Re: [情報] Lucas Giolito 球探報告

[Alif (jkjk )]

※ 引述《VaROne (One)》之銘言：
: Ht: 6-6
: Wt: 230
: B/T: R/R
: HS: Harvard Westlake
: HS Grad: 2012
: City: Santa Monica
: State: CA
: Country: United States

Giolito的基本資料：
身高：6呎6吋  體重：230磅  投/打：右投右打
高中：Harvard Westlake(2012應屆畢)
出身：美國、加州、Santa Monica

: 1/17/12: If you are a believer in writing scripts before the event, the next
: six months of Lucas Giolito’s life, and indeed potentially the next 20
: years, is outstanding script material. Of course, Giolito is no stranger to
: scripts. His mother is well known actress Lindsay Frost, his father, Rick, is
: one of the icons of the computer game industry (former EA Vice President,
: co-founder of Trilogy Studios).

(本文於2012.1.17撰寫)
如果你喜歡編劇本的話，未來半年，以至於未來的20年，Lucas Giolito的人生絕對是
很好的材料。他其實跟劇本這玩意兒並不陌生，因為他媽媽是知名演員Lindsay Frost，
而他爸更是電玩工業界的代表性人物。(前EA副總裁、Trilogy Studios創辦人之一)

: For those who are serious about the draft, it's a well-known fact that there
: has never been a high school right handed pitcher picked with the first overall
: pick. That dates back to 1965 and encompasses many past (Ryan, Gossage, Sutter,
: Eckersley, etc) and future (Maddox, Smoltz, Hoffman, maybe Clemens, etc.) Hall
: of Famers and even more Cy Young Award winners. There have been some teases the
: past two years in Jamison Taillon (No. 2 overall in 2010) and Dylan Bundy
: (No. 4 in 2011) but the last really serious candidate was Josh Beckett in 1999,
: who went down to the wire with Josh Hamilton to be the then Tampa Bay Devil Rays
: top pick. The right series of events and circumstances has to come together
: just right to have a teenage right handed pitcher selected first overall.
: Having that type of talent is the first obvious criteria and Giolito
: unquestionably has that (more on that below).

有認真在關注選秀的人都知道，高校右投從來沒有拿下過選秀狀元。
從1965年開始的大聯盟選秀，許多名人堂、準名人堂等級的投手，以及多位賽揚強投
都沒能得到這項殊榮。前兩年已經算很有機會的了，Jamison Taillon拿下2010第二順位，
(按：因為對上了Harper^^!) Dylan Bundy則是拿下2011的第四順位。
其實真正有機會的是1999年的Josh Beckett，可惜被Josh Hamilton搶走了魔鬼魚(光芒)
的狀元籤。究竟誰有辦法打破這(小)魔咒呢?

顯然這個人必須是個天才，而Giolito就符合這樣的標準，無庸置疑。

: But just as importantly, there has to be the right team, the right competitors
: (or lack thereof) for the pick and the right signability. The new CBA and the
: bonus slots should eliminate much of the major signability posturing and
: gamesmanship that can affect the top pick. The Astros, holders of the first
: pick, should have no inhibitions about picking Giolito based on their personnel
: (remember, new GM Jeff Luhnow picked Shelby Miller out of high school while
: with St. Louis and certainly enjoyed the benefits of having former HS first
: rounder Chris Carpenter on the Cardinals staff).

當然要完成這項成就，對的球團、當時的競爭新秀、簽約可能性等等因素也很重要。
新的CBA規則以及簽約金限制，讓許多會原本會影響狀元籤的假動作和怪招被消除了。
擁有第一順位選秀權的太空人隊，應該可以在沒有意外的狀況下簽下Giolito。(因為
太空人的新GM過去在金鶯的時期就有挖掘高中新秀的傾向，例如：Carpenter)

: As for the comparisons for the top pick, I think it will come down to Giolito
: vs. Stanford’s Mark Appel. The advantage for Giolito (or potentially Appel
: for that matter) is that the scouting directors and cross checkers will
: frequently see both pitchers throw within a couple days of each other, maybe on
: back to back days, and be able to make an immediate comparison. They will see
: similar stuff, with the advantage potentially belonging to the pitcher who is
: almost exactly three years younger. Giolito’s baseball package is certainly
: without question. He’s a very young senior and won't turn 18 years old until
: after the July 13 signing deadline.

至於誰能和Giolito競爭呢?我覺得是史丹福大學的Appel。Giolito的優勢(同時也是Appel
也具備的)，就是各球團的球探經常到場看這兩位新秀比賽，有時甚至是今天看完這位，
隔天緊接著看另一位，以便於他們做即時性的比較。他們應該會看到類似的投手特質，
不過Giolito贏在他比Appel幾乎年輕了三歲。他的投球水準沒問題，而他到7/13的簽約
期限前還沒滿18歲呢!

