer
: in his last seven games.
: Teixeira said he "didn't feel good at all" before the All-Star break but is
: starting to get a little more comfortable at the plate. Now, it's about being
: more selective and getting his timing back.
: Hitting coach Kevin Long feels that starting Teixeira's swing earlier can
: help get that timing.
: "He's open, and when he opens, he has to get closed [before starting his
: swing]," Long said about the switch-hitter's stance. "You have to do that
: early so that you can obviously attack the baseball. If you're late getting
: there, then you're going to be fighting a battle."
: From 2004-09, Teixeira sported a .295 batting average and .385 on-base
: percentage. Last year, he hit .256 with a .365 on-base percentage.
: And heading into Sunday's matchup against Carlos Villanueva, those two
: categories stood 43 and 29 points lower than his career totals, respectively.
: Teixeira is on pace to drive in 118 runs and finish with a career-high 45
: homers, but it'd be difficult to get that batting average even in the upper
: .200s by this point. For a guy who normally hits third in the batting order,
: a low batting average is better than low home run and RBI totals.
: But Long still believes Teixeira can hit for a high batting average, even if
: the last two years don't show that.
: "I just think it's a coincidence," Long said about Teixeira, whose on-base
: percentage was .345 heading into Sunday. "I think he's still capable of hitting
: for a high average. I think it's just one of those points in the season where
: you look up right now, he's hitting .240 and there's room for improvement.
: We'll continue to attack that and see if he can't get that up."

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 116.48.16.57
推 unicotexalex:
→ chancewen   :好像被變速球修理的很慘?
推 gn02064109  :但這季打擊率0.244，去年則是2.50  ←0.25?
手殘 =.= 已改 謝。:)
※ 編輯: laperous        來自: 116.48.16.57         (10/19 20:29)
推 siliver     :推~~~~~~
推 beyond1000  :齁黑不能亡!!!
推 ShineShineJu:不知道AROD差多少  XD
→ jojo2147    :我有點好奇Iso中文翻做什麼...還有這個數據不是有爭
→ jojo2147    :議說錯誤長打能力與三壘安打的關係嗎?
→ laperous    :Iso照字面上解釋即是2安、3安和全壘打的能力...中文
→ laperous    :我不知道怎麼講 Orz'...
推 kiuo        :純長打能力,SLG會把1B也算進去,Iso不會
→ kiuo        :啊,說1B不算也不太對,他的算法是(2B+(3Bx2)+(HRx3))
→ laperous    :SLG包括1B沒錯 Iso則是extra base hits 即剛說的2B/
→ laperous    :3B/全壘打...
→ jojo2147    :我記得爭議是 三壘安打於長打能力好像比較關乎速度
→ jojo2147    :所以好像有出現算法是2B+3B+HR*3
→ Sechslee    :通常3B的數量很少 就算把3B當2B算也沒有太大影響
推 jojo2147    :不知道有沒有SLG差不多的球員但是速度差別比較大的
推 kiuo        :長打就是長打,是不是跑出來的有差嗎?
→ jojo2147    :的確我鑽牛角尖了，反正跑成三壘 二壘安打就會少1
推 sylviehsiang:換說我發現有個台北阪急IPSA的櫃姐很像鐵爺 XD
→ laperous    :櫃姐長得像鐵爺~ o.0 下次回台北時回信義區晃晃~ XD
推 gn00067504  :葛審被修一下後就爆發了~鐵爺加油!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!