[農場][JS] Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2011

[VaROne (有誰在高山銀行)]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/11/27/1839272/washington-nationals-top-20-prospects-for-2011


Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2011

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too
concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past
the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you
want to emphasize.

Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics
to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and
long-term potential.


Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2011

1) Bryce Harper, OF, Grade A: The hype is justified.

2) Derek Norris, C, Grade B+: Could be another Mickey Tettleton or Gene
Tenace, low batting average slugger with a high walk rate. I am more
optimistic about his glove than some people.

3) Danny Espinosa, INF, Grade B: Borderline B+. Don't expect a great batting
average, but should do everything else well. A lot of people seem to like him
slightly more than I do, but I worry that the batting average and OBP may be
lower than expected.

4) Sammy Solis, LHP, Grade B: Probably won't need much minor league time.

5) A.J. Cole, RHP, Grade B: One of my favorite high school pitchers from the
2010 draft, I like the fact they put out the money to sign him.

6) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Like the glove. The bat I have mixed feelings
about, expect some good years and some bad ones.

7) Robbie Ray, LHP, Grade B-: Another '10 high school pitcher I like a lot,
projectable and athletic lefty. Grade is aggressive.

8) Michael Burgess, OF, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Power, arm strength, don't
expect batting average.

9) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+: Intriguing speed demon, small-ball guy, bunts,
fields well. Will he hit at higher levels?

10) Rich Hague, SS, Grade C+: I like the bat, but the glove looks like a
problem.

11) Cole Kimball, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like he can help in relief very
quickly.

12) J.P. Ramirez, OF, Grade C+: Breakthrough candidate with the bat.

13) Chris Marrero, 1B, Grade C+: Well, he can hit...but probably not enough
to be a first baseman for a good team.

14) Steve Lombardozzi, 2B, Grade C+: I seem to like him more than other
people, but the guy can field and has hit well for two years.

15) Brad Meyers, RHP, Grade C+: Strike-thrower who has been a favorite of
mine for awhile, missed most of season with a foot injury>

16) Brad Peacock, RHP, Grade C+: FIPs are consistently better than his ERAs,
and he has a good arm.

17) A.J. Morris, RHP, Grade C+: I like him better than the numbers say I
should.

18) Tyler Moore, 1B, Grade C: I realize that other sources and most Nationals
fans rank him much higher, probably due to his hot second half. But he's
older than Marrero, a level behind him, and I don't like the reports about
holes in his swing or his BB/K ratio.

19) Tom Milone, LHP, Grade C: Great Double-A numbers of course despite lack
of stuff. I might be underestimating him.

20) Daniel Rosenbaum, LHP, Grade C: Tom Milone Part Two?

OTHERS OF NOTE: Adrian Alaniz, RHP; Justin Bloxom, 1B; Adam Carr, RHP; Paul
Demny, RHP; Dave Freitas, C; Tyler Hanks, RHP; Destin Hood, OF; Taylor
Jordan, RHP; Blake Kelso, INF; Jeff Kobernus, 2B; Jason Martinson, INF;
Yunesky Maya, RHP; Randolph Oduber, OF; Tanner Roark, RHP; Atahualpa
Severino, LHP; Josh Smoker, LHP; Josh Wilkie, RHP; Rob Wort, RHP.

I fully buy into Bryce Harper, and I don't know what else to say about him
really. If he keeps his head on straight and avoids injuries, he's going to
be excellent.

Beyond him, there isn't a huge amount of upside, beyond the exceptions of
projectable high school arms A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray. Norris and Espinosa
look like strong productive regulars though they won't win batting titles.
There are several guys who could be good utility infielders, some who should
be useful mid-to-back-end rotation guys, several potential bullpen options
and role players.

It isn't a bad system by any means, but an awful lot rides on the shoulders
of Bryce Harper.


QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or
superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars,
if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in
some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will
develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the
majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something
positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who
are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few
Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end
up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond
directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to
develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much
better than expected.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader;
Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn
out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the
full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells
you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very
impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role
player.


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 124.9.134.227
推 s9527206:結論：各方面都不差，但也沒特別好。Harper 獨挑大樑 XD
推 s9527206:不知道整體來看能不能擠進前15 0.0？
推 witchdoctor:Norris還是卡在手套阿...
推 Ryushuier:話說  王建建民有進一步消息說;可能不留在國民了
→ Ryushuier:如果有其他隊搶的話
推 s9527206:王爸「可能」明年5月才有辦法回來，而且還不保證身手能夠
推 s9527206:恢復，不續約很合理。
推 s9527206:假使給了仲裁，結果明年5月還是得繼續復健不就糗大了Zzzz
推 s9527206:目前看到的外電大都推測會重新簽署一張價格較低的合約，
推 s9527206:所以就看王爸願不願意降薪續留了Zzzz
→ bleaf:不用可能  他已經不續約了
推 WuAShan:如預期的Non-tender~不知道新的約會怎麼簽
→ Ryushuier:不一定  說不定會同意 低約