: He's a well proportioned 6-foot-6, 240 pounds and really doesn't need to get
: that much stronger, just maintain his looseness and athleticism. If he were to
: get stronger while maintaining that looseness, that will be really scary. He
: threw a series of short outings this fall and was consistently in the 95-98
: mph range with his fastball….as in rarely falling below 95 mph, with reports
: of him touching 100. He works downhill very well with his fastball and while
: he could command the pitch better, he doesn't throw with much effort.
: Despite the incredible power behind his fastball, most everyone agrees that
: his best future pitch could be his curveball, just as Nolan Ryan's curveball
: was actually a nastier pitch than his 100 mph heater. He throws his
: traditional version of the pitch in the low-80s and it is deep and sharp, a
: true knee buckler for any hitter at any level when throw properly. He also
: has been working on developing a harder version of the pitch thrown in the
: 84-87 range that he calls his 'wipeout' curve. Giolito throws a change up on
: rare occasions but that isn't really a present consideration in evaluating
: him.

他的身材比例很好，6呎6吋，240磅，應該不必再練得更壯了，只要維持平常的休閒和
運動時間配置就可以。如果在這樣的節奏下他還能練得更壯，那真是夠嚇人的了。
去年秋天賽季他投了幾場，速球平均是95-98英哩，很少低於95，最高有到100英哩!
他不怎麼費力就可以把球速投出來，而且控球也不錯。儘管他的球速展現相當的爆發力，
大多數人一致認為他未來最強的球種是曲球，就像名人堂強投Nolan Ryan的曲球實際上
比他100哩的速球更噁心是一樣的狀況。

Giolito的曲球球速可以壓到80哩以下，變化幅度大而且犀利，投得好的話足以壓制任何
打者。而他正在嘗試一種的新的曲球，球速大約在84-87哩之間，他稱之為
"wipeout curve"(請自由發揮^^)。

Giolito偶爾也會投一些變速球，不過目前並非大家關注的重點。

: When it gets right down to it, though, it might not be the Astros decision,
: it will be Giolito and his family's. The money, even at $7.2 million for the
: first pick, probably isn’t going to be a deciding factor. Giolito is a very
: good student and is the type of young man who could put the value of the
: college experience at UCLA above any other consideration. And it's certainly
: worth noting that Gerrit Cole entered UCLA in 2008 after turning down high
: first round money and emerged three years later as the first pick in the 2011
: draft. It will be a fascinating script all spring and into the early summer,
: that's for sure.
: http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=268321

不過事情會怎麼發展，其實不見得會是太空人隊可以決定的。Giolito本人和他的家人
才是關鍵。就算捧著7.2M並在第一順位選中他，也不見得就能簽下他。Giolito是一名
優秀的好學生，而且認為大學(UCLA)的人生經驗對他而言是無可取代的。

當然，不久之前也有一個案例就是Gerrit Cole(2008第28順位，但最後拒絕洋基的邀約)，
他放棄了高額的選秀簽約金而到UCLA就讀，三年後被海盜隊選中，拿下2011的選秀狀元。

總之，接下來這幾個月的劇情一定很精彩，我們接著看下去…

--
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◆ From: 111.240.130.83
推 VaROne:push
推 rhapsody70:國民這幾年選秀都結果都不錯 特別是小史跟Harper
→ rhapsody70:兩個都是真貨 而且有話題又是即戰力 還有不錯的臉
→ rhapsody70:這4~5年值得期待
→ rhapsody70:有大大願意提供一下這幾年國民的選秀名單嗎?
推 ug945:http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/draft/draft.jsp
推 ug945:我想這夠詳細了
→ Alif:簽得下來再說吧…大學生活雖然比較不精實，但叫你放棄你願意?
→ Alif:但如果是想走棒球這條路，為了肘傷，為了紀錄，還是進國民吧!
→ Alif:剛看了一下，原來Harper 17歲就跳進大學了…還有這招!
推 ug945:harper那個不是一般的大學 應該是類似二專
推 VaROne:CC=社區學院
推 vg175:不少美國人都認為大學學位很重要 要為可能的將來準備退路
→ vg175:不管是職業生涯結束退休後的人生規劃 甚至根本沒進過職業
→ vg175:如果申請通過的大學還願意提供高額獎學金 誘因就更大了
推 ColbyRasmus:通常高中生的合約裡面會要求大學獎學金
→ ColbyRasmus:打到最後養不起來，還可以回學校讀書