[外電]David Phelps,The Most Tradable Piece?

[iwillloveyou (darren79525)]

全文: http://tinyurl.com/7fk76xa      作者 Michael Eder , July 6 , 2012

Is David Phelps The Most Tradable Piece This July?
                                               by MICHAEL EDER on JULY 6, 2012


It’s July, and as Yankee fans, we’re all wondering who’s available at the
trade deadline. Matt looked at Cole Hamels a couple days ago, Mike Axisa over
at RAB likes Ramon Hernandez, and Steve Goldman at Pinstripe Alley took an
interest in personal favorite Chase Headley. What makes this time of year so
much fun are the countless trade rumors and proposals to consider, but most
people don’t consider the expenses it takes to make these types of trades
actually happen. Without Jesus Montero, the Yankees are in an unfamiliar
situation, without a clear tradable piece.

現在是七月，身為一個洋基球迷，我們都知道哪些球員在交易大限前是可以交易的。就像
Matt 幾天前寫了篇 Cole Hamels的文章, Mike Axisa 喜愛 Ramon Hernandez ,
Steve Goldman　對　Chase Headley 相當感興趣。
無數的交易乳摸還有建議、考慮是否該做出交易正是讓這一切如此有趣的原因，但大多數
人都覺得我們(今年)付出的包裹根本不會讓交易發生啦。
在沒有了Jesus Montero後, 洋基就像處在一個陌生的情況, 我們缺少了那塊最重要的交
易拼圖。


Yesterday, Baseball America released their top 50 midseason prospects, with
Mason Williams (28), Gary Sanchez (30), and Tyler Austin (39) placing for the
Yankees. While these three positional Single-A players have an incredible
amount of upside, and would most certainly be expendable from the Yankees’
 perspective, other teams prefer to target players closer to the majors. The
more mature and more tradable Yankee prospects, Manny Banuelos and Dellin
Betances, have fallen due to inefficiency and injury, and selling now would
be selling low.  When considering the type of package the Phillies want for
Cole Hamels or the Cubs for Matt Garza, the Yankees no longer have that
highly desired major league ready top 10 prospect, and it’s hard to imagine
who teams could fall in love with. But there is one players who might fit
some of the mold, and that’s David Phelps.

就在昨天，棒球美國發布了他們所認為的　季中前五十大新秀，洋基有 Mason Williams
(28). Gary Sanchez (30). Tyle Austin (39) 名列榜單。雖然這三位年輕新秀在1A展示了
他們旺盛的進攻火力，也讓洋基對他們的期望愈加提高，但其他隊想要的會是離大聯
盟較近的球員。較成熟也更具交易價值的洋基潛力新秀－雙Ｂ因為不穩定和痛痛困擾導
致他們現在處於交易的低點。當考慮要去跟費城換黑魔使、百年換Garza的包裹時，洋基
不再有靠近大聯盟的前十名新秀，很難想像這樣可以吸引誰。但有一個人滿足這樣的條件
，那就是 David Phelps。


The 25 year old right hander was only a 14th round pick in the 2008 draft,
and he never landed on any top 100 lists. Phelps always produced quality
numbers and starts in his minor league career, but it wasn’t until the last
couple of years that he better developed his secondary pitches that lead to
better strikeout numbers. After shoulder problems last year, the starter made
a strong comeback in the Arizona Fall League. This season, he finally
received some praise from FanGraphs, as well as John Sickels, who ranked him
the Yankees 7th best starter with a B- grade.

2008年選秀第十四輪選進，現年25歲的右投手的他，從沒有進入百大新秀之中。從小聯盟
開始他就一直穩定的保持著不錯的數字，但他在幾年前該一直沒辦法進步他的第二個主要
球種來提升的他的三振數字。去年他從肩傷中康復回來後，在秋季聯盟捲土重來。
這個球季他終於從 FanGraphs 獲得一些好評，John Sickels也將它列在洋基第七好的先發
投手，級別為 B-。

Phelps has built his biggest trade value this year, posting a 3.05 ERA, a 9.1
K/9, a 8.1 H/9, and a 3.7 BB/9 in 41.1 IP as a starter and reliever. He seems
to have lucked out a bit this year, posting a 4.38 FIP and an 86.4 LOB%, but
producing like this in Yankee Stadium in the AL East is no easy feat. With CC
Sabathia scheduled to make his next start, David Phelps was seemingly hasted
away to Double-A yesterday, despite a strong but shortened performance,
striking out 8 Rays on Wednesday. While the move has something to do with
adding Darnell McDonald to the 25-man roster, it also has something to do
with Phelps’ trade value. Stretching Phelps out as a starter means he can be
sold as a starter, which obviously gives him more value than selling him as a
long reliever. It’s hardly a coincidence the Yankees have chosen to do this
in the trade months of June and July.

