Re: [洋基] 為什麼Hughes不能在球數領先時解決打者?

[nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)]

※ 引述《Sechslee (′ _ゝ`)》之銘言：
: http://goo.gl/0I4OG RiverAveBlues.com
: Why can’t Hughes put away batters after getting ahead?
:                                                           By Joe Pawlikowski
: With his four home runs surrendered yesterday, Phil Hughes sits behind only
: Jason Vargas for the MLB lead in home runs allowed. Of course, Vargas has
: pitched 24 more innings, so Hughes has the lead in home runs allowed per
: nine innings pitched (2.18 HR/9). This wouldn’t be so surprising if it
: weren’t for Hughes’s other peripheral statistics.
Hughes是全壘打比賽餵球員

: Hughes has both a low walk rate (2.30 BB/9) and a relatively high strikeout
: rate (8.85 K/9). While he’s not fanning batters at a Strasburgian rate,
: he still ranks 7th out of 47 qualified AL starters in strikeout rate. At
: the same time he’s shown good control, ranking 14th lowest in walk rate.
: That’s good for a 3.85 K/BB ratio, which ranks fourth in the AL. How is
: someone dominant enough to strike out more than his share of hitters,
: while at the same time showing enough control to avoid giving them free
: passes, manage to allow so many home runs?
Hughes很能K控球也很好，為什麼一直被幹出牆？

: Losing while ahead
: One result of Hughes’s control is that he often works ahead in the count.
: He has faced 341 hitters this year, of which 83 have gone to an 0-2 count.
: That’s 24.3 percent of all hitters he’s faced. The AL average is just
: 19.3 percent of all PA. Yet hitters have had a field day once they’re
: this far behind. The average AL hitter has a .166 BA and .250 SLG in PA
: when they’ve seen an 0-2 count. In PA when Hughes has gotten ahead 0-2
: hitters have a .253 BA and .494 SLG. Even worse, when the count is 0-2
: AL hitters have a .146 BA and .222 SLG. Against Hughes with an 0-2 count
: they have a .294 BA and — I’m not even kidding — a .618 SLG. When
: Hughes is ahead in the count, opponents have hit .236/.242/.394 against
: him. The average AL pitcher holds opponents to a .201/.210/.300 line
: while ahead.
Hughes在將近1/4的打席數中取得兩好零壞的絕對領先，但是他尤其在這種情況下被打慘了

: Fastball heavy
: Unsurprisingly, Hughes ranks near the top of the leader boards in fastball
: percentage. He’s used his for more than two-thirds of his overall pitches.
: That does not include his cutter usage. The names ahead of him are all
: known for the movement on their fastballs. Bartolo Colon has the two-seamer
: we loved last year. Justin Masterson, Rick Porcello, and Henderson Alvarez
: get ground balls due to the sinking action on their fastballs. Matt Moore
: does have a two-seamer. Yet Hughes throws a relatively straight four-seamer.
: It is unsurprising, then, that Hughes has allowed 12 of his 19 home
: runs on the fastball. That’s 63 percent, which is slightly below his
: fastball usage rate, but given the sample size it’s close enough. At
: the same time, Hughes has used the fastball as a swing and miss weapon.
: Before yesterday’s game batters missed once every five swings. It’s
: clear that while seemingly straight, Hughes’s fastball can sneak up
: on a batter and cause him to swing and miss. It is easily his best pitch.
Hughes靠四縫線吃飯，丟直球丟得比他多的大半是丟2-seamer
他被幹的十九發中有十二發是4-seamer被打出去
Hughes的4-seamer可以讓人揮空，顯然是他最好的武器

: Cutting out what doesn’t work
: After giving up many long balls early in the season, Hughes did make an
: adjustment. He had been throwing his cutter, but it wasn’t an effective
: weapon. He threw it 62 times, and three times batters took it out of the
: park. That looks even worse when we see that batters swung at it only 26
: times. That’s more than one in 10 swings resulting in a home run. The
: cutter just wasn’t working.
: Hughes threw the cutter 47 times in April, but only 15 in May. It’s
: pretty clear that he cut it out at some point during that month, because
: he hasn’t thrown it once in June. That happens to coincide with his
: string of very good starts, yesterday excluded. In fact, before yesterday
: he’d given up just one home run on his fastball in June, of 244 pitches
: and 130 swings. Unfortunately, he did surrender three homers on the
: fastball yesterday.
他試著用cutter來搭配，但是效果更糟，不但會被幹出牆而且不怎麼能騙人
到了五月份他又把cutter收起來了，六月更是一球都沒丟

: Trying something different
: Yankees’ pro scouting manager Will Kuntz noted two changes in Hughes’s
: secondary arsenal, aside from scrapping the cutter. “He’s using his
: curveball as a first pitch,” says Kuntz. Second, Kuntz says that he
: changed his grip on his changeup recently — before a start against
: Kansas City, he estimates. “It’s a great pitch for him,” says Kuntz.
: “He’s getting more comfortable with it.”
: Hughes’s adaptation to his fastball, curve, changeup arsenal might take
: some time. He had indeed worked on a changeup in spring training, and
: did try to work it into his arsenal. He threw it 12 percent of the time
: in April and May. He’s throwing it about half as frequently in June.
: He was at six percent coming into yesterday’s game, and threw the
: changeup just six of 83 pitches yesterday. Getting comfortable with it,
: it seems, is a process.
洋基球探部教練注意到Hughes的兩點改變，
其一是試著用曲球搶好球數，其二是改變了變速球的握法
他的變速球越丟越多，而且看起來越丟越有自信