Phelps 已經在今年建立了他在今年的最大交易價值，先發救援合計在41.1局中繳出了
3.05 ERA 8.1H/9 9.1K/9 3.7BB/9 的成績。他似乎走運了，4.38 FIP 和 86.4% 的殘壘率
，但在美東、在洋基球場繳出這樣的是件不容易的壯舉。隨著 CC Sabathia 計畫去投他
的下一場先發時，Phelps 則在昨天被下放到 2A，繳出了雖然短了點但是完美的成績單，在
禮拜三 K 掉8位光芒2A隊的選手。在球隊計畫把 Darrell McDonald 放進25人名單中，
這也讓球隊的交易價值做了點調整。把他視為先發投手代表他會被當作先發投手來交易，
這可遠比把他當成能吃長局數的後援投手的價值高上許多。
洋基在 6.7 月這種常發生交易的月份做出這樣的安排這很難讓人覺得只是個巧合。

The raw numbers are there for Phelps, and his surprising success is starting
to look a little bit like Ivan Nova’s of last year. When Nova started the
2011 season, he posted strong numbers in the first half, but many doubted it
would continue with his FIP hinting at regression. Through adding the slider,
Nova only started to look like the real deal in the second half of last year.
When evaluating Phelps, I think it’s fair to be on either side of the
debate, whether you believe he’ll follow the same path as Nova or regress to
his FIP numbers. Personally, there’s nothing about Phelps’ secondary
pitches that impress me. While his slider is hard, it lacks horizontal
movement, and looks more like a cutter, earning him a 10.4% whiff rate. The
curveball also only breaks about 3 inches into left handed hitters, and has
earned him an 11.8% whiff rate. Somehow he’s produced a 9.1 K/9 in his first
41.1 major league innings, more than he ever produced in the minors. While I
don’t expect it to continue, I didn’t expect Nova’s success to continue
either.

Phelps 繳出真實的數據，他那驚奇地成功有點像去年的 Ivan Nova 的表現。
他在上半季繳出了很漂亮的數字，許多人認為隨著FIP的回歸會讓他跌回谷底。
但，他加入了滑球， Nova 從下半季看起來就像個真貨。當評估 Phelps 時,
我覺得把他跟 Nova 的案例來討論會是公平的，選擇去相信他會像 Nova 一樣或是會回歸
到他的FIP數字顯示他是個假貨。我自己是悲觀的那方，我無法被他的第二球路所吸引。
雖然他的滑球尾勁很好，但他缺乏橫向移動的位移，看起來更像是一個卡特球，給了他
10.4% 的揮棒落空比率。曲球在面對左打者只製造出三英吋的位移，給了他11.8% 的揮棒
落空比率。但不知道為何他在他前41.1局的投球中，他有著 9.1K/9 ，遠較他在小聯盟
的任何一年都要高。我不認為可以期待他有這樣的表現，就像當初我也不期待 Nova 會繼
續成功下去一樣。

With Sabathia coming back, Phelps becomes the sixth starter in an
organization that already has 7th starter DJ Mitchell, 8th starter Adam
Warren, and Andy Pettitte coming back sometime in September. If the Yankees
choose to sell David Phelps and one of the three High-A prospects for a
pitcher, they’re losing very little depth, and starting to put together a
good base package. If the team can find a believer, it would seem that David
Phelps is the most tradable piece this July.

隨著CC歸隊，Phelps 將變成球隊的排行第六的先發投手但早就有了第七號DJ Mitchell
甚至八號先發 Adam Warrem　，還有派提特將在九月歸隊。
如果洋基決定把他 加上在把那三支在高階1A出賽的其中一隻當作配菜去交易一個投手，他
們將只會損失一點點的深度，但有個很不錯的交易包裹。
如果球隊找的到任何一個相信 Phelps 的買主，看來他會是七月中洋基最好的交易籌碼。


－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－

　　　外電，大家看看就好。　

      我是不太想交易掉他，畢竟我們的七號八號先發還滿容易
　　　
      變發球機的.......

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◆ From: 114.38.241.22
※ 編輯: iwillloveyou    來自: 114.38.241.22        (07/10 01:57)
推 linmelissa  :你的翻譯有些Phelps都拼錯= =還有是"Ivan"...
※ 編輯: iwillloveyou    來自: 114.38.241.22        (07/10 01:59)
→ linmelissa  :改了，可是Nova名字沒改...
→ iwillloveyou:我習慣發文後再確認一下打字的地方
→ iwillloveyou:只是沒想到有人這麼快就發現了lol
推 s910        :他也換不到很大咖的選手
推 JasonMao    :這兩篇中文部分的"Sanchez"也都拼錯
                                      已更正
※ 編輯: iwillloveyou    來自: 114.38.241.22        (07/10 02:06)
推 pikachu123  :他的進階數據真的不好看 很像假貨 tERA高達 4.99
→ pikachu123  :像在是高點能拿來交易也是不錯
推 prayer513   :沒增強手臂強度就只是個適合長中繼的人選
推 noahlin     :如果可以換到好貨就換吧 高點賣出
推 yamatai     :交易+1
推 joe0726     :看起來目前是在高點沒錯...
推 howard612   :我比較希望能補充農場深度...看到自家的農場深度
→ howard612   :會感到有點擔憂
推 dp44        :如果能換到好選手當然換 農場深度我們只能靠選秀
→ dp44        :總不可能拿即戰力去換農產品......
推 mightymouse :農場深度是交易賣家才有辦法考慮,而洋基從來不是
推 asd831129   :第4段 LOB%是殘壘率  滾地球率86.4%也太扯XD
                                    謝謝指正, 不說還沒注意到QQ
※ 編輯: iwillloveyou    來自: 114.38.241.22        (07/11 04:50)