: Hughes did ramp up his curveball usage from April, 12 percent, to May,
: 21 percent. Yet in June that had dropped to 16 percent going into
: yesterday’s game. In a way that makes sense. As Kuntz said, he’s
: using it more early in the count, setting up his fastball. We saw how
: frequently Hughes works ahead of hitters. If he’s using his fastball
: as his biggest attack weapon, it does seem that he’d be throwing it
: more frequently than before (when he was presumably trying to use his
: curve as a weapon to finish off hitters).
: Yesterday, however, Hughes went curveball heavy, throwing it 31 times
: (37.3 percent). Six of the 19 batters he faced saw it as a first pitch.
: Nine times he threw it with an even count, and just four times he threw
: it when behind in the count. I’m honestly not sure what this amounts
: to, but it’s interesting that he increased his curveball usage in a
: start where his average fastball was stuck in the low 90s in the first
: few innings. He didn’t hit 94 until the fourth, and then only twice.
: It was mostly 91 to 92 on the day.
Hughes以前拿曲球當out-pitch，現在更像是用來set-up他的速球
也因為他現在更傾向把速球當成決勝武器，他丟速球的次數也變多了
昨天的19個打席中，有6個打席首先他丟了曲球
在好壞球數相等時他九次丟了曲球，而只有四次在球數落後時端出曲球
作者不確定這是不是代表什麼重大的改變，不過昨天他的速球球速出不來

: Still no explanation
: While there is plenty of information here, it still doesn’t paint
: a clear picture of why Hughes’s results line up as they do. “Some
: guys are wild in the zone,” says Kuntz. “It’s a matter of command,
: usually. They’re supposed to be down and away.” So Hughes can keep
: it around the zone, but not necessarily where he wants it in the zone.
: When he hits, then, it’s a whiff. When he misses, he might not get
: the ball back.
Kuntz說你丟準了就是個揮空，丟不準就會被幹出牆(......)

: Kuntz also spoke of Hughes’s bulldog mentality. We’ve heard this term
: used to describe many pitchers. RAB readers will remember that those who
: favored Joba Chamberlain pitching out of the pen often cited his bulldog
: mentality. What does that mean for Hughes, though? Does it mean that he
: attacks too hard when ahead in the count and is therefore more prone to
: mistakes? Does it mean that he’s better fit for the bullpen, where he
: can really unleash his fastball and need only one other pitch?
Kuntz還有提到Hughes的鬥犬性格，直持Joba被移出牛棚的人常常提到這個特性
是不是Hughes太愛硬拼了呢？是不是他因此更適合當後援因為如此一來他就不需要太多
球種呢？

: It’s difficult for experienced members of the Yankees’ organization
: to answer this question, let alone you or me. Hughes is, by statistical
: standards, turning in a unique season. Looking at all pitchers with at
: least 50 IP from 1901 to 2012, only three other pitchers have had a K/BB
: ratio of 3.5 or greater, with a HR/9 of 2.0 or greater. The other three
: aren’t exactly power pitchers, though. If we look at pitchers with a
: K/9 of more than 8.5 per nine and a BB/9 of lower than 2.5 per nine,
: Hughes stands alone. Yes, using a mere 50 IP qualifier, he is the only
: pitcher in modern history to feature his current statistical profile.
: Maybe this is why he’ll continue to get chances. He clearly has good
: stuff. He’s shown signs of life at times. And no one can really explain
: what’s going on. Hughes is really in a world of his own right now.
只有三個丟超過50局的投手在1901-2012年間有這樣的K/9、BB/9卻有這樣的HR/9
如果單挑K/9 > 8.5、BB/9 < 2.5來看Hughes則是唯一一個



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◆ From: 118.168.96.203
推 ImpactBlue  :我對他還是充滿期待 這個瓶頸他過了就會很強大
→ ImpactBlue  :他真的需要磨練他的變速球 會是很好的輔助武器
→ ImpactBlue  :只有曲球和速球能用的話 很難會有什麼配球模式可言
→ ImpactBlue  :有效的第三球種 對一個SP而言很重要
推 Sechslee    :謝翻譯， 我想問為什麼愛硬拼是Hughes適合當RP的理由
→ Sechslee    :卻又是Joba不適合當SP的理由?
→ Sechslee    :                 *RP
推 pikachu123  :應該是當RP比較可以一直塞速球
推 sycstyle    :RP可以全力催球速 而且通常打者只遇的到一次
推 yamatai     :曲球(有時變速)有時候可以一整場沒有任何一個揮空
→ yamatai     :有時又可以揮空一堆。真的是品質不穩定
→ yamatai     :這都是一場丟個十幾二十顆的喔
→ ImpactBlue  :曲球的掌握度不佳 是真的搞得捕手很忙
→ ImpactBlue  :變速球只要出手像直球就好 不一定要用來當決勝球
→ ImpactBlue  :困惑打者 讓他們打不好即可 不必強求K掉他們
→ ImpactBlue  :二號和三號球種仍然要繼續丟 搞不好哪天會開竅.....
→ RookieRun   :那段似乎是說支持Joba待在牛棚的人
推 linmelissa  :休斯這樣...唉